Wednesday June 22 2022 Forecast (7:44AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

While some eastern coastal areas saw the sun rise and have sun still, much of the region is blanketed by clouds as we start the day. These clouds are triggered by a warm front that’s trying to push across the region, but can’t do it, and in fact will be moving back the other way as the entire pattern retrogrades or moves westward during the next day and a half. This will help clear us out more today and then will bring back our old friend, the weekend low pressure area, but in weaker form, for Thursday. This brings us some chance of showers Thursday, but this event, in terms of rain, looks unimpressive. Things start to move “the right way” as a zonal flow returns Friday through the weekend, finally allowing some much warmer weather to arrive in time for the first weekend of summer.

TODAY: Lots of clouds to start (most sun eastern coast), including some periodic showers through midday in southwestern NH and parts of central MA to eastern CT, then more sun and less clouds from east to west as the day goes on. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 coast. Dew point 60+ Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 83-90 except cooler coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Look for a frontal system to bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms early in the period, then high pressure to dominate with dry weather for the balance of the period, cooler at first, then warming.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Signs of a dry and seasonably warm to very warm stretch of weather for early July with high pressure in control much of the time. Will probably deal with one frontal passage during this period of time with limited shower / t-storm threat.

33 thoughts on “Wednesday June 22 2022 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  4. TK, could you please provide your call for Pembroke on Sunday? High temp and Dew Point.

    I think the location is far enough inland that it will not
    be affected by any sea breeze or perhaps only minimally.
    Location is 7 miles inland from the coast.

    Many thanks

    As of now, it looks like we will not be attending the graduation party event which is outside with a tent and the works.

  7. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2022062212&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Not TK 🙂 but this flow above is why I still believe it won’t be high humidity this weekend.

    While the heights are high, its mostly WSW flow and not due SW flow which would be much, much more humid. In the dp map below, it takes the cold front to focus and pool the humidity right along its leading edge.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd&rh=2022062212&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

  10. Thanks TK.

    Getting a nice soaking rain here in Northern CT today. Cool, damp day but would rather it be today so the Travelers golf tournament is not impacted. Tomorrow, fortunately, is looking drier than it was a few days ago.

    1. 0.15 here. Not a whole lot of good. Buy some is better than none. Sutton’s fourth celebration is Sunday. Last year we had severe thunder but it cleared in time for the parade. Would love to avoid that this year. TK has helped me with the fireworks… company, questions, and weather. It has been invaluable.

    2. Bright and sunny here and 76. Beautiful!!!
      Sorry about your rain, but then you may be happy about it.

  13. I was going to say Tom, this is a weird setup today. Not too often you end up with what has essentially been a washout here today in Hartford when it is sunny and in the mid 70s in Boston. And no eastward movement on that rain, it is heading due north to south.

    1. Looks to be streaming …literally….north to south from NH into CT just went of me. Some darker clouds moving into the more sunny sky above now

  15. Keep an eye on the wave just moving off of Africa. The ECMWF has been intermittently trying to develop it as it crosses the Atlantic, and the Canadian really blows it up (which means absolutely nothing). However, several members of the GFS and Canadian Ensemble develop it, and the majority of the members of the ECMWF Ensemble also develop it. Most have it as a “Caribbean Cruiser” and the eventually into the Gulf, but a few bring it into the Bahamas as well.

    I put the odds of it actually developing into something at about 20% right now, but I’ll be watching it, especially since I forecast for radio stations in the USVI and Jamaica.

    1. Well, it is getting to be that time of year! Time to watch the waves off that continent.

      1. It’s still a little early in the season for easterly waves. Usually we don’t have to pay attention to them until the 2nd or 3rd week in July. But not unprecedented.

  16. CPC & I agree that heat, at least in a sustained fashion, is going to be hard to find on the East Coast into at least early July.

    I had an inkling heading toward this summer that we were not in for a hot one, and it’s certainly starting out that way.

    Keep in mind, when I use the phrase “not in for a hot one” that is not the same as saying “we won’t have any hot weather”. We will have hot days. But I’d be utterly flabbergasted if we reached or exceeded the # of 90+ days we had in the region last summer.

  17. TK I believe you pointed out yesterday Boston had 8 days of 90 degrees or higher including a five day heat wave and this year so far not a single 90 or higher temperature for Boston.

  18. Here in CT at BDL where the weather records are kept for inland CT we have only had 3 90 degree or higher days and those happened in May. We may add one to the total this weekend.

  19. Beautiful outside today. Went biking late this afternoon to Cambridge (near Harvard Square), which for me is a quick 3 mile trip across the river and down Mass. Ave. It was breezy and fairly cool. Glad I had a light jacket with me. In fact, it felt much more like late September/early October than late June. I can’t recall a June with so many days with such low dew points. I love it. But, I also acknowledge that it’s a bit weird. I’m so accustomed to humidity in mid to late June that I find odd when it’s not there.

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