Saturday July 2 2022 Forecast (7:04AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

An unsettled Saturday. That’s what we have. But we’ll have our “quiet times” around the region today too. A batch of showers and thunderstorms rolled across New England, thunder focused more toward the South Coast, in the pre-dawn to shortly-after-dawn time frame, and is heading offshore as I write this update. We’ll be vulnerable to showers and thunderstorms at any time here in the WHW today until this evening, but the tendency will be for the threat to diminish from northwest to southeast late-day / evening as a cold front slides through the region. If you have outdoor plans today, keep a very close eye on the weather. Any storms that do occur can be strong to severe. When it’s done, most people won’t see severe weather at all, but those that do can get a pretty solid hit. It’s very important to keep this in mind in any case, but even more so with this being a holiday weekend and many outdoor things going on. After today’s “headache” though, it’s clear sailing for Sunday and Independence Day Monday, as high pressure takes over and sends a refreshing Canadian air mass into our area. Tuesday looks more humid and unsettled as a disturbance moves into the region on a northwesterly air flow aloft, but this should be departing by Wednesday with some improvement in the weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, with any thunderstorms potentially strong to locally severe. Highs 79-86. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, possible higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to 50s north of I-90 but hanging in the lower 60s to the south. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lingering clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 50s except lower 60s South Coast early. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms, especially afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Two disturbances should move through the region with a west to northwest flow during this period bringing opportunities for showers/thunderstorms for relatively brief periods of time. Temperatures ups and downs with air mass changes but no extreme heat or cool anticipated during this time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Weaker westerly flow and more high pressure to the south should allow for warmth and somewhat higher humidity to be the rule but with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

68 thoughts on “Saturday July 2 2022 Forecast (7:04AM)”

    1. Thanks TK.

      I was awakened by the thunder around 4 – 4:30 this morning. Very strong imo. I’m surprised that you missed it JPD. Of course my window was open.

      1. we shut the windows last night plus I sleep with a cpap, so nope did not hear a thing.

  6. A couple storms reports from those thunderstorms that went by a few hours ago. This comes from the SPC

    2 ENE HAMPTON WINDHAM CT 4179 7201 TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON CHERRY HILL RD.

    2 NE LINCOLN PROVIDENCE RI 4193 7145 TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD BETWEEN TWIN RIVER ROAD AND BREAKNECK HILL ROAD.

    1. On closer examination, I guess not. It’s about the same. Oh well.
      These eyes are aging!

        1. Hey, you talking to me? Actually I still have pretty fine
          vision for my age. I don’t need glasses for driving, BUT
          I do need reading glasses. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. Been wearing glasses since age 10. 🙂

            My night vision for driving is slowly becoming more challenging.

  12. Massive thunder & lightning display here around 5am this morning . Hot & sunny now as I start my 3 days off which is the longest off in some time . My next stretch will be my week up Hampton Beach the end of the month. This is one of my favorite Holiday weekends. Happy 4th all .

  15. Current dps are 68-72 across the area. Pretty moist airmass.

    Let’s see how much rain can be squeezed out.

  17. The more sunshine today will further destabilize the atmosphere. Sunshine is not our friend on day like today.

  21. The forecast for the Bay Area is partly cloudy with a 40% chance of a passing anchovy shower.

    This article is interesting because it gives possible explanations for the fish washing up on shore, but ignores those falling from the sky except for a mention in the first paragraph:
    https://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-anchovies-fall-sky-wash-ashore-bay-area/story?id=86117718

    If that leaves you wondering, try this:
    https://www.kcra.com/article/anchovies-reportedly-raining-from-the-sky-san-francisco/40485037

  23. More incompetence from the National Thunderstorm Naming Center:

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…33.7N 79.0W
    ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES

    11am observation from Myrtle Beach? Pressure 1015.5 mb, wind SSE at 6 mph.

    So, the center is 5 miles away, and the pressure drops 4mb over those 5 miles, but there’s only 5 knots of wind? That’s not right. BTW, sustained winds have been below 10mph in Myrtle Beach since 8am, and they haven’t had a gust higher than 20mph since 6:30am.

    In the past 3 hours, there have been exactly ZERO reports of sustained winds in excess of 25 knots over land or water with 150 miles of the “center” of Colin, and only 3 reports of wind gusts in excess of 30 knots (all offshore, well away from the “center”). Oh, and the center still has never been over water, it’s been over land the entire time.

    1. Wait, it gets better….

      Once again – 11am position and movement:

      LOCATION…33.7N 79.0W
      ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
      PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H

      Now, the 2pm position and movement:

      LOCATION…33.6N 79.0W
      ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
      PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H

      So it has moved 0.1 degrees of latitude (about 5 miles) south of where it was 3 hours ago, but is moving toward the northeast at 7 mph. Honestly, do they not look at this stuff before putting it out there?

      2. You can’t make this stuff up…or can you? Apparently they are. So disappointing. 🙁

  29. fwiw, the latest HRRR is remarkably unimpressive for convection
    in Eastern Sections this afternoon and evening.

      1. The southern portion is indeed falling apart. But the warned area is below the pike. I’ve been hearing deep rumbling for over an hour but that has quieted down.

  38. Current line of storms doesn’t look like will make it south of the pike. And happy birthday Matt!

  39. This is good news and hopefully holds for those not fans of the heat. From NWS Boston Discussion

    From a climatological standpoint, we are fast
    approaching the highest average temps in the year. So no real big
    heat in the horizon during the hottest time of the year!

  40. First round has three huge flashes and booms on top of the other. We have .10 rain in maybe 11 minutes. Second round was lighter T&L but .20 in about the same amount of time

    Blue sky moving in to our south. North of the house is still on the darker side but not anywhere near as dark as it was

  42. It is tracking my way. No warning on that storm. The only storm report with this round of storms was with the warned storm north of me in Litchfield where a few trees came down. It was a different story at 2:30 this morning woken up by thunder and lightning along with briefly heavy rain.

  43. Raining gently here in Back Bay after a brief downpour. Still very much needed precipitation.

    1. It is needed for sure. The downpours we had don’t help a whole lot but better than nothing.

  44. If the folks doing Lowell’s planned fireworks last night had been reading this blog forecast instead of postponing their fireworks 12 hours in advance based on a weather app forecast, they’d have had a great display last night. Instead, they are now planning it for Tuesday evening …………… the rain date …………… when there is probably a much better chance of rain than there ever was there last night. Just another weather app mislead. Oops. 😉

    The only hope they have is that any rainfall that day is into and out of the region faster than it currently looks like…

    #RealInfoFromRealMeteorologists

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