Wednesday June 8 2022 Forecast (7:51AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

This morning starts overcast and damp / humid. In some places, it’s quite rainy – specifically I speak of a band of moderate to heavy showers from the South Shore to Narragansett Bay moving to the east, crossing Cape Cod into mid morning, while there are just isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. All of the shower activity will head offshore as a front clears the area by later this morning, after which we will see improvement – breaks in the clouds first, and then even a fair amount of clearing / sun this afternoon. While the air will dry out somewhat, the temperature will respond to the emerging sun and it will be a mild to warm afternoon. Our drier interlude will be short-lived, however, as a wave of low pressure races toward our region tonight and brings another slug of rainfall, this one fairly widespread and at least briefly moderate to heavy, during Thursday morning and midday, before it moves away. Do the clouds break as quickly Thursday as they do today? Probably not, but we still should work enough dry air into the region to see at least breaks of sun as the afternoon goes on. Complete clearing arrives as a result of drier air moving into the region behind the departed low Thursday night and lasts through Friday, which will be a nice day. A weak bubble of high pressure moving in to provide Friday’s nice weather will hang around into Saturday as well before sliding offshore. The next rain threat for the coming weekend has been one I’ve been doubting for a few days now, of the opinion that the system will be weaker and further south than it first appeared on guidance. I still feel this way, but the guidance is also (and has been for several runs) trending in this direction, giving me a little more confidence in this prognostication. What does that mean? It means that I think other than a brief rain chance near the South Coast Saturday night, if that even happens, the bulk of the weekend is dry. What we do have to watch for is the arrival of upper level low pressure from the west, which if quick enough can turn Sunday unsettled before it concludes. I’ll be watching for the timing and integrity of this feature as we get closer to the weekend, and fine-tune appropriately…

TODAY: Cloudy start including widespread moderate to heavy showers and a slight risk of thunder in southeastern MA and scattered to isolated showers elsewhere, ending from west to east by late morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny midday-afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W, occasional higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain chances increase toward dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH then becoming variable to calm.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms in the morning, tapering off / ending southwest to northeast midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible as the afternoon goes on. Highs 70-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH morning, S at similar speeds but gusty afternoon, shifting to W late in the day or evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain chance South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Upper level low pressure brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms June 13 before high pressure moves in for a few days with fair weather. Another system approaching from the west increases the chance of unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Overall weak westerly air flow with a tendency, eventually, for more high pressure south of New England. After a transition with a couple of unsettled episodes, the feel of summer may be here before this forecast period concludes, just in time for the arrival of summer itself.

42 thoughts on “Wednesday June 8 2022 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK…

    0.55 (Taunton) in the first downpour at 5:30.
    Middleborough had heavy rain for a time around 7 am.

  2. Thanks TK !

    I’d venture we received between .5 and 1 inch during the downpours this morning.

    Several repetitive heavy showers, one of which was really intense and created some deep puddles and brief streams cascading down the sides of streets.

  3. It’s been a little while since I’ve had to do a WBZ radio anchor oops… But they make up for that one today ladies and gentlemen…

    Right after they run their forecast about the rain coming to an end this morning and nicer weather this afternoon and evening before the rain returns tomorrow morning, the anchor advises everybody to bring their umbrellas to the Paul McCartney concert as it looks quite wet this evening. No, no, it actually looks quite dry this evening and quite wonderful for a concert outside. 😉

    2. Here comes the Sun, doo-doo-doo-doo
      Here comes the Sun and I say
      It’s all right

    1. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBAF.html

      As you can see on the Westfield ob (western MA), the dewpoint dropped from the mid 60s to the mid 50s in the last hour.

      So, yes, there is some drier air to our west.

      I think it can get to Boston to Providence for a while late afternoon/this evening. I’m not so sure southeast of that line.

      It will be short lived, as dew points should climb back into the low-mid 60s tomorrow for a while ahead of the next low.

    1. I just checked the radar when I noticed the sun disappeared behind clouds. Thanks for explaining what I am seeing on radar. It seems different from typical lines

    2. Nice. Shows it well. NOW IF only our dp would respond!(@*(#&()!@&#*(&!()@#*()!@&#*(&!@)(#*()!@&#*(!&@#()&!)(@#&)(!@&#)(!&@(#&!)(@#&)(!@&#)(!&@(#&!)(@#&)!(@#&)(!@&#()!@#(

  12. That final line is right on time and right as I expected it to look. That is the front.

  15. Turned out beautiful. Just shut AC’s down. Temperature is in the low 70’s with a dew point in the low 50’s here.

  16. Signal today and I feel its been there a couple of days now ……

    In the late mid to early long range ….

    Central US ridge, retrograding some with very strong NW ring of fire flow in the eastern Great Lakes to central mid-Atlantic.

    Possible MCS, severe weather derechio set-up from eastern great Lakes to central mid-Atlantic, if pattern were to verify.

    Probably well to the southwest of New England.

  17. The guidance continues to come toward my scenario of a non-event Saturday.

    Had a feeling the last few days the medium range models were keying on the wrong energy. It’s later Sunday and Monday that look unsettled to me.

  18. ECMWF and GEM have also joined the “no rain Saturday” camp. That’s pretty much all of them now.

    If you dig into the ensemble individuals, you can still find some wetter solutions in there, but the majority are favoring the drier scenario.

  20. Imagine how busy Boston will be this evening…

    Lovely weather so a lot of outdoor dining at places like F.H.M. & the North End, plus you have Paul McCartney’s 2nd show at Fenway and the Celtics at the Garden.

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