Friday July 1 2022 Forecast (6:42AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

On this first day of July, many people begin a multi-day holiday weekend, so basically we treat this 5-day period like it’s one extended weekend, and weather-wise, it’s going to be a pretty good one as far as summertime weekends go. No, it’s not going to be perfect. We have some heat in the forecast, some thunderstorms in the forecast, and some wonderfully warm and dry weather as well. High pressure slides offshore today and in comes the heat. But the humidity is not going to jump up right away. That’s actually going to spike later today, mainly this evening, tonight, and into Saturday. On the heading edge of this “dew point boundary” we may see an isolated thunderstorm or two fire up somewhere in the WHW forecast area this afternoon, but I would not cancel any plans over it. Just keep an eye out for building clouds and if you hear thunder, be ready to move to a place of safety while any storm passes by your area. The most likely time for this to happen is mid to late afternoon. Tonight, the storm threat vanishes in the evening but returns overnight as a disturbance moves through the region. Another disturbance brings the chance of a couple morning showers and thunderstorms Saturday as we sit in the soupy air. And finally a cold front will slice across the region from northwest to southeast Saturday midday and afternoon, finally exiting via the South Coast during the evening hours. This front will trigger the best chance of thunderstorms, in terms of coverage and intensity, but it will likely take the place of one line or a couple line segments. Any of these storms can become strong to severe, so anybody with outdoor plans should be very aware of the weather Saturday. From Saturday evening on through Sunday as well as Independence Day Monday, it’s “clear sailing” with a Canadian air mass arriving and providing great weather. When we get to Tuesday, we’ll be eyeing the approach of a disturbance from the northwest which at least brings clouds, and perhaps a shower and thunderstorm chance. Some fine-tuning is needed for this, as quick-moving disturbances are hard to time beyond a couple days in advance.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated thunderstorms mid to late afternoon. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point ranging from middle 50s north and west to middle 60s South Coast through early afternoon, rising to middle to upper 60s all areas later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Variably cloudy overnight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early, then a passing shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and early evening from west northwest to east southeast across the region, with any thunderstorms potentially strong to locally severe. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s to around 70 through early afternoon, then falling slightly especially in northwestern areas by late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except variable with potential strong gusts near storms, shifting to W from northwest to southeast later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly South Coast. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling to upper 50s north of I-90 but staying in 60s to the south. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lingering clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 50s except lower 60s South Coast early. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Two disturbances should move through the region with a west to northwest flow during this period bringing opportunities for showers/thunderstorms for relatively brief periods of time, and some variable temperatures but not straying that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

Weaker westerly flow and more high pressure to the south should allow for warmth and somewhat higher humidity to be the rule but with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

39 thoughts on “Friday July 1 2022 Forecast (6:42AM)”

    1. Thanks JJ. I noticed all clear on the tornado chances.

      Here is the 6Z NAM sounding for central CT at 21Z tomorrow

      https://ibb.co/gdrm24q

      I would say either the next update or certainly tomorrow AM
      at least part of the area “should” be in the 2% chance of tornado and perhaps even 5%. Then again, the Pivotal Weather soundings usually show MORE severe than reality. 🙂

  6. JpDave good call when yesterday you said the sref risk area would expand. Quick look at the latest sref run shows that.

  9. So we finally have Tropical Storm Bonnie. Based on the initial forecast from NHC and where it was when it was finally upgraded, NHC only missed the time/location of it becoming a named system by 68 hours and 1570 miles. For comparison, PTC 1, which became Alex, they missed the time/location of it becoming a storm by 48 hours and 755 miles.

    In other words, with both storms, they needlessly advised several governments to issue watches and warnings (and everything that triggers), for what amounted to some thunderstorms moving across those respective regions.

    1. It’s sad how an organization that used to be so good has become the opposite…

  14. Quick look at the latest SREF run it is still showing SNE in a risk area tomorrow.

  15. Busy day so just getting a minute. Thank you, TK.

    90 with 71 DP. Daughters and family are spending the day at Humarock. Ferry hill wunder station has about the same temps. Not sure how it is right on the water

  16. dps are high. logan 68, 70 downtown, 71 at norwood.
    Yuiuiuuccccccckkkkkkkk*)&#[&&#^(#^(#(%#^@^@^#(/-^#

  17. Arrived at Hampton Beach NH at 8 a.m. and had my choice of parking spaces. Parked for $15 for the day while the back lots were charging $30 or $40. No wait for breakfast. Water was warmer than I expected. Nice breeze, wonderful weather. 🙂 Photo coming up…

    1. Very cool. One SIL has family in Humarock so they can park at their home. Otherwise, there is no parking

      1. Halos remind me of Dick Albert’s rhyme: “A halo around the sun or moon, means rain or snow soon.” 🙂

        Maybe I’m paraphrasing but you get the idea…certainly rain (severe storms?) for tomorrow.

  19. It took me all day but I just realized that today begins the 2022-2023 “snow” season (as per NWS). Summertime hail is included.

    Boston has never beaten Worcester in back-to-back snowfall seasons. One can dream? 😉

    1. Given that it’s only happened about 4 or 5 times in recorded weather history the chances of it happening twice in a row are exceedingly low.

  20. For the first time, the Albany NWS CWA had no severe thunderstorm warnings during the entire month of June.

  22. Oops. Not really awake. I put this on covid page.

    Well that was fast but a great light show and a few window rattling booms butwith very little wind and rain

  23. The National Thunderstorm Naming Center is at it again. There is a 1014mb low centered over eastern SC, just northeast of Charleston. It’s producing some thunderstorms offshore and a few wind gusts to 30 mph over water. For some reason, it is being named Tropical Storm Colin at 5am.

    No, today is not April 1, but this is one really big joke.

  24. From the NHC discussion:

    “Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston.”

    From NHC’s web page:
    “A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation.”

    So, by definition, it originates over water, but this one formed over land. Oh and by the way, there have been no reports of wind gusts over land or water to more than 30 mph, never mind the sustained winds of 39 mph you need for a tropical storm. Also, the lowest pressure observed over land thus far is 1014mb, but NHC is claiming it has a central pressure of 1011mb. They are literally just making it up as they go along.

    1. Those definitions don’t mean anything anymore. I’m not even sure why they are still posted. 🙁

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