It’s worth reiterating what I said about 10 months ago regarding the lack of an historic parallel. I thought – and many people did – that Covid would follow the trajectory of the Spanish Flu: Multiple waves over a 2 year period but then a rather abrupt end to all. Well, that hasn’t happened. I think it’s because of international travel and our increased mobility. Obviously, these things allow for transmissions, but also the spawning of new (sub)variants. The next one on the horizon is BA.2.75. It originated in India and has arrived in Europe. Very low levels right now, but it has enhanced transmissibility, more immune evasive properties, and a different pathogenic profile. This could trigger a major autumn wave. I hope it fizzles out. Some (sub)variants do.
Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, 3 mRNA shots, <3 months since last vaccination/booster (95% confidence interval)
Delta 89% (83-93)
Omicron BA.1 80% (74-84)
Omicron BA.2 74% (47-87)
(No data are available yet for BA.4/5). My guess is it'll be lower, and lower still for BA.2.75
C-19
7-3
ready
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Thanks TK.
Data in the U.S. from July 1st shows all Covid indicators moving up yet again. 7-day average of deaths is now approaching 400.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1543274553874427904
It’s worth reiterating what I said about 10 months ago regarding the lack of an historic parallel. I thought – and many people did – that Covid would follow the trajectory of the Spanish Flu: Multiple waves over a 2 year period but then a rather abrupt end to all. Well, that hasn’t happened. I think it’s because of international travel and our increased mobility. Obviously, these things allow for transmissions, but also the spawning of new (sub)variants. The next one on the horizon is BA.2.75. It originated in India and has arrived in Europe. Very low levels right now, but it has enhanced transmissibility, more immune evasive properties, and a different pathogenic profile. This could trigger a major autumn wave. I hope it fizzles out. Some (sub)variants do.
Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, 3 mRNA shots, <3 months since last vaccination/booster (95% confidence interval)
Delta 89% (83-93)
Omicron BA.1 80% (74-84)
Omicron BA.2 74% (47-87)
(No data are available yet for BA.4/5). My guess is it'll be lower, and lower still for BA.2.75
C-19
7-3
ready