DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

In stark contrast to the final weekend of spring (June 18-19), which featured anomalously cool and breezy weather with a lot of cloud cover at times, and an episode of showery weather mid weekend, this first weekend of summer will feature dry weather, moderate humidity, lots of sun both days, and a will be on the hot side – not super hot, but hot enough for most folks. High pressure will be in control, with the center of the high drifting eastward from the Middle Atlantic States to a position off the East Coast. Today’s wind field will be weak enough to allow a sea breeze to easily develop, and cool down coastal areas and for up to a few miles inland too. Tomorrow’s wind field will be a little bit stronger from the southwest, which is a wind off the water for the South Coast, Cape Cod, and parts of Cape Ann, so those will be your coolest areas. But other portions of the eastern shoreline can still see a sea breeze develop for part of the midday and afternoon hours as well. If Boston is going to reach 90 for the first time this year, it’s going to happen on Sunday, as I’m pretty confident a sea breeze will prevent it today. Tomorrow, even if we see the sea breeze there, they have a shot to reach 90 either before it happens or late in the day when it likely quits. So that might be the “most exciting” to track with the weather this weekend, since there is pretty much a zero shower / t-storm threat with the atmosphere being too stable, despite the heating up of the atmosphere. Things change Monday when a cold front slides into and across the region. While this is not likely to be a particularly fast-moving front, it will be moving along, and I feel that the timing of the front will be early enough in the day to prevent the strongest possible thunderstorms from forming. It’ll also present a great deal of cloudiness starting very early in the day, limiting heating, so it’ll end up about 10 degrees cooler than the weekend days, but more humid up until the front goes by. Will we get a widespread rainfall out of this? It’s possible, because we may see a solid band of showers, but it won’t be around for all that long and it being our only real chance of rain during this 5-day period, any benefit for our rainfall deficit and evolving drought situation will be limited. A cooler, drier air mass moves in for Tuesday with high pressure approaching the region, and the high center, while weak, will be right over our region with fair weather Wednesday – a day that would feature a bit of an inland warm-up while coastal areas see a sea breeze. We may see a bit more cloudiness later Wednesday pending the timing of an approaching disturbance from the west. At day-5 that’s a little difficult to pin down as it will likely be a very small, weak, and fast-moving feature.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84 coast, 84-91 inland. Dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH with some local sea breeze eastern shores.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. More humid, dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms midday-afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W by late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying out with dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

High pressure will be the main controlling factor in the weather heading into and through the holiday weekend with mainly dry weather. A warming trend comes early in the period (June 30 / July 1), a weak frontal system comes through at some point around July 2 with the only shower / t-storm threat foreseen, and probably brief at that, and then a Canadian air mass arrives for the latter portion of the period, based on current timing expectations.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

A little more hinting at reinforcing cooler air from Canada on some guidance while other guidance shows a more seasonable westerly flow, so there is some uncertainty here. What I am fairly confident of at this point is that we stay in a mostly dry weather pattern.