Monday June 13 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

A warm front moved through overnight with areas of showers and even some heavier thunderstorms, especially along the South Coast for thunder. The last of that is exiting via Cape Cod as I write this, and there’s just a chance of a quick pop-up shower as a cold front swings through the region from west to east this morning. But as we see many times when we get to this time of year, it doesn’t turn all the cool behind the “cold front”, due to down-sloping wind off the hills and mountains to our west and northwest, combined with the high sun angle. So while the humidity, which briefly spiked overnight, drops during the day, it will also become quite warm. High pressure provides fair, dry but continued fairly warm weather Tuesday, before another high center from eastern Canada sends a weak but uneventful back-door cold front through our region by early Wednesday. That day will also feature fair weather, but with a little cooler air in place. The next round of unsettled weather is due as low pressure moves east southeastward from Canada across northern New England Thursday into Friday, to a position east of New England by late Friday. This low’s warm front comes through the region Thursday evening with clouds and potential showers and thunderstorms, and much like today’s set-up, we’ll have a cold front swinging through Friday morning with a shower and thunderstorm threat. Drier but still warm air, also like today, will become dominant Friday, but we’ll have to watch for one more shower or storm as a trough goes through the region from northwest to southeast. I won’t be able to determine how great a chance that is or time it until we get closer to it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early – showers/thunderstorms exit Cape Cod. Sun/cloud mix thereafter with just a slight chance of a brief passing shower. Drying out. Highs 77-84. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible early and again midday. Less humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

The low pressure area that makes its way east of New England later this week becomes part of an omega blocking pattern for a few days including the June 18-19 weekend. Right now, I think this feature will be far enough east so while we are a little on the cooler side, we’ll be mostly dry with just the possibility of a few pop up showers / t-storms. The pattern should open up again with a return to a northwesterly flow, variable temperatures with no high heat, mostly dry but a chance of a passing shower or t-storm from time to time with disturbances moving along the flow as we finish up spring and welcome summer (solstice June 21).

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Overall pattern looks similar, northwesterly flow, no major heat, brief warm spikes and cool downs, a shower or thunderstorm threat from time to time, but largely rain-free.

35 thoughts on “Monday June 13 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    We received a couple tenths of an inch of rain around dawn, as we got into the heavy rain blob on the northern end of the thundershowers that crossed the south coast and Cape.

  4. Thanks, TK!

    The last “school Monday”!!!!! Woo-Hoo

    Thunderboomers at 4:30ish (to the west of me) and another at 5:15 to the (to the east) (Stuck in the Middle with You ~ Stealers Wheel) with 0.57″ of rain. That puts us more than 2″ in the last week.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ln7Vn_WKkWU

    1. It’s interesting how many people my age don’t know that is Gerry Rafferty singing. 🙂

      1. And perhaps some my age. I often think of the song but could not have told you who was singing. If you go back a decade or two, I can most often identify artists and year.

  5. Thanks, TK! Great explanation of why it isn’t necessarily cool in the wake of a cold front. 🙂

    1. Have a great time, North! Mrs. Fantastic and I were in Nashville a couple of weeks ago celebrating our 35th anniversary and my 40th college reunion from Vanderbilt. I hadn’t been back in nearly 25 years! Caught a couple of Vanderbilt baseball games and did some honky-tonkin’ on lower Broadway!!!! 🙂
      We had a blast! It’s a great and fun town!

      2. How cool Captain! It is a nice place to visit. We are celebrating my daughter’s 21st but she has been sick most of the time. We are going to try to go to lower Broadway today if she is feeling better.

        1. Hope she’s feeling better, North! Not fun to be sick when on vacation, especially in 100º heat and humidity!

  12. Yesterday, after seeing the 12z GFS, I commented that its 500 mb heights looked more in line with June.

    Well, its 00z and 12z runs now have reverted back to very meridional/amplified flow. So, evidently, yesterday’s 12z GFS was an outlier.

    Closed low of 552 dm Saturday. Could struggle to make 70F under a very cool airmass aloft. And that’s struggling to make 70F with a NW land breeze, not because of a sea-breeze.

      1. Yes, in terms of having very comfortable temps and low humidities.

        Any morning sun, I think, would bubble up plenty of cumulus clouds and perhaps as scattered afternoon shower. In the shade from clouds, it will probably feel cool compared to the temps this week.

      1. Some are clouds. Western Alaska, near the low and just to the east of the Alaska/Canada border.

        But that brownish look in the center and right-center is smoke.

        1. There’s a fairly large fire in central Alaska. It’s their main fire season, so it’s not really a surprise. This one is in an area that’s been rather dry.

    1. Indeed. Some strong to severe storms rolling through the area last evening. The Great Lakes, Midwest, and Mid Atlantic are in the firing line in this pattern. Trough / ridge / trough pattern that’s fairly stable as well. This same pattern keeps us from being hot, while the middle of the US heats up nicely. Meanwhile the PNW has been anomalously cool and wet.

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