Thursday June 16 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

An area of high pressure over our region shifts offshore today. A broad area of low pressure will be moving eastward to our north later today through Friday, first dragging a warm front toward and through the region tonight, followed by a cold front on Friday. The cloudiness that is thickest in western portions of the WHW forecast area early this morning is the result of a thunderstorm complex passing to our west, moving to the southeast in the northwest flow pattern we’ve been in. This complex was fairly well-forecast by the short range guidance, maybe just a little later timing than forecast, but these things can be a bane of forecasters as they can be very unpredictable in location and timing / movement. Anyway, despite some cloudiness from it, this particular cluster will not bother the region as it heads southeastward, getting only as close as western CT and western to central Long Island before heading seaward. The warm front will generate some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across our area during tonight, but for most of us this doesn’t look like a very heavy rainfall event. The cold front on Friday will have some heat and humidity to work with but also some limiting factors in the atmosphere to battle, so the showers and storms generated by it may be limited, with best shot at a quick and potentially strong storm being in the southeastern half of the WHW region from the NH Seacoast southwestward to eastern CT and eastward from there. This would occur over a few hour’s time on Friday afternoon but in any one location a shower or storm would be rather brief. Friday will be the “hottest” day we’ve had in a while, not exactly burning it up by any stretch, but it will feel pretty toasty in comparison to recent moderate temperatures. Don’t get used to that warmth though, because we have a good shot of cool air on the way for this weekend. This will take place as low pressure sits and spins east of New England for a couple days, and combines with high pressure to the west of New England for a Canadian delivery. The price to pay will be some gusty wind at times, and the chance of a couple showers popping up. It’s hard to say where and when any showers will occur, but right now I lean toward Sunday being the better chance and eastern areas being the highest chance. But again don’t cancel any outdoor plans over the weekend. Simply keep an eye on the weather. Some moderation is due by Monday with a narrow area of high pressure bringing us fair weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Humid – dew point 60+. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region. Any thunderstorms may be strong. Humid morning – dew point 60+, then lowering humidity late-day. Highs 81-88. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers possible. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers favoring eastern areas. Highs 73-80. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

The general northwesterly flow pattern continues across the northeast with limited rain chances and near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

No big changes to start but a little more high pressure to the south may allow more warming later in the period.

53 thoughts on “Thursday June 16 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  3. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

    An observation this early warm season.

    There is plenty of heat in the central and southern part of the US.

    There’s certainly a chance NW flow can hold it back all summer.

    But, I think we are seeing the seeds being set for a very hot summer in the central and southeast US and I have to think the jet stream will orient at least once this summer to deliver us a near 100F day.

  4. TK, how confident are you in your temps for saturday? Of course, we’re having our first big family pool party in a couple of years since COVID and it appears to be landing on a not-so-favorable day. I swear I’m hated by nature. All I’ve seen by NWS is the knocking back of high temps each day. On Monday, they were at like 74 and now down to 64. I figure by Saturday they’ll be at 55 at this rate. Thanks.

    1. I’m seeing highs during Saturday afternoon in the upper 60’s. Woodshill has the mildest temps I’m seeing across all weather stations/internet.

    3. Enjoy retrac. We are celebrating a couple of birthdays and Father’s Day on Saturday also. A first with a few since Covid. Fingers crossed

    1. Ok great!!! Mid to upper 60’s they are saying seems cool to me. I like your forecast better with highs around 80 and even low 80’s

      1. I think the temps near 80 would be confined to a few locations, like interior valleys. It may be cooler than my 75-82 range in higher terrain, but if I feel that is the case for sure, I’ll do a more regional temp break-down on tomorrow’s update. Today’s forecast, while confident, is more of a blanket forecast for the entire area.

    2. I have full faith you’ve got this nailed! (kind of like your skills keeping a lid on snowfall expectations)

      Crossing fingers.

      Geez, I’ll even take low 70’s.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Both the NWS and the Mt Washington Observatory are talking up the possibility of some late season accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and northern New England on Saturday…

    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    We may be fast approaching #summer solstice but it will be cold enough to #snow above 5000 ft on Saturday! 850mb temps (~5000 ft) fall to subfreezing and it’s not out of the question portions of the White Mountains and the Adirondack High Peaks could pick up minor accumulations!

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1537269223201730561?s=20&t=h6WlZrG3xYbDMu27Dd_9DA

    1. Ryan Knapp
      @WXKnapper
      Well, not locking it in quite yet, however, it is looking more and more favorable for snow this weekend on NH’s higher terrain. If it does play out, it won’t be that unusual for this time of year but it’s still exciting all the same.

  13. I believe I heard Rob Carolan refer to Saturday’s forecast as a “hellhole” day. He said that was a word they made up in college to describe less-than-ideal weather conditions in northern New England and pleasant in southern.

  14. I think with the NW flow and instability in the atmosphere Saturday, you are going to see a lot of diurnal clouds and isolated showers pop up in the afternoon. Whatever the high temperature is, it is going to feel quite a bit cooler with the gusty NW winds and increased cloud cover.

    We are going to the Hartford Yard Goats double A baseball game Saturday evening and I will be bringing a sweatshirt for sure. Going to get pretty nippy as the sun starts to go down.

    1. Have fun at the game, Mark. I try to get to Manchester each summer to see the NH FisherCats play.

      I know you’re into softball, Mark. Our school plays Saturday afternoon at U-Mass-Amherst for the Massachusetts Division 3 softball championship. The team has never gone this far in school history!

      Go Sachems!
      Go Celtics!

      1. Wow, good luck to the Sachems Saturday! Our softball tournament is in Windsor CT this weekend so fortunately close by.

        The Yard Goats ballpark in Downtown Hartford that opened up a few years ago is a really nice place to watch a game if you are ever out this way.

        1. The players and students are so excited!!! It’s hard to keep them focused on their finals, which start next Wednesday, with softball finals and the fact we’re in the middle of June!
          🙂

          Does your daughter’s team have a nickname?

  16. The 850 mb temps on the GFS for Saturday are -1C to 4C from northern New England to southern New England and 2C to 4C on Sunday.

    That’s silly for so close to the solstice.

    1. Not at all unusual for this time of year. Doesn’t happen often, but it happens more often than you might think. 🙂

  18. The news station continues to tout a very cool weekend with I believe I saw 66 for Saturday. I’m still believing the forecast here of around 80 degrees.

  19. To: TK

    Your Sunday forecast: 1 question and 1 comment.

    Question: When would the showers clear out?
    Comment: I’m not sure of this but I believe you and Eric are about a galaxy apart in high temps for the day. OK, so maybe it’s a little less than a galaxy.

    I am asking because I have to decide between the Sox and the Open. If it’s raining in the AM, I’m not going to the Open. Not often that I have to make bucket list choices.

    1. We will probably convergence to at least the same arm of the same galaxy. 😉

      I think any showers will be gone early morning, but I’m not super confident on that yet.

    2. It may have happened here in Woburn, and the company may be based out of an office park on the Woburn / Stoneham line, but the owners are actually from Lowell. So it makes perfect sense. 😉

      That took place just under 2 miles from Woods Hill, btw.

    1. I was waiting for the wind to pick up today thinking I might have been too aggressive forecasting it. But it’s here now. 🙂

      1. It’s been here Since afternoon. We are in a wind tunnel don’t ya know. I Wasn’t home but called daughter to ask her to please take umbrella down.

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