Monday June 27 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)

41 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A cold front moves across the region to start the week with our only real chance of rain during the next 5 days. I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity – probably just some embedded areas of heavy showers and possible thunder in a more general widespread light to moderate shower area. We don’t have enough time for decent heating as extensive cloud cover was already moving into the region to start the day, and there are a couple of other limiting factors in terms of helping bigger storms develop. The slow but steadily moving front slides offshore tonight. Dry Canadian air arrives for Tuesday – a very nice day but with a breeze. High pressure overhead brings another nice day Wednesday, but a much weaker field field will allow the development of coastal sea breezes. A weak disturbance will move across the region quick from west to east Wednesday night with some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower, but high pressure moves back in for Thursday – a very nice summer day to end June. This high will slide offshore and it looks like the heat will be on to welcome the month of July on Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers through mid morning. Widespread showers and possible embedded thunderstorms late morning to late afternoon. Highs 73_80. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W from west to east across there region during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying out with dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

Warm/humid July 2 with a cold front bringing a shower/t-storm threat – timing on that is uncertain but any interruption to fair weather will likely be brief. A northwesterly air flow arrives for July 3-4 with fair weather and drier air and that high should hang around with dry weather and a warm-up for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

We may be vulnerable to showers/thunderstorms in the July 7-8 period as we’ll be near an air mass boundary with some disturbances moving through. The longer range call is for fair weather to return for the July 9-10 weekend as well as the end of the period.

41 thoughts on “Monday June 27 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)”

    1. Even though nothing has yet developed, climatologically, that has been an impressive looking African wave for late June.

        1. Look at last year’s stops and starts in an active year:

          5 storms (4 tropical storms, 1 hurricane) formed before the end of June. Storm #6 didn’t develop until August 11. The 6 weeks between mid-August and the end of September featured 15 storms (1 subtropical storm, 8 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes). After that, the final 2 months of the season had just 1 tropical storm.

  7. Boston Public Schools official last day of school is today. Stupid to have it on a Monday imo.

      1. A number of years ago, it was June 30. If I recall, it was a makeup for a lot of snow days over that winter. I don’t believe BPS had all that many snow days this year though.

      1. So Tk would you say as of now the long weekend will be good for summer activities beach , pool & cookouts

    1. I think many cities have there recorded temperatures at airports. And most airports are well away from the city they represent. Another one is right down the road in Providence where there temperatures are recorded in a whole different city 10 miles south.

      1. I don’t know where NH records its record temp. I’m thinking you must. Concord? Manchester?

  13. Record found no west winds, and only 1 southwest wind at 5 knots. Which of course means that NHC will claim that it has a closed center and can call it a tropical storm, since they had 42 knot winds at flight level well north and west of the center.

    1. National Hurricane Center
      @NHC_Atlantic
      ·
      16m
      NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

  14. A couple of model thoughts as how they predict sensible weather outcomes this summer in SNE.

    ECMWF – Too hot for high temps with a south or southwest wind. Too cold for high temps with a west or northwest wind. Too wet in its 7-10 day and usually reduces the QPF by half in the 3-5 day range.

    GFS – Tends to leave lingering moisture around too long in the 3-7 day period. Which is odd for it, compared to past versions. Consistently too hot 11-16 days.

    1. Wait, so you’re saying that you’re not buying the ECMWF forecast of 100 in CON/MHT/ASH on Friday with SW winds of 10-15 mph? Or the 2-4″ of rain it dumps on the Cape and the Islands Saturday night and Sunday?

        1. 100% – book it.

          Took me a little bit to put it all in order. But the wind directions are for sure a miss since late May.

          Find me the number of 2” rains from a single system this late spring / early summer?

          Yet, somehow these outputs continue to be applied region wide with a broad brush.

    2. By the way yes and yes regarding both models. I’ve been using those apparent biases when referring to them over the last several weeks..

      I will say that for a little while, GFS was struggling big time with the general pattern, while ECMWF was doing better (verification scores showed that) but since then, they’ve kind of reversed positions.

    1. If I heard correctly, it started out as a waterspout then became a tornado once it touched down onto land.

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