Sunday June 12 2022 Forecast (8:10AM)

24 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

Quick update for your Sunday. No significant changes to yesterday’s ideas. Today’s not going to be as nice as yesterday, but it does start out very nice. High pressure offshore exerts enough influence to give us sun mixed with the clouds that are advancing ahead of a warm front. That front will eventually thicken up our cloudiness and increase the chance for showers, but while that chance does go up this afternoon, we see most of that activity tonight, along with the potential for embedded thunderstorms as the front crosses and we get into a wedge of warm, humid air. But that will be short-lived as a cold front crosses the region by midday Monday, putting an end to any rain threat. Will this be a beneficial rainfall? Not particularly. While some areas may see a moderate rainfall amount, the short-lived duration and lack of follow-up rain minimizes the benefit. High pressure brings fair weather to the region from late Monday through early Thursday as it slides slowly eastward across the Northeast. Tuesday, we’re on the cool/breezy side of it, Wednesday’s the tranquil day but has the coastal sea breezes, and Thursday we end up in the return-flow on the back side of the high and the region warms up (though not hot). By later Thursday, the next disturbance approaching from the west will at the very least increase our cloudiness, and brings a higher chance of shower and thunderstorm activity as well.

TODAY: Intervals of sun & clouds morning. Clouds dominate afternoon. Scattered light rain mid afternoon on but many areas stay mostly rain-free. Highs 74-81, coolest coast. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. More humid – dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms morning to midday, then sun and passing clouds. Lowering humidity afternoon. Highs 77-84. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

General northwesterly air flow between a low pressure trough in far eastern Canada and a ridge of high pressure across the central US, with not much movement of large-scale features. Our rain chances will be limited to disturbances traveling along this flow, with the one arriving late Thursday exiting early in this period, and perhaps another around June 20 (though the timing of these is very difficult as their formation is often dependent on thunderstorms far upstream and model guidance struggles to see these well more than a day or two in advance). The take-away, drier than average, no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

At this point I don’t see enough evidence to go for a pattern change, so more of the same in the later days of June – but only moderate confidence in this outlook. Overall idea is near to below normal for both temperatures and precipitation.

24 thoughts on “Sunday June 12 2022 Forecast (8:10AM)”

  5. A shout-out to my proofreader, Julie.
    You went above and beyond today since apparently I forgot how to spell “our”, …twice. 😀

      2. I could have gotten a cheap out by saying that I voice typed, but that would be a lie. Was a set of legitimate typographical errors. Haha!

  8. I feel like, the last couple days, the GFS has come around to reality a bit with projected 500 mb flow.

    For some time last week, future trofs looked like they belonged to an atmosphere in mid winter.

    Today’s 12z run for 500 mb flow looks more like mid June.

    Certainly not always 500 mb high pressure, but there were runs last week where the 500 mb heights over New England were occasionally falling into the low 550 dms.

    This GFS run has heights btwn 567 and 588 dm. Much more reasonable to June climatology.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    I was absent yesterday. Took the day off from the “internets” (as George W Bush once said).

    Yesterday was a splendid day for bike riding. Not hot, not cool, either. Also not too sunny. I do like having clouds around, also to block out the blistering June sun at times. It was just right.

    So far this has been my ideal June weather. I’m sure it’ll get hot and humid at some point this summer. But the longer this lasts the fewer HHH days we’ll have in aggregate.

    1. Today is a nice one. It’s even better than I forecast. Though some areas have seen some showers already, they’ve been missing in many areas and mostly near the South Coast.

      1. Indeed. Today is nice, too. I was biking near the South Coast, so perhaps I would have had a little rain today. I’m not bothered by a passing shower, though. Now, a drenching rain is another thing. October 30th, 2021, on the other hand, I got absolutely poured on, riding back from the Cambridge/Arlington line to my apartment. It was some experience.

  12. Thanks TK.

    TK – What are your thoughts regarding the firing of Bruce Cassidy? I’m somewhat surprised that you haven’t posted a response here since you are a diehard Bruins fan. I myself know very little about hockey rules but once the Bruins make the postseason then I certainly root for them to win Lord’s Stanley Cup.

    Only the Patriots do I follow game-by-game during the regular season by watching on tv as often as I am able, if I’m not at work.

    As for the Red Sox, unless they are on Fox network, I don’t bother to watch. Like the Bruins and Celtics, I wait for the postseason.

        1. I do too !

          I think they did him a favor.

          Most of their talented players will be out the first few months of the season, recovering from surgeries.

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