Thursday July 7 2022 Forecast (7:51AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Weak high pressure slides offshore today and sets up a southeasterly air flow, aided by the development of a diurnal sea breeze anyway near the coast, so it will be a mild day but cooler readings will be found at beaches. Occasional clouds will cross the sky with some mid level moisture about. Tonight, a warm front crosses the region with clouds but no precipitation. Friday, a cold front will move across the region, but not arriving until late it will give us a chance to feel a bit more warmth and slightly more humid. Generation of showers and possible thunderstorms will be somewhat limited, so many areas may get through this without seeing any rain at all. The weekend will be spectacular, governed by Canadian high pressure, with plenty of sun both days, fairly light wind, and low humidity. We may see some clouds around early Saturday though to start the weekend off as a result of Friday’s front being a bit sluggish upon its exit. High pressure will retain control of our weather Monday with another nice day expected.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH with a few coastal gusts to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point under 60. Wind variable To S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 79-86. Dew point over 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point under 50. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 50. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

A shot of warmth and humidity followed by a shower/thunderstorm chance, then a return to mild/dry weather as the overall weather pattern remains the same.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

High pressure will be in control much of the time. Starting the period on the dry side then increasing the humidity and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later.

43 thoughts on “Thursday July 7 2022 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  5. Thanks TK
    It looks like a perfect summer weekend shaping up with plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions.

    1. Glad its working out this way.

      There’s a popular business in town, Levitate.

      It now has an annual music weekend showcase at the town’s fairgrounds and its this weekend.

      The fairgrounds are great, but its wide open, no real shade. Glad the mostly younger adult crowd will not have to be roasted in hot, humid conditions.

      1. We have been at Humarock a few times during the concert and later in summer during the fair. I sure agree with you that this weekend will be tolerable for those attending

        1. Interesting convergence area.

          Lower cumulus clouds moving SE to NW on boundary layer flow.

          Slightly higher level cumulus clouds moving NW to SE on wind direction a little higher up.

          DPs up in upper 50s. Keep checking radar to see if a light shower pops in the general Boston area.

          1. Not only is the sun not out, if anything it looks very threatening here but nothing on radar other than an elongated area of showers well south of SNE.

  11. 12z GFS suggesting a hot Tuesday.

    Bit different than past warm days. This one would have a healthy SW wind. Boston, beaches north of Boston, SE NH and SW ME beaches could be quite hot, if this 5th day projection holds.

    1. heat projection carries into Wednesday with cool front passage and cool air lagging.

      One of those where the wind turns more westerly or even west northwesterly and the still warm 850 mb temps now create a hot day Boston points south along the coastline.

      1. Well, Thursday projecting decidedly cooler, under 90F and Monday probably wouldn’t make it.

        So, very early and subject to change, probably not.

        I’d perhaps throw it out there that there’s one 90F day potential in the Tues-Wed timeframe with an outside shot that some eastern areas may get 2.

  12. I think the 2nd half of July may have a different pattern than what we have seen since the solstice.

    I love following arctic summer ice melt. I often run the hemispheric GFS pattern.

    There’s been a persistent 500 mb cold cyclone north of the north pole to the Russian coast and a persistent 500 mb warm high over eastern Alaska into the northwest territories, including the Beaufort Seas. And the Bermuda high has been displaced way, way to the east over the Azores.

    I think TK is always advising that the GFS can break patterns down too sound, so, we’ll need to consider that.

    With that said, the GFS is signaling a pattern change in the arctic and also showing trends that the Bermuda high will not be displaced so far to the east and may have more of an extension into the western Atlantic, closer to its climatic norm.

    Translated, I think there’s some opportunity for more humid conditions than we have thus far seen later this month.

    Time will tell if these future projected changes are accurate.

  15. Even though there is absolutely positively nothing on radar, there have been times today looking very dark and threatening. If this was, say, 50 years ago, I would have taken an umbrella just in case, even though Don Kent’s forecast would have no rain expected.

  17. As you often hear the meteorologists on this page mention, once again we have a great example of models over forecasting precipitation in a dry pattern. Just a few days ago a lot of the guidance was painting a very wet picture for Friday with widespread light to moderate rainfall.

    In reality, we will have a few isolated to perhaps scattered showers over a brief period of time.

    This is not the way to end a drought. In fact, today’s drought monitor shows an expansion of it and I am fairly confident that we’re going to see that expand even more during the next week.

    1. I don’t know. I can’t really forecast that specifically 2+ months in advance. But what I can tell you is that I don’t think we’ll be breaking the drought any time soon.

      Yes there will be heavy rain events. Will they be widespread? I don’t know. It’s summer, when we tend to see things in more patchy coverage. Can a tropical system or two change the game? Yes, but I can’t say with any confidence whether that will or will not happen between now and late September.

      My overall feeling for the longer term is we don’t change much of anything any time soon. I’ll continue to monitor, as always.

      1. “Everything fails in a drought.” Barry used to say it all the time. Did he originate the saying?

        1. He was the only one I remember saying it, but whether it was his originally I can not be 100% sure.

  20. Sinking Sox just can’t win against AL East. Remarkably inept against ALL teams in the division. Haven’t won a single series against any team this season. Ain’t going to happen this weekend, either, I’m afraid. I will say this in their defense, practically all their good pitchers are injured: Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Wacha, and Paxton. All on the disabled list at the same time. How is that even possible? We’re talking baseball here, not football.

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