Friday June 17 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

We have a pretty decent change in our weather to take place in our weather in the next couple of days. First, a taste of summer today as we find ourselves briefly on the northeastern corner of a very warm air mass. But before we can heat up that much, a cold front will charge across the region from northwest to southeast during the first half of the afternoon. The timing of this front, and some limiting factors in the atmosphere, means that shower and thunderstorm activity along it will not reach its full potential. However, a brief heavy storm may visit some locations, favoring the NH Seacoast to eastern CT eastward. There may be a quick isolated follow up shower or storm in a few locations, but for the most part it looks like that one flip-of-a-coin chance from midday to mid afternoon from northwest to southeast, and then the storm chance and the warm up are done deals. Much cooler and dry air moves into the region tonight behind the front. Now, my weekend optimism has taken a big hit in the last 24 hours as it appears the position of upper level low pressure will be a little closer than I was thinking. This results in more cloudiness from a cold pool aloft both Saturday and Sunday, and a more direct delivery of anomalously cool air, so I will drop the forecast temperatures accordingly. I do think our rain chances will be limited to a couple opportunities for showers, mainly late evening to overnight Saturday night to early Sunday, and maybe again at some point during the day Sunday, so most outdoor plans can go ahead, but don’t expect them to take place with sunny and warm conditions. Monday and Tuesday, upper level low pressure departs as the temporarily blocked pattern opens up to a more westerly flow, and we see moderation in temperature and generally fair weather here for early next week. Although by Tuesday we may see cloudiness from passing storm complexes to our west again, a pattern somewhat similar to our recent one.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and limited areas of sunshine early morning. Increasing sun mid through late morning. A band of cloudiness with possible showers and some heavier thunderstorms northwest to southeast across there region during the first half of the afternoon, may linger in southeastern MA and RI a little longer before the day ends with sun again. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler Cape Cod and immediate South Coast. Humid through early afternoon with dew points above 60, then drying out. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sunny early, then lots of clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late evening and overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers favoring eastern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

A general northwesterly air flow pattern at upper levels will be the rule again. Somewhere in the June 22-23 time frame we may see a warm front / cold front combo with a little bit of unsettled weather. A mid period disturbance may bring brief rainfall before we warm up to seasonable levels (low confidence this far out) for the June 25-26 weekend with mostly fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Early period cool-down via Canada, later period warm-up due to more high pressure dominating. Early call, low confidence on this outlook.

66 thoughts on “Friday June 17 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I forget, does hail/graupel get counted as a trace or however much there is, as snow ?

    Is Boston’s win over Worcester safe this weekend ?

    1. Worcester would need 0.5 inch of hail. We don’t usually get that much around here. Do we??

      That would be HORRIBLE for Boston to lose out with a couple weeks left. Frankly I don’t understand why the official end to the snow season ends at the end of June anyway.

      Hope it doesn’t get THAT cold!

    1. Ok, something a bit new to yesterday’s SPC outlook (2% tornado probability)

      I think when I checked yesterday, there wasn’t a tornado probability at all for the northeast.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Might wear a cotton turtleneck tomorrow late afternoon/evening when I’m out and about. I can’t remember doing that around the solstice.

    Across a wide swath of Europe, which includes the British Isles, it’s warm to very hot (80s and 90s in England, which is rare). And that will persist through next week in most parts.

    1. Keep it over there Joshua! Of course I know we can’t keep HHH away for an entire summer. Even in 2009 there were a few bouts of it later.

      1. Looks like some might be brewing? Will it come soon enough to support much? We shall see.

        I’m not feeling it, but I have been wrong so many times, I can’t even count. 🙂

  12. I have been enjoying this weather. But then cooler is always my choice. It has yet to compare to June 2011 and 1982…… Cold, Raw, drizzle. A bit tough for pool parties tomorrow I think but I’ve seen my grandkids in far colder.

    All I’d that said, perhaps any severe weather can stay away until I return from Ashland with my car.

  13. I know there is tremendous disappointment after last nights game. Never being a fan of basketball, I sure enjoyed the past week or so. I caught one headline today by Dan Shaughnessy and thought it was amazingly unfair. I didn’t read more because I do not care for his style. I have never liked his style. I will never like his style.

    Hmmmmmm….that might be a bit harsh 🙂

    2. He could always be a bit snarky depending, but I always liked him. I usually got an honest assessment of whatever it was he was discussing. Might not agree, but it was real from him. Did he over do it at times? Sure. But overall, I think he is excellent. 🙂

      1. I am not a fan of Boston sportswriters in general. Something I suspect is no surprise. Hard to break a seven decade habit but they give me little reason to 🙂

  17. Just home and thank you to whomever I should credit for the 90 minutes to get to Ashland, pick up my car, and get home.
    Dark clouds aplenty are just moving in

  18. Thanks TK.

    Torrential rain, wind, thunder and lightning right now here at the office in Manchester CT.

    1. I was watching it go more south of here. I wondered what you are seeing. Thank you. Please be safe

  19. We are seeing a bit of light rain as we are barely catching
    the northern edge of the cell complexes.

    2. Pretty much what we have seen but we may catch a bit more from this next line. My lightning beeper on the weather station I have is sounding regularly.

  22. My niece met Tuukka Rask a short bit ago and got to take a photo with him at the US Open. 🙂

    1. Very cool. Rask is such an interesting character. Then again, Finns are just a different breed of people. Eccentric in some ways, and I really like it.

  23. Vicki, I echo your comment on the negativity in this town regarding the sports franchises. Media folks act like spoiled brats. It’s REALLY hard to get to the finals of any championship. And it’s no shame losing and coming in second. I’m not convinced that Tatum has the make-up to be a champion. All that said, he and the rest of the Celtics had a terrific season. Folks should celebrate that, rather than spewing negativity ad nauseum. Boston is so lucky to have competitive teams in all major sports, at least most years (gosh, even the Red Sox have turned it around, for now). And, we’ve had many titles and many finalists in the past 20 years. Other cities’ sports fans would kill for that. Well, not literally, but you know what I mean.

    2. They kept referring the warriors as the Patriots. They have won 4 in 8 years. Will see if they can continue their dynasty for 20 years.

  24. Rain has come through without mulch noise . Much , mulch cooler now down here on the south shore . Cloudy with peeks of sun .

    1. Mac is a tremendous talent and I think will go far if they can give him support. I’m happy Tom
      Will return again this year

    1. And I won tickets to Sunday’s game so Sam and his buddy will be there. I told him to keep an eye on Nolan. 🙂

  27. Still waiting for that dew point to drop.

    Down to 52 at Beverly and 50 at Bedford and 54 at Worcester.
    So it’s banging at the door but the door isn’t open just yet. 🙂

  28. Did my long run – the 12 miler. Unfortunately, it was still fairly warm – at least 80F – and the dew point was relatively high. So, I’m recuperating with loads of water.

    The water deficit around Boston is getting worse, and judging from the forecast isn’t about to improve. Given the strength of the impending cold front I had expected some rain, but it looks like nothing is coming through. We literally had only a few drops earlier today. That’s it.

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