Disorganized “Storm” Not Big Snow Producer For Boston

558 Comments

6:25PM

Ok, so the headline mentions Boston, but what about elsewhere? Patience is all I ask… 🙂

Here is the setup: High pressure to the north, with a cold air supply. Low pressure to the south, moving eastward in ripples or waves. These, along with some overrunning of warmer air over the top of the colder air, will produce periods of precipitation from mid or late afternoon Wednesday through much of Thursday. I say precipitation, because it won’t all be in the form of snow. Much of it will be, in parts of the region, and in some areas it may stay all snow (northern Worcester  County hills, southwestern NH). Elsewhere, enough warm air should work in aloft to bring some mixing. This will also become an issue when the precipitation intensity is lighter. In addition, a wind turning out of the east will bring modified air in off the ocean, which is running 3 to 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. So this drawn-out event will never really be that intense. The greatest chance for snow to accumulate in the Boston area will be roughly during the window of 8PM Wednesday to about dawn on Thursday, but this will depend on intensity of snowfall and the position of the line of mix/rain.

Once this mess exits Thursday night, clouds will probably hang tough on Friday, with the next storm due to arrive on Saturday. The track of this one, well north and west of southern England, spells mild temperatures and rain.

Expected snow accumulation from the entire event: Coating to around 1 inch immediate shore, 1-3 inches away from the coast to around Route 495, 3-6 inches outside Route 495, with greater than 6 inches in the hills of Worcester County and southern NH.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow possible in southern NH and extreme northern MA early afternoon but most snow holding off and advancing west to east across the region mid to late afternoon. High from near freezing in the hills well NW of Boston to near 40 along the coast. Wind NE to E increasing to around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except a changeover line of sleet/rain working northward toward the Mass Pike, may push north of the Pike later at night and may approach the NH border, especially in northeastern MA. Precipitation intensity will vary from light to moderate. Temperatures holding around 30 in the hills well NW of Boston to near 40 along the shore. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow/mix well northwest of Boston, rain/mix elsewhere, trending to turn back to lighter snow or snow showers from NW to SE later in the day. High ranging from around 33 Worcester Hills to the lower 40s along the coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, shifting to N late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Watch for some freezing of untreated surfaces. Low 27-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. High 40-45. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Rain. Low 35. High 50.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 43.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 31. High 44.

558 thoughts on “Disorganized “Storm” Not Big Snow Producer For Boston”

  3. I see your rain line extends possibly up to NH so I am guessing the GFS had this right in your thinking. I think it being overnight might help our cause a little here in Boston.

  4. Should i get the plows out in Walpole, Ma? When you say 1-3 inches is that grassy surfaces? It seems with the warm temps lately the pavement should be pretty warm. I just don’t want to set everything up for nothing – again! Thanks!

  5. I believe we’re in for a grassy surfaces/car tops snow event Boston coating to inch, Providence coating but mainly rain, Worcester 3-5 inches, 🙂

    1. I am sticking to my call, I am stubborn. Harvey said boston is real close to thAT 2-5 Line. Charlie you do crack me up. But if your call holds I give you a ton of credit. You are very good on your forcasting and I think you have nailed all of them. If you get this one right congratulations.I hope this is It for snow.i

  6. Thanks TK. Looks like a level snow event for most with the exception of the higher elevations of SNE who might get up to a level 2 snowfall. I am surprised some of the winter storm watches have not been changed to an advisory.

  7. Pete on his evening blog says “bye-bye” to winter…no more than a coating, if that.

    1. 7.8″ = 2011-12 (final total?) 🙁
    2. 9.0″ = 1936-37
    3. 10.3″ =1972-73
    4. 12.7″ = 1979-80
    5. 14.9″ = 1994-95

    The CPC 8-14 day temp outlook through mid-March = UGH !!!!!

    All I can say is that this upcoming spring had better be nice & warm.

    2. I hope next winter we get some good coastal storms and come closer to normal in the snowfall department.

  9. I have not got to read the blog today. I am sure there is much love for the NAM solution. I am comfortable with what TK wrote. I stand by yesterday’s thoughts, that it will snow, but this is not a significant storm for where most people live, Coastal, Urban, and Valley locations. Also watch out for the front end of this thing being blown to virga..
    Try to get full forecast out later if time allows.

  10. Im not writing off the Nam completely. If its half right then i will be happy. It use to be servicable and i understand that the gfs has been better of late, but something has got to break.

    I have my camera charging because this could be the last snow of the season. My daughter who is 22 months loves the snow, the little she has seen, and you have to hear her say the word “Snoooow”. Its the cutest thing ever. It wont be the same next winter whent she will be almost 3yo so i am going to make sure i get it on tape.

            1. Living the dream. One inch or 10 tomorrow is an overnight storm. It needs to be. Safety is number one on this job rain, snow or sun.

  11. Coastal I was thinking that as well that this could be one of the last times we see snow.
    I hope tracking thunderstorms this summer will be more interesting than this winter which has been disappointing to say the least.

  12. 0-2 inches southeast mass current winter weather advisory small period of mix precipitation
    2-5 inches of snow eastern essex, eastern hampden, suffolk southeast middlesex, and norfolk counties i think a winter weather advisory for this area period of snow then mix to rain
    5-10 inches for interior northeast , central and western mass snow some sleet and rain. possible expecially in northeast mass.
    who ever stays all snow will get at least 4 to 5 inches out of this thing.

  13. I still can’t write off the nam but clearly people smarter then I are saying this is not ment to be.

    Coastal I so agree my little guy is 27 months and goes nuts when he sees the snow.

    Now for Charlie you have said every storm is rain or a miss so I give you that but I think it’s easy to call it that way:) and bust the other way. No offense intended!

    1. He has done better than us. He gives detailed forcasts in my view of things. He has nailed all of them and has said rain versus snow and if snow how much. He has nailed them all.

    1. Overall, I think they do a very good job…….however, they have been struggling with snow events this winter. As I recall on the CT 4 inch snow event a week ago, they did not have that and had places such as the Merrimack Valley getting 3 to 4 in, which never happened. Also, I think they struggled with the storm a few weeks back that clobbered the immediate south coast and Cape and pretty much left everywhere else with little.

      1. I just peaked back at their snowfall prediction map…..I mean, look at how big of a geographical area they expect 4 or more inches of accumulation to occur in and then take into account how JMA and TK both explain this event in terms of small ripples or waves moving eastward. That snowfall expectation seems more reasonable for a moisture loaded deepening system moving up the eastern seaboards….but not for this setup.

        2. Hey Coastal…. I am not going to college for meteorology. I love weather and especially here in New England where we got everything weather offers from heat waves, droughts, tornadoes, snowstorms you name it.

        1. I can say, looking at the initials of who wrote this afternoon’s NWS discussions, that, in my opinion, they are both good forecasters. One of them I know a bit and the other is also an author on at least one weather book that I own, which is well written and has some excellent meteorology in it.

  15. Thunderstorms are fun to track. The one thing to know if you have a hot humid airmass and a cold front coming through with plenty of sunshine ahead of it that is a recipe for big thunderstorms.

  16. I agree Tom. Looking at the writers of the AFD I know 1 and yes very good. I guess we shall see how it plays out.

  21. Someone please tell me how Pete B can call for zero in Boston and Matt N calling for 4 inches? Just does not make sense.

    1. I hear ya Hadi. But there is another one who has nailed most of them, good old Pete. He has been good. We question him, but again he has been right. He may or may not be right on this one. I do not think Boston gets zero.

      1. I’d add a bit, but very little, to his map.

        The ocean temperature and lack of sustained intensity is very likely to play a role in this.

        We should see the NAM’s 00z run respond with a slightly warmer solution.

    2. He emails me a fair amount and typically doesn’t budge. Did it with earl and Irene and oct storm too. And was right even though he knew everyone thought he was wrong. Gotta admire that. As I said earlier I don’t mind if he’s wrong this time.

        1. My sense is no. He felt Todd had little respect for anyone at the station. I’d have to ask him. I can say that Todd was really nasty to all of us who worked hard with him on his spotter network after he was let go

          1. Wow…very surprised at that. I used to e-mail him some evenings asking general wx questions and he always responded quickly and seemed nice. Of course I never met him in person.

            That’s too bad. I always held him right up there with Barry and Harvey. 🙁

  25. Nobody had the 29th storm correct until about 24 hr. the high res models way out performed the global models in that storm. But I do agree he has been very good and I do like Pete a lot.

    1. I remember no one got that right. There was one last year everyone got totally wrong too. All mets apologized after. I was impressed It’s gotta happen

          1. But you have to be young and beautiful in a way that isn’t required for off screen jobs. Televison is a pretty cut throat industry.

        2. See I can’t even shut up when I say I will. I think it bugs me when mets diss other mets because they know how tough it is esp in new England. For some reason Pete gets a lot of it. I’d react same for any met I think. Ive never been good at keeping my opinion to myself :). Everyone has favorites of course. You are all my favorites And now I’ll really go to sleep.

    3. Last ill say. Pete is real deal. Hes one of the good ones who just happens to also love weather too. Now I’ll shut up and go to sleep. 🙂

  26. TK, do you believe that what little snow we get tomorrow and Thursday will truly be the very last until November or December?

      1. But It does get harder right the deeper into the month we get, is that right. And also when was the last March with snow to measure.

        1. Geesh John I think of march as a snow month but you are right. When was last one. Or last April for that matter Did we have march last year.

  29. tonight becoming cloudy lows in the low 20s
    wednesday morning clouds afternoon snow 1-2 inches
    wednesday night snow and sleet 2-4
    thursday morning snow afternoon mix 1-3inches
    total snow accumulation for 495 belt area a general 4-8 inches higher right around and north of 495
    models are starting to agree on lower amounts 🙁

  32. I agree shreedhar 540 line crashes and moderate snow looks like it’s happening in eastern areas. QPF are jacked up.

  34. i am going to see if i can make some snow with my snow makers to get my sleeding hill with a small base like give it a head start i need it to go 2 degrees cooler. I do not fire it up unless its at 28 or below.

  44. Kevin Lemanowicz on Ch. 25 on his 6:00 pm newscast said 3″ for Boston…wanna bet that is cut in half at 10:00 &11:00 pm? 🙂

  45. The NAM holds its ground. I am thinking right now level 2 snow event more than 4 inches north of the Pike. South of the Pike level 1 snow event 4 inches or less.

  48. I just heard on WODS 103.3 fm that Boston will get 4-6″. The station must be using the NWS forecast but I always thought they used WBZ-TV weather info. Aren’t they related via CBS ownership?

  51. This thing is either going to boom or bust… I say there will be a sharp cutoff and where it stays snow, the amounts will be the real deal. Marginal accumulation Boston and points south, with a lot of rain in the mix.

  54. Keep in mind with the warm ground, and varying in intensity precip, whatever sticks will be melting throughout the storm, which will prevent the snow from really adding up.

    1. I am just dumbfounded….the NAM is actually more robust than prior runs and puts out 1.5-1.75 QPF over eastern Mass as mostly/all snow. Even at an 8:1 ratio, that’s still over a foot.

  56. I’d be excited about that NAM run if:

    1) The NAM was good at precip amounts on this kind of setup.
    2) The NAM was performing well this winter.
    3) If it were January.
    4) If the SST’s were normal or below.

  58. You were right Hadi. Kevin upped his totals to 3-6″ for Boston with 6-10″ not too far to the west. Why is he putting so much faith in the NAM?

    1. It’s hard to totally ignore one of your models (that is supposed to be one of the best in the short range) when it is spitting out a foot of snow 18 hours in advance of the storm.

  59. Temps are too marginal (if that) for accumulating snow of significance. But I’ll stick to my guns – 4 inches of glop in Boston when all is said and done.

  60. 1936-1937 was followed by a normal winter in 1937-1938, hopefully we revert to norm in 2012-2013 (sans the hurricane that clobbered New England after that winter)

  61. I wish I had kept track of the NAM’s total QPF for the 00z or 12z run before the start of each event this winter for Boston and a few other selected locations, alongside the actual precip amounts for each event.

  62. If they ignore the NAM and we get a foot they look really foolish but if you predict higher you can always back down from it. They are on tv thus have to buy into it a certain amount unless they are so confident.

    TK clearly not having any part of the nam.

  65. It may seem that we are really close to this event, but a lot of that QPF comes thursday, which is 30-42 hours out. So not as close as we may seem.

  68. Tweets from Matt Noyes:

    Fellow meteorologists, if this was any other season the 1.55″ of QPF at KLWM with no sfc temp above 33 would be quite concerning

    OK, OK, it’s still quite concerning. Like the last storm, I think what saves us from a direct 10:1 correlation is lack of ice nuclei seeding

    Non-meteorologists: Essentially, new guidance is cranking out what would be 15″ snow at Lawrence MA most times, but it’s warm aloft

    The air above someplace like Lawrence is going to be barely subfreezing, limiting the available “seeds” for snowflake development

    If it turns out colder aloft in places like the Merrimack Valley – oops. I do think the max amount will be about 12″ but will be localized

  70. Whoa – 0z GFS looking much more juicy and a bit colder. Second storm redevelops off of NJ and throws a another batch of heavier precip across SNE early Thursday AM.

      1. According to my untrained eye, it seems like Gfs has the rain snow line is just south of the mass pike in the morning hours but by noon it seems to collapse south. I may be wrong though…

    1. 1.0-1.25 QPF in eastern MA with over 1.25″ in central MA. And definitely colder. If that second burst of heavier precip occurs as shown with that thermal profile and the precip happening overnight tomorrow, it will accumulate.

  74. Sure makes it an interesting forecast. Matt Noyes just said he saw the latest guidance and is not changing his forecast. But his snow map already had all of the Boston Metro area getting 4-6″. I think that is a good forecast…the timing of these bursts of precip are going to happen either in darkness or early/late in the day when the sun angle is low. The snow should accumulate during those times.

  75. Harvey now says 2-6″ for Boston and is leaning more towards a snow/mix.

    He also said that these type of storms tend to bring “surprises”…we will see. 🙂

  76. Judging by the infrared satellite and the brightness on the eastern horizon, looks like filtered sun (at least) for a while this morning.

    Quite the warm surge this morning into the Mississippi/Ohio Valley regions with overnight temps in the 60s to near 70F and a sustained line of strong storms.

  77. Morning

    Well it looks pretty clear cut for Worcester county and north of the pike as mostly snow and snow/rain mix for SE mass. The fun part is here in Boston. Clearly euro and nam profiles are colder than GFS. We are right on the edge and no question to me we see snow just how much is the question. I would say away from immediate coast line 4-6 looks like a good bet but it can go either way. NWS did point out that the GFS does not handle cad situations very well.

    1. Today is the day. On my to work, It is chilly in southy right now. Boston will see at least 3inches but probably more come nightfall. If Harvey is upping forcast and said this storm could have a Surprise, well l. ook out. He said last night boston was so close to that 2-5
      T

    1. Just the way the winter has gone + warmer than normal ocean temps + lots of dry air to overcome for this initial batch of precip moving in later today = less snow than the models are predicting.

      A general 2-4 inches away from the coastline and a coating up to 1 inch within 5 miles of the coastline.

  81. Tk any changes on your end. It sure looks like Logan will easily get that 1inch that you thought would be tops.

  83. Hadi I think we get a good hit here. If it snows during the morning like Dylan said, I doubt It would dstick with a warm ground.

  84. 2m temps for boston even on 6z nam are 33-34 all the way through to 12z tomorrow. I think you guys in the are going to get screwed. It’ll stick here and there but nothing to write home about unless I’m dead wrong (or it comes down harder than progged)

  86. North of the Pike Level 2 snow event more than 4 inches. In and around Boston I don’t think gets above 4 inches so I am going with a level 1 snow event as we as areas south of the pike. This is an ever changing situation. Big storm system here impacting the country with snow, mixed precipitation, and even severe weather with tornadoes.

  87. Interesting to see how this energy translates in New England as this moves East. Looks like it may get sloppy in and around Boston, maybe more precip, but slushy.

    NWS updated snow map, upped some of the totals from the pike north (especially southern NH), however around the Pike heading south, some areas that were in the 4″-6″ envelope are now 2″-4″: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

  88. TV mets for Boston area.

    Channel 4 = 3-6″
    Channel 5 = 2-6″
    Channel 7 = 2-5″

    The usual: less near the coast and south of Boston and more to the north and towards 495.

    Northern MA and into NH, most have 6-9″ or 5-10″.

    1. NWS has 1-3″ for Boston, around an inch for Hull.

      Forecasted winds and warm water will definitely have an impact on totals in/around the coast..

      Tonight – East
      Thursday – East
      Thursday Night – Northeast
      Friday – North

  89. Retrac I saw the 2 m temps so I do think that will be an issue, the intensity is going to be hard to pinpoint.

    1. right Hadi.

      unless a band sets up right over your head in Boston and sits there, it’s going to be a frustrating storm if you’re a snow lover.

      I put my snow board out this morning–sticking with 6-8 where I am and steadily less as you head south of me by say only even 5-10 miles (Auburn)

    1. Hope so Hadi–I’m still concerned about some sleet and rain mixing in if things lighten up just a bit. There’s still some bust potential even here in the hills. I’m staying with my call, but I am a realist too.

  93. PA is lit up pretty good on Radar, but at 7:00am Allentown was reporting OVC Skies 36 Dewpoint of 23 but radar returns showed up to 20-30dbz for the last 2 hours. Pittsburgh is lit up like a Christmas tree at 40dbz, but is reporting light rain. Remember the thought I had about blowing some of that early burst to the dry air overhead?

    1. funny you say that JMA. I got zapped when I touched the lock on my truck this morning and wondered how much of this will get eaten up by dry air on the front end.

  94. It clearly its a matter of upper level temps vs. surface temps. Cold enough in the upper level but too warm on the surface for Boston.

  95. TK what do you think of the high res models ie HRRR etc.. for a strom like this. HRRR only goes out a little time frame.

  100. As much as I would love a decent storm here in Boston, its just not in the works. East winds at 15-20 MPH just is not gonna hack it for BL temps!! Let’s hope for some surprises here in the City!!

  102. Hadi – I agree with you re: NWS homepage. Seems in last few wks. or so they have added more categories (more colors) – maybe there is just so much going on! 🙂

  107. Hours 21 and 24 on the 12z NAM look impressive on the sim radar, might be our best time for accumulating snow.(assuming it remains cold enough)

  108. I still think rain plays a much bigger factor than we think esp from Boston to Providence, unless it coming down hard it will come down as sleet pellets and rain drops

  109. Unfortunately not looking good inside 128 with that east fetch off the relatively warm water. There will be boundary layer issues and the marine layer should win over even up to and slightly north of the pike. This early morning sunshine and increased march sun angle doesn’t help. I was never really impressed with this storm since last week as far as accumulating snow for Boston. Although one model and a couple of Boston forecasters predict a few to several inches in Boston, I just don’t see it. Outside of 128 will be a different story with some places in the higher elevations approaching double digit totals. This will be an elevation storm and I’m not giving much credibility to the models at this point:( I really hope I am wrong!

  110. Charlie no question rain south of Boston will be a factor. I think the question is more around the immediate Boston area.

  111. Clearly the models are not accounting for the east wind within the 128 belt. I think inside 128 it would take a miracle to get to 3-6 inches!!

  114. Terry Eliasen ‏ @TerryWBZ
    Still ingesting and waiting for morning model runs but right now looks like a solid 3-6″ in Boston, 6-9″ NW of 495 #wbz

  115. It’s simple some are going with a NAM/EURO blend and others just not going with it. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong.

    1. Think you’ll see things pick up once this event (or) non-event gets underway 🙂
      Did I hear correctly that whatever does fall should begin around 2-4pm?

  118. that blob in PA. is almost perfectly round. I’m rooting for it to look like a bowling ball. Pretty cool.

  119. Danielle Niles ‏ @DanielleNECN
    Snow starts light but ramps up fast. Case in point? Elmira, NY: light snow, 2 mile vis at 8:53 AM. Heavy snow, 1/4 mile vis at 9:13 AM

  124. Todd Gutner ‏ @ToddWBZ

    New data suggests bigger snow for area, watch wbz-tv at noon for new snow map. This will easily be biggest storm of season 4 Boston.

    2. agreed the sooner we get moisture wanting to come in the better to soak the atmosphere and let the snow to fall late afternoon through thursday.

      1. light snow is starting with some stronger bands in it .the ligher blues i think are not hiting the ground. I think the darker color blue areas are as snow showers. eventually it will get steadier
        where ever the edge of light precipitation look at the closest heiviest band and that is what is probably falling and after it is falling

  127. should we ignore the nam. I am thinking we should not take it out of the equation. It has been saying the same thing for 4 days now while the others have been all over the place.
    right now i will be conservative with amounts
    0-2 cape and islands / south coast
    2-4 southeast mass and east coast
    4-8 for the valleys
    8+ for the hills and berkshires up into vt and nh.

  132. I was hearing starting here SLOWLY between 2 and 4 – am trying to decide whether to head to Newton-Wellesley for my 2:15 appointment – this doc runs late so could mean I’m out of there around 4:00 with rush hour traffic. The radar looks to have snow here earlier than 2:00 – anyone have any thoughts? I’d sure appreciate it – and thank you!

    1. I noticed BZ had upped amounts and got very excited –

      Even better I was just outside and IT FEELS LIKE SNOW!!!!!! What a GREAT feeling. Sorry, don’t mean to yell but I’m excited!

    2. Vicki a lot of the snow that across the western parts of SNE looks to be drying up before it hits the ground.
      The snow that is heavier across the Hudson Valley is making it to the ground. Temps in the mid 30s across western parts of
      SNE and I believe as the snow comes down hard will see those temps drop.

  133. I will say the NAM has been so consistent for the last 3 days with this set-up. I can’t just ignore it but can cut it in half which still gives us 4+ inches in the Boston area.

  135. The NAM has nearly 2 inches of QPF in eastern part of the state.

    Love to hear what JMA or TK thoughts are. So much more level headed then me 🙂

  136. Hadi I saw that and its too bad mixing is going to get involved in parts of SNE. If that run happens you would have a widespread 6 plus inches across SNE if no mixing was involved.
    I feel when all is said and done 1936-37 will still stand as the least snowiest on record.

  137. Joe Joyce Still think is going to be tough to accumulate right at the coast with onshore winds…few miles inland may be looking at a real dumping of snowfall. I will be out in the elements all day night and morning. This should be fun! Wish me luck!

      1. That NAM will not verify. The ripples of energy aren’t strong enough to produce that much qpf even it if remained all snow.

  139. I guess you could see logan at 4 inches and places like Brookline, JP West Roxbury, Newton at 8 inchs? Not sure what to think

  140. Update from the NWS at 10:15 AM

    12Z NAM MOVED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED FOR
    THE 06Z RUN SO WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE
    EXISTING FORECAST. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SOME RAIN IN THE COASTAL
    PLAIN GIVEN MILD TEMPS…BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS
    TEMPS WET BULB TO 32-34 DEGREES. SNOW MAY HAVE A DIFFCULT TIME
    ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
    FREEZING TEMPS SO MUCH OF THE ACCUM HERE MAY BE CONFINED TO COLDER
    SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS.

    PRECIP MOVING IN A BIT QUICKER AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION
    FROM NOON TO 3 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.

  141. My location is roughly 12 to 13 miles west of the shoreline. If the amount of snow was strictly based on distance from the coast then I might get 4″ to 6″ but because I am in the southern sections that would be unlikely. The biggest snowfall I received this year was 3.5″ and I would like to break that but its a very small chance.

  142. JC Monahan at 11 am update said that snow was about to begin in western MA.

    Also the NAM and IWS are in total agreement! 🙂

      1. I was just going to post that…rain/snow line not quite making it to Boston. Probably unrealistic, but who knows? 🙂

    1. Haha. I figured you’d like the IWS. I’d love that to happen but it’s just not going to from boston south and east:(

  146. Radar showing snow down into NJ.

    Harvey just tweed 3-6 Boston and 5-10 NW of the pike and 1-3 Cape, but did say it may change. Also said long duration storm through Thur night and during lighter periods it may mix with rain at times

  147. A reminder – these are lowest snow total guesses – next one after rainshine is me and I guessed 38 – not getting there 🙂

    Longshot 3.00
    Charlie 23.90
    Tom 27.00
    retrac 29.00
    Rainshine 30.00

    By my quick figuring it has to get over 10.45 for season to put Charlie in the running! That means only 2.85 at Logan out of this. Longshot, you may hold your 5th consecutive month but looking awfully close for the year!

      2. I missed 0.2 on the 26th and there are a bunch of traces – do we add those in

        This is what I have for season which adds to 7.8 so my figures above are off by 0.2

        10/30/11 0.60
        10/29/11 0.40
        1/10/12 0.50
        1/16/12 1.20
        1/17/12 0.20
        1/19/12 0.30
        1/20/2012 1.5
        1/21/12 2.90
        25-Jan 0.2

      2. oh you might be one to answer a friends qustion. His mom is flying out of providence tomorrow morning to FL – any idea of what the chances are?

  150. Forecasts are for a dry snow. I can’t see that, due to warm surface and winds coming out of east. Why are they saying a dry snow? Shouldn’t the temps. be much colder? Granted, any snow coming down will lower the temps., but I am just wondering.

    1. It’s flurrying in norther rhode island where the leading edge of precip is. I think the column will saturate quite quickly especially when the heavier stuff moves in.

    1. It’ll saturate–and I agree with you on rain/snow/BL temps etc…I was just commenting on JMA’s very astute call on front end drying.

  157. It has been snowing here in Manchester, CT (10 miles east of Hartford) for about an hour now. It has been a light, fine snow so far and there is now a dusting on benches and grassy surfaces. Roads are wet. Still 37 degrees in Hartford.

    1. It did not take long for the column to saturate here at all. The problem is the temps…too warm. Not expecting more than a few inches here before the changeover.

  158. Afternoon all! Riding up the lift at Killington (gloves off, it’s cold!) I’ve been a spectator to the blog since I’ve been up here but lots of good stuff and uncertainty as well. Wouldn’t be the winter of 2011-2012 if there wasn’t! It’s been snowing lightly up here since 9am, picking up in intensity last hour. Winds picking up and temps dropping. The cold is def coming ur way!

    2. AceMaster – GREAT time to be there – just got an auto email from Killington that said

      “White gold, cold smoke, fresh powder – no matter what you call it, Mother Nature has delivered 17 inches of new SNOW in the last seven days and the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning through Friday”

  160. Channel 5 upped their amounts a little: 4-8″ but said north shore on the lower end and Boston right on rain snow line.

  165. Light snow now falling in Sudbury.

    Forecasts are for a dry snow. I can’t see that, due to warm surface and winds coming out of east. Why are they saying a dry snow? Shouldn’t the temps. be much colder? Granted, any snow coming down will lower the temps., but I am just wondering.

    1. Yea! 🙂 Hadi, I think you and I are just far enough in from the coast to see the higher end of forecasted totals. At least, I hope!

      1. when it’s time, that rain/snow line could advance to Boston in a 1/2 hour if conditions are right. That could change rapidly.

  174. Not good to see the death total (at least 13) rising quicky after last night’s severe weather in the Midwest. It’s always seem to be worse when storms hit overnight.

  178. Barry Burbank ‏ @BarryWBZ
    Fuzzy zone over Cape Ann and immediate coastal area through Boston onto the South Shore… depends upon extent of mixing in these areas.#wbz

  179. Still think we get a gloppy 4 inches of snow in Boston. We’ll see. More snow points west and north. Could be a whopper in places like Portland, Maine, where it may snow on and off for 36 hours. By the way, the weekend storm will bring rain to Boston, but not as much as originally forecast, and I don’t think it makes it to 50 here in Boston on Saturday. Model trends are already showing cooler temperatures for the weekend than were forecast 18 hours ago. Good news for ski country where they could ill-afford an all-out rain event. I never saw an all-out rain event anyway up north this weekend. In fact, higher elevations could see some snow, particularly on the back end of the storm Sunday morning, but lower elevations will get a nasty mix of everything, with temps generally 35-40. Turning much colder up north after the storm pulls away. Even Boston should see temps in the teens at night early next week. I’m also skeptical about the big warm-up that many think is coming next week and will last for awhile. First it was going to come Sunday, then Monday, then Tuesday, and now Wednesday next week. Yes, I do think it’ll warm up some, looking ahead I sense a more complex atmosphere with more unexpected dips in the jetstream and less pronounced unusual warmth. I think the models are lagging a bit. It’s as if they’ve now caught up with the way the rest of the winter has been (anomaly) but can’t handle the changes that will bring us back to a more normal (late) winter pattern.

  182. Wondering if my question above was kind of silly, re: water content of snow.

    Snow sticking to grassy surfaces now.

    1. rainshine – I didn’t think they were silly as I was thinking the same thing and was waiting to see what the answer was also especially since someone (sorry can’t remember who) said he was worried about the wet snow causing power outages ——— and we all know why that caught my attention 🙂

      1. Thanks, Vicki – I saw on The Weather Channel and I think on NOAA at some point saying “dry snow”. Believe me, the snow outside now is not dry. It’s a heavy, wet snow at this point.

        My “self-pity” button is on and I am feeling kind of invisible. 🙁

        If it were summer, unless it was really hot, I wouldn’t mind the lights out. But, at this time of year, no lights, heat – it’s cold!

  183. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    — Changed Discussion —
    1 PM UPDATE…
    SNOW IS RACING INTO SNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH CAPE
    COD DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THE PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD
    OF RAIN ON THE CAPE BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. MOSTLY RAIN
    EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE TEMPS IN THE 40S AND DEWPOINTS
    CLOSE TO 30. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS A PERIOD OF MOD/HVY
    SNOW IS LIKELY AND RUC SUPPORTS THIS WITH A DECENT SLUG OF QPF
    THROUGH 00Z. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
    CENTRAL AND W MA…N CT INTO NW RI WHERE 2-4″ POSSIBLE BY
    EVENING. 1-2″ EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION
    HERE MAY BE CONFINED TO THE COLDER SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS AS
    TEMPS HOVER AORUND 33. IT STILL APPEARS DRY SLOT WILL BE MOVING
    INTO REGION TOWARD 00Z AS THIS INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MOVES
    OUT.
    — End Changed Discussion —

  184. Looks like a real mess to our west; from the SPC:

    MIXED WINTER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
    SERN/S-CNTRL NY…WRN CT…WRN MA…AND FAR NERN PA…INCLUDING
    AREAS WITH SNOW RATES TO 1 IN/HR AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05
    IN/HR.

    STRONG WAA PER 12Z 850- AND 700-MB UPPER AIR ANALYSES IS SUPPORTING
    A BROAD SHIELD OF STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS WRN NY AND PA…WHICH IS
    FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS
    AFTERNOON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES ATOP THE SUB-FREEZING SFC
    LAYER /SUPPORTED IN SOME AREAS BY WET-BULBING EFFECTS/…A MIX OF
    WINTER PRECIP TYPES WILL OCCUR. INITIALLY…THE COLUMN IS FORECAST
    TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR MAINLY SNOW…WITH RATES LOCALLY
    REACHING 1 IN/HR…PARTICULARLY OVER THE CATSKILL MOUNTAINS AND THE
    LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION AFTER 17Z. THIS IS AFFIRMED BY THE
    BULK OF SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL SPC
    SSEO GUIDANCE. A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE CENTERED AROUND -3C TO
    -1C BETWEEN THE 930 MB AND 650 MB LEVELS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW
    AGGREGATION PROCESSES.

    AFTER 19Z…THE PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
    FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH…AS TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
    ELEVATED WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB INCREASE OWING TO CONTINUING
    WAA ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE…AND
    THIS WILL BE OF GREATEST CONCERN IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE SFC
    TEMPERATURES HOLD AOB FREEZING. A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO RAIN MAY
    OCCUR ACROSS FAR NERN PA AND FAR SERN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN AREAS
    WHERE SFC WAA IS SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE THE SFC TEMPS TO ABOVE 32F.

  185. It has been snowing for 2.5 hours now in Hartford and having real trouble accumulating. Still only a dusting on grassy surfaces, benches, etc. Roads just wet. Temps above freezing, higher sun angle, and not very intense precip are limiting the accumulations.

  187. Bust potential here. Or should I say “the TK I told you so” potential! I’d be surprised if Hartford gets more than an inch or two out of this initial slug. Dry slot is already to Scranton, PA. Snow has picked up in intensity but is still struggling to accumulate. Perhaps you’ll do a bit better N & W of Boston with the longer duration of precip and slightly colder temps.

    1. Ground too warm, air temp too warm, thus low accumulations. I think people got caught up with the amount of snow that is progged to fall from the sky, but that does not translate into accumulations:(

    2. I thought tv mets had low amounts for your area? Although I have to say that accumulation on all areas except roads makes it a nice snow – pretty and safe and least amount of shoveling. Great combination! As long as it does accumulate on grassy surfaces that is!

  188. Temp dropped from 39.1 at noon to 34.1 at 1:555 – snow on trees and most of grass covered but pavement still just wet

  189. Mark I never thought it would add to much down by your way. I guess the question remains after dark tonight how intense the snow is and wether it will stick to the roads or not.

      1. It’s the second burst that occurs after midnight that is “allegedley” supposed to give us our greatest snow accumulations. With this batch, an inch or two in most locations except right along the immediate coast where wet roads will be the theme.

  190. Accuweather is showing an East wind of 6mph in Blackstone which is west of 495. Do we have a coastal front setting up?

  191. 29 degrees in Worcester and it’s been snowing since noon. The intensity has appeared to increase in the last half hour or so. Grass and cold cars are coated. It’s staring to stick on sidewalks and driveways now. I’m guessing by the PM commute the roads are going to be pretty messy.

    1. Christie – temp difference from Framingham to Worcester is interesting – 5 degrees warmer here. I did notice it’s now accumulating on the edges of my deck away from the house.

  192. Two nice bands of moderate snow setting up albeit they will be brief in nature. One is over Stoughton and moving toward Boston, Quincy and Weymouth. And there is another nice band in north central Rhode Island which may follow a similiar path if it holds up.

    2. Where is this 6 going to come from? It may fall from the sky but it won’t accumulate 6 inches in the city let alone nearby northwestern suburbs. As TK stated. It’s been snowing for almost a few hours and most places have a trace to a coating of snow on grassy surfaces. Again, the second wave that comes in tonight should be where most accumulation occurs and that will be dependent upon where the rain/snow line sets up shop at that point.

        1. The city itself will be lucky if anything accumulates on the roads. I just don’t see 6 inches in the city but I hope I’m wrong.

  195. That band I spoke of is overhead Woonsocket RI and is snowing moderately. Another nice band just south of the city is hitting quincy and braintree.

  197. Snowingright to the ocean in eastern Marshfield……….coating on the trees and lawns with nothing on the pavement. Not much wind, snow is falling straight down.

      1. I don’t think much because I don’t think there’ll be a big difference in temp aloft or at the surface btwn our locations…..when I drove him just now, there was no difference in what has btwn Roche Bros and my neighborhood, right by the ocean.

          1. Well, I’d think if there’s issues aloft as far as a warm layer, yes, I’d think that milder air may come in from the south or southwest. As far as the surface, I don’t think there’ll be a great temp difference btwn Marshfield and several miles inland.

  198. Moderate band of snow over rhode island and southeastern mass blossoming and about to hit fall river area.

  199. We will be at the lower end of the those snow totals. I would not be surprised once this first wave exits it stay dry for a bit across parts of SNE.
    The other side of this storm system bad outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes with some fatalities.

  200. So I guess people don’t think that it counts if it does not accumilate on the pavement vs. the grassy area? I will still take 6 inches on the grassy areas vs. nothing!!!

  201. So what is the time line for this event? The current batch departing in a few hours, the next one tomorrow morning and then final one tomorrow night?

  202. Another thing working against the predicted totals ever really being on the ground are lulls in the precip in which what has fallen starts to settle and/or melt. Less of a factor at night but will continue for a few more hours then renew again first thing tomorrow morning. Also looks like final moderate batch is during the daytime tomorrow – not favorable for accumulation.

    Though some elevated and inland areas will do “well” by the standards of this winter, I don’t think many are taking into account the difference between modeled snowfall and the ability of the snow to stay where it falls.

    1. That’s exactly what I’m saying. What falls from the sky is very different from what actually sticks to the warm ground.

  203. Not that it matters, but….. I’m just not feeling enthusiasm for this snow. It had the last 3 months to do this……I’m kind of ready for real spring. 🙂

    I know, I know…we’ve been living spring…but not to me, it’s still been dark early at night, everything’s brown…etc, etc.

  204. That radar really has my attention south of the city as that moderate snow band continues to expand and inch north eastward. It really hasn’t moved very far over that last 1/2-1 hr.

        1. Fortunately, the dry slot will be short lived. It fills right back in again behind it. But this will be the theme. At times, moderate snow, other times no snow and other times light snow.

  205. Whats the difference if it accumulated on grass, cars or roadways. If its 1″ or 6″. It’s snowing!!!!

    Get out there and enjoy it!

    1. The difference is that snowfall accumulations cannot be recorded if it accumulates on a car. Also, kids cannot build a snowman, hahaha:)

    1. Current idea, around 3 or 4 for the entire event, but there may never be that much on the ground at once.

  207. This is the way winter has gone, if it was cold enough we would have 3-5 inches of snow already, I have a coating to half inch on grass, absolutely nothing on any roads

    1. It’s been snowing for three hours and not at the rate of an inch an hour so I do not think we would have 3-5 inches by now. More like 1-1.5.

  208. If the snow accumulates 3″ on the grass and nothing on the pavement, then what would the actual reporting measurement be?

  213. Temps cooling, night time is approaching, and still yet another few hours of precip on this first batch. Now is where we may pick up our 1-2 inches before the second heavier batch of precip moves in late tonight. That is the key batch and that is where the rain/snow line becomes crucial as to who gets what. Whoever stays all snow could see several inches from that wave.

  214. How can there be a winter storm warning in Boston and at the same time TK and others called for 1″ in Boston? Will we keep the record as some was mentioning?

  215. Barry Burbank ‏ @BarryWBZ

    Expect snow of varying intensity into tomorrow night! Final impulse passes with some heavier snow later tomorrow into the evening

    1. Even more confusing is that Norfolk County is in a winter weather advisory, yet, it’s more likely that Norlfolk County will end up with more snow than the city of Boston who is in a WSW! Explain that one.

      1. I think more so for the burbs of Boston, west and south of the city would end up on the higher end vs. logan.

        1. Exactly Hadi. That’s where I live. Just southwest of the city in the town of Stoughton. I expect Stoughton to do much better than Boston given it’s inland locale. However, Stoughton is in an advisory and Boston is in a warning which makes no sense to me at all.

  217. We have exactly one inch on my deck in Pelham, NH; nothing on the roads and it is 30.3 degrees. My elevation is about 380 feet. This storm will bring a lot of surprises from town to town. I was surprised to hear BB calling for as much as he was…

    1. Just heard from a friend in Southbridge and she said it’s on the side roads there and that her bushes/trees are sagging.

  219. NWS has 8-10 out here in worcester area. I’m sorry but I just don’t see it. I’m sticking with my 6-8 call and I’m even nervous about that. Am I splitting hairs?

    1. 6-8 is more likely and don’t be nervous about that. This initial impulse wasn’t expected to produce much retrac. It’s the second batch that occurs while everyone is sleeping that should produce 6+ inches for Worcester by late morning tomorrow. A smaller, less energized, and shorter lived batch comes in later tomorrow which could produce another couple of inches.

      1. I have a sneaky feeling that either the 2nd or 3rd batch, and possibly both, may not live up to their full potential. Something about the 3rd batch really worries me. I almost see it lifting north and being almost entirely in NH.

        1. And what do you base that on? I don’t see that with the second batch. However, I can see how the third batch may get robbed of its energy.

        2. the radar returns have been just so streaky so far and I’m wondering if that’s what we’re getting set up for. Just a gut feeling.

          1. I was thinking that too, retrac. The radar just doesn’t seem very robust, not that it’s been forecast to be one of “those” types of storms. I’ll be most interested to see what the second wave does for us overnight.

            1. I’m right in Holden Christie (Worcester for you right)–We usually do pretty well here as you know. This will probably be the last shot we have this winter. I might not even clear the driveway with the mild weather right around the corner again.

  222. I’m thinking around 6 inches for where I live in Westborough. TK is that what you think I can expect?

    1. I can see that being the case. Even in the areas that “do well” for snow there is going to be variability with elevation and surfaces.

      These storms suck for accumulation prediction because you have an area of 3-6, for example, and people expect 3-6 everywhere, when it fact it’s 3-6 on the grass and 1-3 on the pavement.

      1. Ok thanks. So far we have about 1.1 inches on unpaved surfaces and it is finally gradually beginning to stick to paved surfaces…

  223. Has been snowing for 5 hours now east of Hartford, CT (200′ elev) and moderately for the past 2.5 We still only have 1″ of accumulation on the grass and the roads are just wet. My wife says it is a bit worse at our house (700′ elev) and untreated roads are slushy there.

    Note the back edge of accumulating snow is now at roughly a NYC to Albany line.

  224. Wow..Tornado Watches in effect all the way north to Cleveland,OH! Lots of convection right now in W Virginia on the radar. Perhaps it is looking more promising for the second batch?

  225. I’m stuck in the dry slot here. Hardly snowing for the last hour, and the 0.3 inch I got so far is starting to go away! HAHAHA!

      1. Maybe……

        I’ve had weird luck this week.

        2 times in 2 days I almost got broadsided on the way home, first by a guy that blew a stop sign yesterday and then today by a guy that went right through a red light at full speed. But I’m lucky because I escaped them both!

        1. Glad you’re okay! I also escaped two near-accidents this week! The worst was when I was driving in the right lane when a guy in the left lane took a right (without signaling or even looking) directly in front of me. He cut me off just so he didn’t miss the parking lot for Starbucks! Gah!

          Three cheers for good luck! (Although in my instances it was less luck and more of my ninja reflexes.)

  226. Another nice band over rhode island and heading toward fall river again. Relatively speaking, this was one of the harder hit areas today. In another couple few hours, this batch is history.

  227. There is no coastal front in play.

    Temps 30-35 everywhere (bit colder in the hills). Wind east virtually everywhere.

    All the precip so far is a result of overrunning at mid levels.

  228. As this last impulse moves through, look for moderate/heavy snow to move from west to east start in connecticut and then impacting rhode island and then southeastern ma. Could be an interesting couple of hours for these locales.

  230. Note: That second batch up precip better get energized when it hits the coast or that will be a dud. As of now, it’s not very impressive appearing.

    1. Thank goodness for that easterly LLJ or that second batch would be a dud. Yet, tha LLJ is what brings in the warm air:( You can’t win this winter.

  231. Back edge of batch number one into western parts of SNE. A lull and then will see what happens next.
    On the other side of the storm system tornado watches with many severe weather reports and just saw there was an EF 4 tornado.

  232. I notice both WHDH and BZ have tilted their larger accumulation areas a bit northwest of Framingham from where they had them before. I saw HDH’s move earlier and just noticed BZ did the same – darn. It’s going to have to get its act in shape if it’s going to produce even 3 inches here – unless of course that third round really delivers – I have my fingers crossed

    And some of the Christmas lights are still on our roof and we will be turning them on 🙂

    1. Actually BZ expanded it’s 3-6 inch area even further south and east than what they had earlier today.

      1. I thought it was riding right along the pike and inside 495 halfway to 128. It now seems to have swung above and west of 495 and away from that area of pike

          1. Lol. The 3-6 inch line is even south and east of 128 down to about plymouth county. I don’t agree with it but that is what BZ says.

  233. national weather service saying 8-12 where i live
    wbz news saying 6-10 what the national weather service was saying earlier and last night
    channal 7 news 2-5/5-8 inches
    weather channal 10-16 inches
    channal 5 saying 4-8 inches
    fox 3-6 inches
    i say 5-10.inches
    currently have about .5 to 1 inch right now. up in the yard
    about 1 to 1.5 inches in the marshland. absolutly know wind , so i do not know why its more down there than up in the yard.

  234. 32 here with a 31 dew point. Was snowing at a good clip but now its lighter. Starting to stick on the walkway and driveway edges.

  237. Greetings from pembroke. Smooth ride home down rt 3. Escaped overtime tonight, and am so happy. Plenty of that so I don’t mind.

  239. TK. How does batch number two materialize for us tonight? I do not see anything impressive on radar. Is it the LLJ that will create the omega? It looks to me, that if things don’t change suddenly, that this “snowstorm” could be over for good until that final upper level low over the great lakes spins over us tomorrow afternoon dusting the area with snow. Could this be a huge bust?

  240. 442 comments…is that a new record?

    Not that this storm isn’t exciting me, but did anyone notice the coastal low that the GFS and GGEM tries to form on Monday? It skirts Nantucket and if the track is any closer, it would be cold enough to support snow. NWS mentions that a few GFS ensembles are even closer to the coast with the track and that it bears watching….

  241. Isn’t it kind of early in the season for there to be a tornado threat as far north as PA, IL and other areas?

  242. Just got in an saw this email alert. Could Boston really get as much as 8″?
    WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY.
    THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW.POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET & FREEZING RAIN.
    WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
    * LOCATIONS.IMMEDIATE BOSTON METRO AREA & THE NO. SHORE.
    * HAZARD TYPES.SNOW.SLEET & FREEZING RAIN.
    * ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.ALONG WITH AROUND A LIGHT COATING OF ICE.

  243. Ok. I’m not moving on my #’s right now because of these reasons:

    1) The first batch is doing what I expected (only it was in a few hours earlier than I thought).

    2) A lull is coming.

    3) The PA precip area is likely going mostly south of most of the region.

    4) We have to depend on whatever generates at mid levels and that’s a big GAMBLE.

    5) We have the upper low to come across on Thursday and those are never guarantees for good snow unless they go just south of you. This one isn’t going to do that.

  244. I think Boston will be closer to the 4. I don’t understand why Boston was upgraded to a warning. Higher elevations of SNE have the best shot at making warning criteria.
    We have a watcher for early next week and then I see a big time warmup middle to end of next week.

    1. I think too many of them are taking the model data verbatim and treating this as if it were a January storm, not an early March storm, where it’s harder to accumulate snow for the many reasons TK and others have noted above.

  249. I figure snow is snow. I have lights on the front bushes and a lovely doe thatbimleave out all winter to light when it snows and I’m listening to lovely instrumental Christmas music.

    Did I forget to also mention I have a martini in hand. Gotta enjoy what we get !!

  250. Back edge moving through Worcester now. Batch number one exiting. Let’s hope there is even a batch number two.

        1. It’s a he Vicki, lol, but thank you. I’m able to keep you informed because I didn’t see too many patients today.

    1. Perhaps not completely but there is no organized batch of precip behind this first wave as of yet. TK says that area of precip in PA never makes it here. We will have to rely on the mid levels to generate it’s own precip. The LLJ will help but it will also help to generate warmer air.

    1. Nice !! It’s kind of a rain-snow mix here in eastern Marshfield with this afternoon’s coating still on the ground.

  253. There is some mid level lift regenerating in upstate new york that is being picked up on radar however that area of precip will be confined to central and northern new england. We need precip to generate west and southwest of us.

    1. Been watching that. Some storms are starting to pop up NW of the larger area in PA. They may play a role in energizing the zone over us later on…

  254. Just light snow here. That 2nd batch needs to move up here otherwise this ain’t ginna happen the way we hope. We shall see !! Either way when I picked my son up the exit ment in his voice was priceless!!

  256. I don’t think that area of precip in south central PA is factored in as the second batch of precip. The prevail shows up nicely initialized on the 12z and 18z GFS and matches up well to it’s location. It’s projected to miss our region to the south………Maybe it’s the LLJ or other factors, but the next batch of precip energizes over eastern NY and western New England and then moves eastward thru New England.

  257. very light snow falling in Pembroke. I will get up a 1/2 early tomorrow at 4am but don’t really expect to see much more than I am seeing now. Who knows.

  258. Areas on the south shore including fall river, new bedford, etc, continue to get hard with persistent moderate snow. I think they will make out best out of this first batch. Snow is hanging on tough down there.

      1. Just to the south and west of you they are getting hit pretty good and it’s sliding east southeast:( However, light snow continues to hold tough in eastern ma. I thought it would have shut off by now. There’s that easterly LLJ doing it’s work for coastal communities.

  260. There is the warm sector of the storm. Friday could be another big day for severe weather in parts of the midwest and south.
    Thankfully we will get just the rain here on Saturday and no severe weather.

    2. I was quiet because I was making a killer batch of mac & cheese. 😉

      Looking things over again.

      1. Will you be updating blog with any thoughts. Hope your dinner was good. How you feeling on that 1inch prediction for logan.

        1. Working on an update now. Still liking the 1 inch but it can be in jeopardy tomorrow if the upper’s potential is maximized. Tonight, I think they are too warm and start mixing with rain. In fact I’ve now heard 2 reports of mix on the coast already.

          1. Make that three. And I am sure you will put in your blog but how do you see Boston tomorrow day for sticking. Thank’s.

        1. The crew is in and will be all night. I am not 1oo% cleared I am 99%. but no worries we get overtime all year long as we are very lucky. I offered but they could not take that chance.

        1. Oh that’s easy.

          1) Get box of Velveeta shells and cheese.
          2) Open box and take out # of pouches needed for desired # of servings.
          3) Follow directions on box.
          4) Yum!

              1. I see recipes and I must respond. A friend just recently told me to make mac and cheese using campbell’s cheddar cheese soup as your base; add white and yellow cheddar; bacon if you like such a thing and you don’t have to bother with a roux.
                On a more relevant note, there’s maybe (and that’s a big maybe) an inch of snow on the grass here in Milton. Roads are clear and I’m hoping it stays that way.

  264. Here is what Upton NY thinks the second wave will go. I think the brunt of it misses us
    A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
    TONIGHT BUT LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG IT OFF THE
    SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. MODELS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL WITH ECMWF
    AND CMC MORE OVER SOUTHEAST PA THAN GFS AND NAM WHICH HAVE IS EAST
    OF NJ COAST.

  265. Latest obs….

    Logan and Marshfield both 36F with light rain…mild air at the surface

    Providence, RI…. ice pellets….some layer of mild air aloft

    1. Brighton just rose from 30 to 32.5 in the last hour. I don’t think we’ll get much more from this event, or non-event 🙂

  267. Snow has changed to rain here temp up to 35, we’ve gotten around an inch of snow, back roads r tricky, main roads r wet 🙂

  269. Boston didn’t get much, a friend said it was mainly on car tops, I think I may have been off just slightly but close, I got around a slushy inch, b careful 🙂 temps r rising 36.4 here

  271. It was the same at Fan Pier at around 5, snow on car tops and grass, roads and sidewalks wet. It’s raining here in Quincy, and the temp is 34.9.

  272. Temp steady here at 34.4 since late afternoon Still mod snow. Road now covered Daughter said about 3 inches in Uxbridge. Friend in southbridge said trees and bushes bent over and roads covered and big snow like look

  273. Well, I ended up with 4.5″ at my house in Coventry, CT. Roads were terrible when I got home. Our elevation (700′) certainly played a big part in this storm. When I left my office in Manchester about 8 miles away (200′ elev), there was only about 1″ on the ground and the roads were just wet.

    We had freezing rain and sleet the past few hours, but it has now tapered off. 32 F.

  274. There is more to come tonight and tomorrow so those totals should continue to increase. I will post them in the morning and see where we are at.

  276. Here in Hingham it’s 35f here at 9:15. Light rain falling and what little snow that did manage to stick is now all but washed away.

  277. Meteorological spring tomorrow…..requires a prediction 🙂

    4 months in a row of 5F + temp anomalies at Logan ( Nov – Feb ).

    I figure that March isn’t suddenly going to be normal or below. By May, if the NAO remained positive, that would be 8 straight months in a row. I’ll predict that sometime in late April, some episodes of -NAO will appear.

    March : well above normal temps, below normal precip

    April : a bit above normal temps, below normal precip

    May : normal to slightly below normal temps, avg precip

  279. a slightly wt snow here in billerica. it feels powdery with a small amount of moisture texture to it. recorded 1.5 inches

  281. god i hope i have a snow day tomorrow. It does not look good as the snow will fall before 3 am and then looks not to start up again until about 8am.:(

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