Tuesday AM Update

255 Comments

Full discussion this afternoon…

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind light N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow late. High 35-40. Wind light NE.

THURSDAY: Mix/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Chance of rain. Low 38. High 50.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 32. High 42.

255 thoughts on “Tuesday AM Update”

  1. Thanks TK.
    As I said on the previous blog I am thinking a level 1 snow event 1-4 inches with the exception of the higher elevations in the interior where I think am thinking a level 2 snow event more than 4 inches. That may need to be adjusted. I think the evening commute tomorrow could be tricky as well as the Thursday morning commute.

  2. Thanks for the update, TK 🙂 Today should be the day that ‘hopefully’ mosts models come into some kind of agreement on the upcoming snow/rain event.

  6. Tk please give us your amounts today. I am guessing your inch for Logan will be changed. Looks like four inches for Boston. Big question is Thursday.

  9. If you read the NWS morning discussion they are on the fence in terms of snow vs. mix and need a little more time.

  12. Winter storm watch out Weds. aft. thru Thurs. aft. according to TWC. They are saying 4-6 inches. Really? They are saying there could be a mix. I couldn’t get on NOAA site on my computer this morning, so far. My gut feeling says this is possible – but it will be a heavy, wet snow for sure.

  13. HPC comments from 4:14 AM

    OVERALL…THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
    THE GFS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE RANGES
    COMPARED TO THE COLDER NAM/SREF MEAN/ECMWF/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM
    SOLUTIONS. SINCE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE LIKELY
    TO HANDLE THE DETAILS OF POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING…THUS WE
    CONTINUED PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE GFS AND GAVE MORE WEIGHTING ON
    THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF/SREF MEAN…WHICH STAGGERED THE ODDS TOWARDS A
    LONGER DURATION SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR CT/RI/MA AND CATSKILLS/MID
    HUDSON VALLEY.

  14. I would love TK or JMA thoughts, much more realistic and honest then most mets out there.

    I will say Matt Noyes is bullish on plowable snow in a lot of the area and I like him a lot.

  15. This should be a heavy wet snow with the temperatures we are going to have. Be careful shoveling it since it is hard to move. I know I had a tough time back with the Pre Halloween Noreaster and I am in my 20s. If you have back or heart trouble get a neighbor to do it.

  16. Pretty good Vicki, but not perfect 🙂

    I think the biggest issue holding down snow amounts will be wind direction and BL temps.

  18. All I want is to beat 3.5″ at my house. That is the most I received this winter with one event. That maybe pushing it though.

    1. Thanks for the info about Hughes Energy. I actually have to call Next Step Living today, so I also put in a request for Hughes Energy. It is an awesome program, so anyone else on this blog looking to have their home insulated should check it out.

  19. I am going with whatever TK or JMA says, too. But I like Matt Noyes – along with Barry as they seem to be more correct with forecasts, any time of year.(yes, they are my favorite tv mets.) But, when you look at this past winter, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen.

  21. Does anyone have a sense of how much there will be in Uxbridge area and if it’ll be enough to coat the ground in wooded areas? I’m hoping it’ll be enough to see the footprints of the guy they are looking for in the woods in that area.

  26. I’m sticking (pardon the pun) with my 4 inch prediction from earlier this week for Boston. Also, Friday and Sunday look like excellent ski days up north. Saturday will not be a complete wash-out up north, though it will not be a pretty day either to go skiing, with the kitchen sink being thrown around, especially at the lower elevations. I’m also not buying the projections on accuweather and elsewhere for a dramatic warm-up next week. I think things will flip-flop (like Romney), and we’re in for a rollercoaster ride.

  27. With the way this winter has gone, something unproductive to snow is bound to happen tomorrow….whether it be…

    a) the initial punch of precip either slides north or south of most of central MA

    b) The +NAO allows everything to be displaced a bit further north, allowing for a warmer outcome

    c) we sneak in some sun tomorrow morning and the first tenth to qtr of the precip is used up as a rain/snow mix or a wet snow that doesnt accumulate until darkness ets in around 5:45pm.

  29. 12Z NAM still looks pretty juicy, but we know about the bias, plus it is a long
    duration event, so precip intensity, sun angle etc come into play. 850MB 0 C line
    get awefully close to the Boston area, so there could be a mix or brief changeover
    to rain cutting down on accumulation as well.

    GFS still sticking to a warmer solution, but ever so slowly coming around.

    Given what Hadi indicated (I haven’t looked) with the other models, it is looking
    more and more like a pretty much snow event Boston north. How much is the question. Given parameters mentioned above and discounting the NAM overcooking qpf, I would venture a guess of somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 inches for
    Boston, MORE North and West.

  31. Agree with you OS, the question will be the BL temps holding down accumilations in eastern areas and Urban centers.

  33. I may have to bring the level 2 area a little further south closer to the Pike.
    Where that mix line sets up is key in determing snowfall. If you could get a good burst of snow like what happened in CT last Friday you could get 4 5 inches in a short amount of time.

  34. From Taunton regarding the dew points
    AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST…THE 00Z GFS HAS COME IN
    WARMER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE WHILE THE 00Z NAM
    CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ITS COLD BIASES. FOR THE THICKNESS DECIDED TO
    BLEND THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS THESE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SIMILAR
    THERMAL PROFILES…WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HELPING TO SMOOTH OUT
    THE NAMS COLD BIAS. FOR QPF…KEPT WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AS THEY HAVE
    BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW SYSTEM THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH
    THIS PAST MONTH. FINALLY FOR TEMPS…SAW THAT MOS WAS QUITE TO WARM
    AND ITS DEW WHERE TO DRY. SO HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS THE COLDER
    SOLUTION OF THE NAM WITH PREV FORECAST.

  35. Upper air dynamics r not right, this I believe still is an inch or less for Boston to Providence, this has 3-6 in Worcester to a coating in Boston with a cold rain.

    2. The GFS is the outlier at this point (too warm) and not jiving with the NAM, GGEM, and ECMWF. Will be interesting to see if its 12z run comes in farther south with the heavier precip and rain/snow line.

      2. He should. Have no idea where he got an inch from. I was thinking 2-4 last night but maybe more now. There was no way this was a miss. Enjoy may or may not be last time time for snow.

        Uh

  44. At 9z Thursday, the 0 line is just north of Boston. On the 6z run, it was closer to the NH border. So it looks like it is trending ever so slightly colder.

    1. Hadi, I was just going to post the Winter Storm Watch that was put up
      by the NWS, but it was from 4AM this morning, so I didn’t.

      Is there a watch up?

      1. Ah, I found there so here goes:

        Winter Storm Watch for Suffolk County (Zone MAZ015)

        URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
        422 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

        …WINTRY MIX EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…

        CTZ002>004-MAZ007-011>016-RIZ001-281730-
        /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0002.120229T1700Z-120301T2300Z/
        HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
        EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
        SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
        NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
        INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
        VERNON…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…GLOUCESTER…SPRINGFIELD…
        MILFORD…WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…
        QUINCY…FOSTER…SMITHFIELD
        422 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

        …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
        THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

        THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
        WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
        THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

        * LOCATIONS…NORTHERN CONNECTICUT…SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
        COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND.

        * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

        * ACCUMULATIONS…3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE.

        * TIMING…SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW
        ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
        WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM
        LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR COLDER
        TEMPERATURES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST…
        RESULTING IN LESS MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MORE SNOW.

        * IMPACTS…A WINTRY MIX..PREDOMINANTLY SNOW…IS EXPECTED. POOR
        VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW…SLEET AND ICE COULD
        LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE TIMING OF THIS WINTRY MIX COULD
        IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE…AND SHOULD IMPACT THE
        THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

        * WINDS…EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

        * TEMPERATURES…IN THE MID 30S.

        * VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

        PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

        A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
        SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD…OR 8 OR MORE
        INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
        36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
        TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

        &&

        1. And here is a discussion from NWS at Upton NY:

          THERE ARE TWO KEY PLAYERS. THE
          FIRST IS A BROAD TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
          THIS IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY EAST NORTHEAST AND CUTOFF OVER THE UPPER
          MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BIT OF 700 HPA ENERGY
          OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WORKS ITS WAY EAST AND DEVELOPS A
          COASTAL LOW S OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT SHOULD BE NEAR
          THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE SECOND PLAYER IS A 1034
          HPA HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST…WHOSE CENTER
          TRACKS TO NEAR MONTREAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING…THEN SLOWLY
          RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS DAMMING HIGH
          WILL HELP SUPPLY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR…ESPECIALLY INTO NORTHERN
          INTERIOR ZONES.

    1. Yes, but there is a Watch, so somebody thinks something is going to happen.
      OF course, watches have been taken down in the past. We shall see.

  50. All 4 news affiliates here in CT (remarkably) are saying the same thing as the NWS: heavy burst of snow tomorrow afternoon for several hours followed by a changeover to sleet, frz rain, and rain in the evening. 3-6″ statewide away from the shoreline.

  51. I posted there was a Winter Storm watch earlier – around 8:30 this morning. For some reason, I couldn’t get on the NOAA site and wouldn’t have been able to copy and paste any info. But I did see the info. on The Weather Channel. Hope I’m not too invisible around here! 🙂

  52. The burst of snow I think is going to cause problems for the evening commute tomorrow.
    Shoreline in CT will go to rain but the interior will be interesting to see how long the mix stays and I think the hills north and west and north and east of Hartford may not see a change to plain rain. You get 3 4 inches of snow and add ice to that it is not a good combination.

  55. Channel 7 at noon (confusing forecast actually):

    Cape & Islands = 0
    South of Pike and inside 128 = coating to 3″
    North of Pike and outside 128 = 3-6″

    Not much different than the BZ forecast.

  56. Channel 5 forecast at noon:

    Cape & Islands = 0
    South of Pike and inside 495 = coating to 3″
    North of Pike and outside 495 = 3-6″

    All TV mets about the same. Each was harping about the Thursday rain/snow line.

    1. Very interesting that all mets in Boston are saying 3-6″ north of the Pike while all mets in CT are saying 3-6″ here. I think the initial burst of snow where we get all the accumulation has the potential to be most intense further down this way.

  57. From Joe Lundberg at Accuweather:

    Suffice it to say that the deepening storm in the Midwest will, in effect, help to pull that cold air out of New York and New England. So, as the precipitation expands tomorrow across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into upstate New York, then across northern New Jersey and into southern New England, it will end up starting as snow in many areas. That said, the models are uniformly farther north with the storm and the warm push than they were 24 hours ago, which is a typical model trend in almost any winter. Translated, it means the snow will transition to sleet and perhaps a little freezing rain, but eventually plain rain. And that transition zone will include areas back across the Midwest, like Minneapolis and Wausau, to name a couple of cities. And it will almost certainly mean eventual rain in Syracuse, Albany, Hartford, Providence and even Boston. This will definitely cut into snow totals throughout these areas, though the initial burst of snow may be impressive enough to merit 3 to 6 inch totals, especially in the higher ground from the Poconos and especially the Catskills into the Berkshires and the hills across northern Connecticut before the changeover reaches them.

  60. Yesterday Pete was really harping that there is no arctic air in place and what “cold” air there is, it is marginal at best. In SNE especially inside 495 and southward marginally cold air usually doesn’t bring much snow unless the atmosphere is picture perfect. I am still not comfortable with the current setup just yet and JL’s comments aren’t helping.

    1. Even Joe L talks about the initial burst of snow and the potential for up to 3-6″ up front. I think that’s the best we can hope for at this point. I have been resigned to the fact from the start that this will not remain all snow for the duration in most areas…I was just hoping that we draw out the period of snow for as long as possible before the changeover.

  61. One good point that Matt Noyes had last night that favors snow and rapid cooling in most areas at the onset of precip is the very low dewpoints. Just look at the dewpoints right now:

    Boston: 19 F
    Hartford:17 F

    1. But will those dewpoints be at those temps this time tomorrow? If they start at mid-upper 20’s when precip arrives then changeovers will soon take place.

  62. 12z Euro 540 line makes it to Boston but no further north. It is very robust with the initial burst of snow (3-6″) across NE PA, SE NY, much of CT and RI away from the shore. But then it seems to start to fall apart before it gets to metro Boston??

      1. The snow overspreads all of MA but by the time it reaches eastern MA, it looks like it loses a lot of its intensity. West of Boston does better.

    2. Storm looks disorganized on the Euro. Most of the best energy with the initial precip shield looks to be over western MA, CT, and RI. Then it looks disorganized with a lot of the energy passing south of NE. Looks to deliver a few inches for Boston if I am reading it correctly.

  63. Tim Kelley NECN ‏ @SurfSkiWxMan

    Leap Year Savior, 3″ of the 10″ Snow Forecast for @bhobservatory May fall B4 Midnight Weds Feb 29, Keeping us out of Top 5 Least Snowy Febs

    1. Assuming that verifies, Blue Hill Obs. is one thing since it has elevation, but what about Logan itself? Yes Logan only needs 1.3″ but there is still the ocean temps and wind direction to take in consideration.

  65. Joe Joyce ‏ @JoeJoyceWBZ
    Unlike a lot of snow chances we have seen…this one should deliver because of cold high to our north. Most models trending cold

    BAAAZZZZIIINNNGGGAAA!

  66. Tim Kelley is forecasting 10″ at Blue Hills Obs?? What? He must be heavily weighing the NAM as I am not seeing big accumulations on the GFS or Euro.

    1. Joe Joyce ‏ @JoeJoyceWBZ
      If cold holds, we will be looking at higher totals and a significant winter storm for most. Winter 2012 has me a bit gun shy #wbz

    2. Wow, Blue Hill at elevation of 635 feet!!! Now that should increase accumulation by nearly 100%. I don’t know about that?????

    1. I think the lack of comments on here today from the professional mets is a telling sign that this is not a clean cut event.

      2. No, this event is messy to say the least. Sure would be easier
        if we had a coastal bombogenisis!!! 🙂

  69. Joe Joyce just confirmed to me on twitter what OS posted on the 0C line never reaching Boston. I’ll take a little less qpf for more snow throughout the event.

    1. Yeah, it reaches about the CT-RI border. The Euro is even colder than the NAM but in holding the cold air strong over eastern MA, it looks like it shunts the heavier precip southeast. Granted, the Euro is not necessarily best at this close range. Best case scenario is a blend of the NAM QPF with the Euro’s thermal profile, but even the NAM on it’s own will do just fine!

  70. Could not have said it any better Mark!! Would love that scenario. Let’s see what the NWS does with those watches!

        1. Interesting to note that the surface system is directly under the 500MB vortex MAX. Usually the system
          would be a fair amount to the South and East of the vortex? NO? Comments?

          So what does this mean? And indication that energy will shift to the Southeast? TK? JMA?

          Many thanks

  71. I agree Coastal!

    Also Matt Noyes on twitter wrote that wet bulb will be cold enough for snow with little doubt in his tweet!!

  74. After reading TWC’s snowfall map that OS posted, I noticed that the storm bypasses a lot of cities to our midwest…why is that? I thought that is where everything is coming from rather than from the south.

    Chicago
    Detroit
    Cleveland
    Buffalo
    Pittsburgh
    Scranton (PA)

  77. I was just scheduled for a meeting at Codman Square tomorrow at 2pm. Whats it going to be like then? I am guess snowy which will give me a 2 hour plus ride home.

  78. I think the model analysis above is excellent…..but……this winter, the models have not handled one cold weather scenario correct once. Either the cold has been overdone, the location of the burst of snow has been misplaced, etc. It would be great if tomorrow’s event pans out, but until I have a few inches of snow in my yard with more falling, I just believe something is going to not happen that’s being projected.

  84. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F28%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=033&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F28%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=039&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  87. Good grief – I’ve been on phone conferences all day and was expecting to arrive here and find that – as is typical of this winter – the storm was going to miss us.

    Am I seeing that we may get a major storm?

  88. Given this is the 18z run, the QPF may not be as accurate as a 00z or 12z run. And of course this is the NAM.

    1. Almost too far south and east. Keeps the cold air in, until the primary
      system starts to catch up and surface temps warm some. Could be boundary
      layer issue at that point. Intensity goes down then as well.

  98. Looking on the wunderground ptype for the 18z NAM, it has the rain/snow line collapsing at hour 42.(It never reached us)

    1. I don’t know……I’m worried that a sizable snowfall is predicated on cold air holding in place over just the northeastern US while moisture streams in from the west of us. I just can’t remember a lot of events like this in my lifetime that have been big snow producers.

  102. Man, tremendous burst of snow over CT for the first 6 hours of the storm. 0.5 to 0.75 QPF in the first 6 hours before a changeover. The real heavy stuff never quite makes it to MA, but still, an extended period of moderate to heavy snow for most of MA into Thurs AM with no changeover? Looks like widespread 8-12″ in MA with that run. Note the sharp cutoff in precip north of Portmouth, NH and east of Boston over the ocean. This is what the Euro was trying to do – the position of the high shunted the forward motion of precip, only it did it much farther south and west, limiting the snow totals. The placement of that high could be the saving grace or the kiss of death!

  104. one thing that seems strange to me is that the weather service says 608 for my arear then says 1-3 on the seven day for wednesday night. Is it that they think we will get 5 inches of snow on thursday.

  107. i think it will likly change i am being really conservative I see alot more on the models but i am putting them lower since the ground is warm and we do not exactly know how far the snow and rain line will make it.
    0-3 inches southeast mass , cape and islands.
    3-6 inches south of the pike up through the merrimack valley Boston included.in northeast mass.
    6-10 inches north of the pike( northern worchester county and northwest mass.)
    I have a feeling winter storm warnings and advisories will be posted later on tonight or tomorrow morning.

    1. i might be saying this this evening but i think my first post is more likly as of right now
      0-2 southshore,cape and islands
      2-4 southeast mass
      4-8 south of the pike and coastal areas of northeast mass boston is included
      6 – 12 interior northern mass including interior northeast mass.
      i need more support of models to say this is what i think is going to happen.
      This would put more areas under a warning rather than an advisory.

    1. I just checked the site. They still have the 12Z totals posted, of course unless I went to the wrong site.

    1. That means everywhere in the watch box is getting a warning 🙂 🙂
      Pete B’s nothing for Boston yesterday isn’t looking too good as of now.

  111. NWS at Gray Me, Mentioned that a NORLUN Trough may set up! 🙂
    Presumably this is between the coastal inverted back to the remaining primary
    system. They indicated that forecasting snow with this is very tricky.

  112. …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
    THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

    * LOCATIONS…WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND
    SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…6 TO 10 INCHES AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT COATING OF
    ICE.

    * TIMING…SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD
    BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY THE EVENING COMMUTE AND CONTINUE INTO
    THURSDAY MORNING.

    * IMPACTS…A FAIRLY DRY SNOW IS EXPECTED. POOR VISIBILITY AND
    SLIPPERY TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. BOTH THE WEDNESDAY
    EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES SHOULD BE AFFECTED.

      1. Hey Philip… When you go from a watch to an advisory that is a downgrade and when you go from a watch to a
        warning that is an upgrade.
        An advisory means not expecting 6 plus inches of snow which is needed to for warning criteria.

  114. Now, the big question is:

    Are TK and JMA on board OR do they still have major concerns?

    I wonder what the 18Z GFS will look like?

    Better still, the 0Z runs.

      1. No,

        They could say that the GFS is the only model to really have a handle on this and the warmer air will penetrate farther North,
        keeping snow accumulations minor.

        OR

        They could say that the Euro has the better idea and that all
        of the action will be shunted farther South and East, keeping accumulations minor.

        Perhaps by now, they are on board. Either way, would love to hear from them. 🙂

  116. Pete B. is still going with absolutely nothing for Boston, either he’s going to blow his forecast completely or this pattern is just relentless.

    1. Pete B. has some serious issues. He must REALLY BELIEVE
      in the GFS. I wonder IF he has access to results much earlier and the
      18Z run still is warmer???????

  123. I believe there r boundary layer issues esp in Boston down to Providence, I think this is one that we will be hearing school closing in the berkshires and Worcester cty but the majority of us will be saying where’s the snow? Hope everyone’s having a great day 🙂

    1. That’s why the NWS says it’s going to be a DRY SNOW. 🙂
      Seriously, the wind with be ENE and not E. And it will be backing to NE.

      I don’t think that will be our problem.

  125. If Harvey at 5:00 pm has similar amounts to Pete, then I would say that this storm WILL be a bust and TK was 100% correct as he always has been since this blog began.

    Remember…TK has never liked this storm for snow since day “1”!

  126. The very latest NWS forecast for Boston calls for snow tomorrow pm and continuing at night with a total of 2-4″. Thursday am mixed rain/snow to rain then a bit of snow at the tail end.

    My bet is Boston will end up lower with more like 1-2″. I just hope we can fall behind the 1936-37 record but any chance of mostly snow is now…down the drain. 🙁

    In other words…nothing much more to see here guys! 🙁

    1. Not what I see. Here it is:

      SNOWFALL FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT IS 6-8″ NORTH OF I-90 AND
      WEST OF I-495…3-6″ ALONG THE MASS PIKE TO THE 128 BELT…AND
      2-4″ N CT/RI AND INTERIOR SE MA. ALONG THE S COAST…UP TO 2″ IS
      POSSIBLE FROM THE INITIAL FRONT END WARM AIR ADVECTION

  127. NAM 2m temps for Boston are barely at freezing and only dip below for a brief period tonight after 00z. Cooling doesn’t occur for Boston until it precipitates. It will snow in Boston and coastal plain and it might look pretty intense at times but it will be the type of snow that almost looks like it sublimates right off the ground. The urban centers and coastal plain have a lot of heat stored up that is radiating. I just don’t see 4-6 inside of 95. Outside of 495 should do well. (6+ worcester county and north with some elevated areas maybe doing better) Basically, I think it’ll stick and add up where it did for the October storm. Not nearly the accumulation but enough to look impressive given the light accumulations this winter.

    I’m looking forward to seeing what the temp profiles look like from 18z runs.

      1. And – shhhhhhh don’t tell anyone – I so hope he’s wrong :). Just this time. My gut is telling me I’ll be sitting by the window watching the snow fly this time tomorrow

  130. 18Z GFS is STILL has a warmer solution. Brings the rain all the way to the
    MA/NH border, unlike the NAM. Here we go again. We’lll see what the 0Z run has to say.

    1. TK is probably reading our posts in amusement…as I said earlier, he probably was correct all along on this storm as no big deal. 🙂

  136. It’s funny you say that Hadi, nobody does care but I have many family members call before a storm to ask me what’s up. For some reason they think I can predict but they call nonetheless. I give forecasts off our discussions and how I see it. I’ve got one family member who called me once to ask whether or not to cancel an outdoor fundraiser 24 hours in advance. I gulped, told him I would, he did, and swears to this day it proved valuable. Now he calls me before he goes on vacation. It’s rather amusing.

    Ok, looked at 2m temp profiles for Boston (18z NAM) and the temp gets to about 37-38 tomorrow then crashes to about 32-33 when it starts precipitating and stays at that temp for the whole event. Plots out a hair above 1.5″ qpf.

    GFS profiles aren’t out yet. (at least on the site at look at)

    1. Too funny retrac I have the same issue at work! Always looking for a forecast and they go by me more then the mets 🙂 comical but based in what I read hear and my own thoughts I end being pretty accurate!

      1. As do I here….I have gotten asked what the deal is with the storm by 7 or 8 people so far today. The forecast here in CT is actually pretty clear cut…a solid 2-5″ then a changeover tomorrow evening…no matter what model you look at. Much more difficult forecast in eastern MA.

  137. From what Harvey and Todd said, it could take until Thursday evening just to get a lousy inch in Boston. I am beginning not to like those computer model projections for accumulation. I am not totally sure any more if they really tell the whole story. The mets now seem to use them in place of a traditional snowfall map.

  138. Pardon the delay. I was busy collecting IP addresses of trolls. 😉

    Anyway.

    I’m between Pete’s and Todd’s camps at the moment.

    Logan is not going to do well in this upcoming storm. I think just about all the accumulation takes place between 8PM and 6AM, and I have a concern about maintaining intensity enough to get significant amounts.

    So based on that, my low end amounts are up to 1 inch coast including Logan, and my high end amounts are 6-8 inches in the hills of Worcester County on the Monadnocks, assuming it snows hard enough, long enough. Mix and rain will become involved at some point Wed night and Thursday.

    1. How many trolls did you get today?

      So with your prediction above, the afternoon commute should not be bad from Boston on south?

      1. Only a few so far… 🙂

        I believe the PM commute will be one to exercise caution in, especially as you go later into it, but I believe roads from immediate Boston area south will remain wet.

    3. I have a doc appt at newton wellesley late tomorrow afternoon. I won’t drive in snow – too old :). I’d be on roads back around 4:00. I’m thinking by discussion here that works fine???

  139. There r some models showing close to 60 degrees around March 10th and it could last 2 or 3 days, it’s still early yet

  141. Thanks Tk. As always I respect your call. But I think your perfect fotcasting this winter may end on this storm. I believe we see higher than an inch for Logan and Boston. I disagree with you on the highest amount of respect too you. We shall see how It unfolds. Thanks

    2. Well you are being very generous in saying “your perfect forecasting” regarding my performance because it hasn’t been, but thanks anyway.

      Love the opinions, agreeing or not.

      And if it is a bad forecast, I have been saying all winter I will ride the train of persistence on these marginal events until it derails on me once, rather than calling them too high each time as many media outlets have done up to now.

  146. Any chance we could run a little snow prediction contest for this event?

    How much snow at:
    Boston/Logan
    Blue Hills Observatory
    Worcester
    Providence

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