Thursday July 14 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)

71 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

A round of showers and thunderstorms visited many areas in northern MA and southern NH overnight. We’ll remain a little bit unsettled today as we have a frontal boundary sitting over the region (Seacoast NH through eastern MA and RI) and this will get a little kick from a developing ocean breeze midday into afternoon. This means the best chance of showers and a few heavier thunderstorms developing will be in this area of convergence (in this case, air arriving from two different directions, meeting, and rising). The I-95 corridor from Seacoast NH through eastern MA to RI and southeastern CT will be most vulnerable for this activity from 1 to 6 p.m. before it dissipates. So while I would not cancel any outdoor plans in these areas today, be weather-aware. High pressure begins to move toward the region via the Great Lakes tonight and this high advances in during Friday and into Saturday with some wonderful summer weather for our region. This is great news for outdoor plans but not great news for our expanding drought, which isn’t really helped by these occasional, regional, short-lived bursts of rainfall. High pressure slides offshore by Sunday and we see a bit more heat and humidity sneak in ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system, set to bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region for Sunday night and Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring the I-95 corridor during the afternoon starting at about 1 p.m.. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of an early evening shower. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH and central MA by evening. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Briefly lower humidity and seasonably warm weather arriving during July 19 and July 20 before the humidity increases, it remains warm, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns at times during July 21-22 as a general southwesterly air flow dominates. It may dry out again by July 23.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Transition back toward higher humidity may be marked by unsettled weather sometime in the July 24-25 time frame. Typical July weather with warmth and a daily chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the period, obviously far too soon to detail.

71 thoughts on “Thursday July 14 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Heavy bursts of rain here in Back Bay overnight. Brief downpours each time, but still I’m glad there was some precipitation.

  3. Unsettled weather July 24 sounds promising… I know it’s too far out to have any degree of confidence, but I’ll keep fingers crossed….

    1. If I didn’t already know you lived in California I’d swear you lived in California. 😉

  7. Sea breeze has started. Very light at the moment at about 5 or 6 mph. Dps are in the mid 60s, so plenty of moisture. Do we get
    enough convergence to generate some showers and T-storms.
    Let us hope so. Monitoring it. Nothing yet. We need that sea breeze to ramp up some.

  8. HRRR says action in Boston Area about 3-10 PM
    You know how off that can be. 🙂

    3KM NAm about 3-6 PM and most all in extreme Eastern MA.

  9. From NWS

    Highlights…

    * Scattered showers and embedded t-storms re-develop by mid-
    afternoon with the focus towards the I-95 Corridor

    * Organized Severe Weather is not expected, but an isolated
    threat is possible in eastern MA & RI

    1. I’m not sure…
      The dew point in the Jaffrey/Keene area is only about 61, which is borderline dry.

      Now if you head south of Boston to a place like… Attleboro… The dew point is close to 70. That is where I can buy it being very humid.

    1. I see some mid level cloudiness to the West. Not too bad, but it is there. Still plenty of sunshine here.

      79 here, 73 at the airport.

  13. Sea breeze is now about 10 mph. Not sure if that is enough umph to get the job done. We shall see.

  15. Sweating bullets, as they say. My run just now was the opposite of exhilarating. It’s not severely oppressive outside. On the autocrat scale I’d rank today a Nicolas Maduro degree of oppression, not Kim Jong Un, at least not yet.

    3. I was just going to ask. Wow that blew up out of no where.
      Another one is lurking behind very near the radar site in Taunton.

      Now we have cells to the North and cells to the South, but Zippo in between. 🙂 🙂

    1. Text for that

      …Eastern MA to southeastern ME this afternoon…
      Pockets of stronger surface heating, weak low-level convergence
      along a cold front and local sea breeze boundaries could support
      widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though
      buoyancy will remain modest, somewhat enhanced midlevel flow and
      effective bulk shear in excess of 30 kt could support isolated
      strong/damaging gusts.

  20. Looking at the visible, the boundary TK mentioned in his discussion overlapping the convergence of the east and south coast seabreezes is what I think set off the storm in the Marshfield area.

    Not long after I typed about the few towering cu, sure enough, one area around that blossomed so fast.

    I drove through the initial developing shower. HUGE rain drops. Just for maybe a 1/10 to 1/4 mile on 139 west in Hanover. By the time (15 mins), we returned eastward on 139, it was torrential and had blossomed to a couple miles of coverage.

  21. I guess if there are going to be any around these parts, they will develop suddenly. Nothing cooking here yet and nothing looks suspect yet. I”l probably get skunked again, but then what else is new.

  22. Sun back out, temp jumping. Humidity is oppressive !!

    Can see Plymouth heavy shower to our SSE. Can see Brockton area storm to our west. Nice towering cumulus !!

    1. That storm pulsed up and down near Brockton very quickly. I was out doing some errands and I had one raindrop on my windshield. ONE.

  23. 12z GFS projected temps starting next Tuesday thru Saturday at Logan at 2pm:

    86F, 92F, 92F, 92F, 91F.

    Some inland locations project hotter some of those days.

    Good news, this is well beyond 3 days out and I think TK and others have advised to not read into projections too much beyond day 3.

    1. I do like the warmer pattern (less Canadian intrusion for now) but the GFS #’s are likely a little high going out there.

  26. Thanks, TK!

    There’s a warned storm just to our south in Berkley. Very dark looking towards that direction!

  27. Looks nasty on radar, hail under northwestern most part of intense cell ?

    Northern third of sky is clear blue, middle 1/3rd is cloudy with the anvil and the southern third of the sky is night-time black.

    I just hope that doesn’t build northward on its northern edge, though I feel like its done that a bit.

  28. On a regular summer day, there can be a lot of people down in Plymouth at the waterfront. Plenty of nice restaurants on the waterfront, shops and of course, sights like the Mayflower and the rock, LOL !!

    But, this cell is centered right for town center.

      1. Its been a great cloud day for tall cumulus, with quick changing conditions. And, if under some of these showers, briefly quite dark !

        1. I’m watching the cell on Ch 5’s radar and between 5:15 and 5:20, the northern side of the cell built a good 5 miles to the north, even though the whole cell is generally sliding east-northeast.

          Think we might get something out of this, will be close.

      1. It sure did and the northern split part went right overhead.

        That dropped a lot of water !!

        Easing now with the sun shining. 🙂

        1. Kind of neat seeing the outflow boundary behind the storm trying to work with/against the sea-breeze boundary.

  30. It seems the show is all down your way today, Tom!

    There is a tiny cell around Mansfield, CT

    1. Yes, saw a tweet to Eric Fisher from Marshfield and nearby Halifax of some small hail. I didn’t see any here.

  32. Besides the brief bursts of heavy rain overnight, we’ve had nada today. Grass is brown. It’s looking increasingly drought-like.

    On the radio I heard an advertisement in which the roofing company offered free roofs and installation (I think) if you purchase one between now and August 14th AND it gets to 100F at Logan Airport (very specific; no doubt a strategic move) on Labor Day. I’d say the chance of that is very slim.

    Another thing I saw reported on today was the age of a Greenland shark. It can live up to 400 years! Many get to be at least 300. They don’t enter their reproductive years until they turn 150. Just amazing. https://twitter.com/NatGeo/status/1547640059318325250
    https://twitter.com/NatGeo/status/1547640059318325250

    1. I wouldn’t count out a 100F at Logan on Labor Day. I have been wondering if there could be back end “heat” much like back end snow (March or April) during some winters. I have no idea if that type of summer phenomenon exists around here though.

      As for the free roof, I could certainly use a new one but with my luck, Logan would fall just short at 99.9F 😉

      Unfortunately I can’t afford a new roof to chance it right now. Betting on weather, especially long range, is risky at best.

  33. Good lord the Red Sox are awful in this series against a less talented, but MUCH more motivated team (Rays). More importantly, the Red Sox just can’t beat anyone in the AL East. After tonight’s loss they’ll be 11 and 24 (welp) against AL East opponents. They still have to play a TON of games against teams in the AL East. None are easy. It’s not looking good right now at all.

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