Saturday June 11 2022 Forecast (9:42AM)

23 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

It’s weekend time! The next-to-last weekend of spring and the second weekend of meteorological summer. So, how’s this one gonna turn out? Not bad. Not perfect. Of course your perception of how good or bad the weather is doesn’t fit into some neat rule book everybody follows. If you are a lover of hot weather, this won’t be a great weekend. If you don’t like the heat, you’ll like this weekend. If you thrive on 100% sunshine, which is rare, you’re definitely not going to find this weekend to your liking. If the weekend has to be dry with nary a drop of rain in the vicinity, well, you’ll like today, but not tomorrow. If you want the chance to dance in a spring shower, tomorrow’s your day, at least potentially. See what I’m getting at? When I refer to weather as being “nice”, I’m often just referring to fair (not unsettled, not stormy), but you’re always free to apply your own adjectives. Is it even safe for me to admit I like all weather, including being socked in with New England’s famous east wind, low overcast, fog, and drizzle? Hah! Well, we don’t have that this weekend. So, what is it we do have then? … Well, we have a weak high pressure area that controlled yesterday’s weather now slipping off to the south of our area. While we have a fairly weak wind field today, it can warm up a bit more than it did yesterday as yesterday we had a gusty westerly breeze still advecting cool air into the region. The warming will be tempered by a fair amount of high cloudiness though, streaming northeastward from a disturbance heading for the Mid Atlantic States via the Appalachian Mountains. This high cloudiness gave some areas a nice sunset last night, a beautiful sunrise this morning, and may set up yet another colorful sunset this evening. There will be a few diurnal clouds that also pop up under the high cloudiness, but I don’t expect an abundance of these and they will only add a bit of decoration to the sky. Tonight’s quiet, but more clouds will move in overnight. While we may sneak in some sunshine at times, especially in the morning, on Sunday, the cloudiness will end up thicker and the rain chance will go up as a warm front approaches. This warm front extends from a low pressure area destined to pass to our northwest. The low is a surface reflection of an upper level low that will traverse the region from west to east Sunday and Monday. The cold front from the surface low will swing through here on Monday, current timing looking like morning or midday. After a warm and more humid Sunday night in the warm sector of the low, we will keep the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms around from then until the cold front swings through, so the first half of Monday looks more unsettled than the second half for the region in general, but I may have to tweak the timing a bit on tomorrow’s update. One more disturbance swings south of the region Monday night and early Tuesday, but this has no impact on us. What will have impact on us is a ridge of high pressure building toward the East Coast and sending a surface high from Canada into our region Tuesday and Wednesday with fair weather. It will initially be breezy on Tuesday as cooler air moves in, and then with the high settling over us Wednesday, we’ll have lighter wind but the cooling will be most noticeable on the coast where a sea breeze will likely develop.

TODAY: Filtered sunshine through considerable high cloudiness. A few fair-weather clouds popping up as well. Highs 75-82, coolest along the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 59-66. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerably cloudy – best chance of sunshine in the morning. Scattered rain afternoon. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. More humid – dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms morning to midday, then sun and passing clouds. Lowering humidity afternoon. Highs 77-84. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure ridging de-amplifies somewhat and moves off the East Coast so we warm up but also increase the chance of unsettled weather as a trough and frontal system push in from the west anytime between late June 16 through June 17. A push of drier, cooler air should follow that but late in the period we may have to watch for a temporary block in the pattern as the trough moving offshore cuts off and hangs around out there. If it ends up doing it sooner or there is a little retrogression to the feature, we could be unsettled, but if far enough east, we stay dry. So there is a higher degree of uncertainty right now for the final days of astronomical spring.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

The summer solstice occurs on June 21 and the early hints for the pattern for the first days of summer is fairly dry, but lacking a lot of heat, as we keep the general air flow pattern northwesterly with a mean trough in eastern Canada and ridge of high pressure in the central US.

23 thoughts on “Saturday June 11 2022 Forecast (9:42AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    72 with filtered sun on the softball field here in Swansea. Perfect, comfortable temps for outdoor activities today.

    Looks like a somewhat quicker arrival with the rain tomorrow pthan it looked yesterday. Might affect the tournament games here tomorrow pm. But we’ll see how far they get and take it one game at a time. They are off to a good start having won the first game 12-0!

    1. Sure works for me. Until we get heat pumps in , we are paying huge dollars for our inefficient AC. I’m happy not to use it

  5. SAK – if you are reading, have a great cruise in Alaska! We are doing a cruise in mid August with the EXACT same itinerary you mentioned in your post the other day. Are you on Norwegian? Just booked a couple excursions in Juneau, Skagway, and Ketchikan yesterday. You will have to let me know how it is!

  6. Thanks you, TK. As you well know, I agree on liking all weather. I cannot imagine having the same old of anything day after day.

    Last night was spectacular. I was out on the deck with Dory until nearly 1:00 am…..until lots of noise in the brush on the hill made me think I should move inside.

  7. TK, I left you a question at the end of yesterday re rain not being more beneficial overnight. I think I understand but am not positive.

    1. Well it depends of course on how you look at it.

      The benefit of rain from an agricultural / water supply standpoint will be about the same no matter when it falls. Some might think that rain during the day would tend to evaporate more, especially if followed by sun. But the amount of difference is so tiny, it’s negligible.

      In terms of the rain falling as an impact to commuting, yes overnight is less impactful for the vast majority of folks, but of course more impactful for people who are actually driving at that time. 🙂

      1. Thank you. I was looking at it from the first point of view. All lawn care folks seem to believe that morning is the best time to water to allow water to soak in before the heat of the sun. My dad, however, watered during the day and late at night and always had a lush, green lawn. So I have always wondered and your comment to Philip prompted me to ask

  8. Good morning and thank you TK,

    Excellent discussion.

    I am perfectly fine with this weekend’s weather and I complain often. I don’t want the HHH weather, so this is GREAT!!!

    1. I almost mentioned you IN my discussion today, regarding the east wind. 😉 But I don’t even think I have to do that and people who are regulars on this blog will kind of add that part in on their own. 😉

  10. PM comments based on 12z guidance…
    No changes to my thinking at this time.
    Refer to the discussion above for additional info!
    Well, that was easy. 😉

    I’m about to head down to Quincy for their Flag Day parade, flag raising ceremony, and fireworks. This is my 2nd visit to this event, which I enjoyed very much my first time, last year – enough to head back. 🙂

    By the way, I have a certain t-shirt I sometimes wear when the Celtics play. I don’t follow basketball that much, but of course I want them to do well. These playoffs, the record when I have not been wearing this t-shirt on game day: 0-8. Their record when I have had the shirt on: 14-0. Apparently I am controlling the outcome of these games with a piece of cotton… I guess I should wear the shirt for the next game.

      1. I didn’t stop there but I am going back! That area is very photo-op heavy and I’m taking advantage of it. So I’ll check out the shop!

      1. Yes, please do! Or all we’ll have left to celebrate is Boston (54.0”) over Worcester (53.6”) for the SNOWFALL CHAMPIONSHIP 2021-22. 🙂

        Gas up the Duckboats?…or the sleds? 😉

          1. HAHA! You crack me up Mr. Philip. 🙂

            I guess we’ll see how it goes. The shirt is ready to go for tonight. It’s not even anything special. It’s a grey t-shirt with black lettering. It doesn’t even have any Celtics green on it – just their logo and an advertisement for Corona beer. I don’t even drink beer! 😉

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