Thursday June 9 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

I often use the quote “all systems fail in a drought” when in or talking about a drought. You know that obviously that’s never 100% true, and even though only part of our region (as of last report) is classified in drought at this time, drought or no drought, this system is not a failure today. A developing low pressure wave passing through the region is already bringing a nice slug of rain, the first associated with its warm front this morning. This round will be the most widespread and deliver about a half to an inch and a half of rainfall to the region, including the potential for some embedded thunder. “Round 2” is not going to be as widespread or long-lasting, but in the form of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong/severe, with the system’s cold front that will be pulling through the region early to mid afternoon. After that, we’re done with the rain threat from it, and drier air flows in to clear us out through tonight, setting up a nice day on Friday as high pressure builds toward the region from the west. This high pressure area, while not a strong one, will be over us Friday night into Saturday before sliding off to the east. During this time, a wave of low pressure will form and pass well south of the region, and may only add some clouds to the sky, but will bring no rain threat, so Saturday is definitely to be the pick of the coming weekend. But don’t get too nervous about Sunday by my saying that. I think we salvage a good part of the weekend with dry weather the majority of Sunday. As an upper level low pressure area and associated surface low and frontal system approach from the west later Sunday, we will see clouds roll in and the chance of rainfall increase, but based on current timing it looks like most of that will occur Sunday night. The upper low still has to cross our region Monday, based on current expecting timing, so that day carries the chance of at least some pop up showers and potential thunderstorms.

TODAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms in the morning, tapering off / ending southwest to northeast by midday. Variably cloudy midday through mid afternoon with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to locally severe. Sun/cloud mix later in the day. Humid through early afternoon – dew point 60s. Highs 70-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH morning, S at similar speeds but gusty afternoon, shifting to W late in the day or evening.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 59-66. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

High pressure builds in from Canada with fair and seasonably mild weather the first few days of this period, coolest temperatures at the coast. A low pressure system approaching and arriving from the west later in the period brings the chance of unsettled weather back to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Overall weak westerly air flow with a tendency, eventually, for more high pressure south of New England. An initial push of mild and dry Canadian air would be followed by a transition period with clouds and a shower chance, then perhaps the feel of summer by the end of the period.

56 thoughts on “Thursday June 9 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK

    I’d forgotten how wonderful it is to wake up listening to the sound of soft rain. 1.16 of the liquid gold here so far.

  9. Looks like the last of the heavy bands will pass through the north shore between 10-10:30 AM.

    FWIW, I was told NOAA has installed new NWS director as of this week or maybe last week. I should probably Google it.

    2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2022060906&fh=42

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2022060906&fh=66

      So, yes, it will be quite hot and above average.

      But, nothing that is out of the extreme, I believe.

      If someone is reckless and doesn’t take reasonable precautions, they could get themselves into trouble.

      I would say the Seattle 102-105F couple of days last summer are/were probably more deserving of this story headline.

    4. It’s headline – hype since any heatwave is potentially dangerous and deadly. But yes, it’s going to get hot as it typically does in late spring and summer there.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Appreciate the much needed rain.

    On a sports note, the Anaheim Angels collapse must be one of the worst in baseball history. This was a team with one of the best records in baseball ~2 weeks ago: 27 – 17. They’ve lost 14 straight (club record). People are comparing this to the Orioles in 1988, who, I believe, lost 18 straight to begin the season. To me, that’s not a good comparison. The Orioles in 1988 were awful (lost 107 games!), had very little talent, and at no time in the season were considered a good team.

    1. The 1988 Orioles lost their first 21 games of the season. BTW, that team finished with a better record than the 2018 or 2019 version of the Orioles.

      1. Thanks. He is here too many times during the day to count. At first if I moved, he’d fly off. But now I can take pictures and of course chat with him. 🙂

  18. I’m not sure what channel 5 was saying last night but they are definitely not on the rain train now regarding Saturday. I just saw their noon newscast.

    1. I dunno. Kelly Ann had Night Showers on her Saturday graphic this morning and at noon, but nonetheless I don’t really care 🙂 Non rain day, full speed ahead please!

  19. How much longer will the yellow pollen make everything dirty. Doesn’t it usually stop in early June?

    1. In a typical year, which this is, it’s usually between June 10 and 15 that it comes to an end.

  20. As TK has in his forecast and similar to yesterday, dewpoint front coming through central Mass with thin line of showers/storms.

  21. Ch 5 had clouds this am also.

    And that said, we having something moving in now. Dark sky, wind picking up.

    It may move just south of us

    1. Another weather event my mom talked about often. Thank you, as always, JJ for your this day in weather history

  24. My Weekend Outlook is up:

    https://stormhq.blog/2022/06/09/weekend-outlook-june-10-13-2022/

    A desperately needed and much-overdue vacation begins tomorrow. I’ll be at the Sox game Saturday night in Seattle, then when I write my Weekly Outlook late Sunday night it’ll be from the Salish Sea and the Strait of Juan de Fuca as I begin an 8-day Alaska cruise that will take me to Juneau, Skagway, Glacier Bay, Ketchikan, Victoria BC, and back to Seattle. The Weekly Outlook next Sunday night will be written from SeaTac Airport as I await my red-eye flight home. There will be no Weekend Outlook next week.

  25. Interesting NBA stat:

    In the NBA Finals, when the participants are tied 1-1, the team that wins game #3 wins the NBA title 82% of the time.

    Gas up the Duckboats? 😉

    1. There’s also 18% of the time they don’t win. Save the gas (for now). This series is far from over. 😉

      If/when the Celtics reach 4 wins in the series, THEN it’s time to gas ’em up!

  26. I saw a stat last night when the Celtics have had a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals they have never lost.

    1. Hopefully that perfect record will continue, but we’ll see……..

      No pessimism here, just being a realist. 😉

  27. I always feel when they put a stat up like that no matter what the sport is that is a jinx.
    TK I am hoping my Rangers beat the Lightning the next two games for your prediction of Rangers in 6 will happen. I think if they lose tonight the Rangers are in big trouble.

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