Friday July 15 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)

41 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

High pressure brings great summer weather to the region through Saturday with a fair amount of sun both today and Saturday, manageable humidity, and seasonably warm air. The high slides offshore and the humidity increases on Sunday, as do the clouds and eventually the threat of a shower or thunderstorm, but most of that day looks rain-free so keep your outdoor plans and just be ready to react to any showers or storms that might occur. The trough responsible for the shower and storm threat later Sunday will be moving across the region Monday, making that an unsettled, muggy, warm day with showers and thunderstorms a little more likely, but this system should exit Tuesday with a return to dry but still warm weather, along with somewhat lower humidity.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising into and through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling through 60s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Very warm to hot and more humid July 20-22. Shower and thunderstorm opportunities greatest July 21-22 with a southwesterly air flow dominating the region. High pressure from Canada via the Great Lakes brings warm but less humid weather to the region later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Unsettled weather episodes should be brief around the time of air mass changes, which will not be dramatic, as the overall pattern will be controlled by high pressure and a westerly to southwesterly air flow with mostly rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

41 thoughts on “Friday July 15 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)”

      1. Barely, LOL !

        The 2nd storm had more lightning, so that one was a bit more nerve-wracking for me. One lightning/thunder was 4 seconds apart and pretty loud.

        Looks like Marshfield airport recorded .62 inches total, .21 for noon-time storm and .41 for late afternoon storm.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Finally widespread soaking rains on Monday?

    First heatwave of the season next week?

      1. Definitely not a classic setup.

        The high center is not even close to Bermuda High location. It will be centered in the Tennessee Valley area. Our warmth will be coming more from the Midwest but will be tempered by the fact that we will actually be slightly in the mean trough position.

    2. A little qualification for “first ever”.
      First since the system was developed and introduced in 2004. Anytime we use the term ‘ever’ we need to give time context.. similar to when we talk about records in Boston and need to refer them going back to 1872 or when the location changed to the airport. Another example, and we’ll go way down to the South Pole for this one. The two coldest years on record at Amundsen are 2004 and 2021, but the record goes back only 60 years there.

  12. The UK heat is historic. This is not a hyperbolic statement. It’s an intense heat dome that’s as searingly hot as it is expansive. Portugal recorded an all-time record high of 47.5C. Major wild fires throughout France.

    While it’s very hard to precisely pinpoint how much influence mankind has on the climate, we’ve known of the greenhouse effect for a very long time. It’s prudent to not only care about climate change, but to do something about it. Pursue alternate energy sources. Reduce or at least streamline energy consumption. I’m afraid myopia has set in, and legislators are sitting on their hands.

    1. Reminds me a little bit of the 1988 heat dome in the US.

      This is the product of a stable pattern – a pattern that doesn’t change very much over a lengthy period of time. In this particular case the heat happened to set up in an area that we don’t see it very often.

      1. Ha! As usual I read in the wrong direction and didn’t see your comment till I posted 🙂

        1. That’s quite fine. I posted something that didn’t show up until I refreshed my screen 3 times. HAHA

    2. I agree. Without question what we do impacts every area of our world, including climate. Philips comment had me thinking. I keep hearing that we are a having cooler than normal summer in New England. But we are a very small part of the world. The prior seven years have been the hottest recorded. The warmest years on record have occurred since 2005

      143 year Records 2022

      June tie for 6th hottest on record
      May 9th hottest on record
      April tie for 5th hottest on record
      March 5th hottest on record
      February 7th hottest on record
      January 6th hottest on record

      1988 was the hottest global period we’d had. And it has only gotten hotter.

    3. Very worried about my relatives in the UK. They don’t have air conditioning in most places there.

  13. After temperatures have averaged below normal during the past 30 days across the entire region, it’s time for some near to above normal temps for a little while.

    What changes in this pattern?
    A little less power from Canadian cold fronts – which is normal for this time of year.

    What doesn’t change in this pattern?
    We will continue to lack sustained heat, even with a warmer regime. This is NOT the set-up for a stretch of really hot/humid weather, though we’ll have our hotter days, sometimes muggy, sometimes not. Also, normal for this time of year. In short, nothing unusual. The only negative is that we still are not likely to be in a pattern that provides building drought relief any time soon. The good news is that the lack of heat in the past 30 days has slowed what could have been a much more rapid progression.

    I saw a report from a news agency today including New England in a flash drought brought on by intense heat. Well, for one thing, our drought is not a flash drought. Its onset has been rather slow in fact, quite the opposite. Record heat? Sure.

    Have a great weekend!

  14. Staying with 1988 …. I sure recall that year but have never seen it in this context

    Wapo…”In the middle of a historically sweltering summer, a NASA researcher stood before Congress and declared the unvarnished, undeniable scientific truth: “The greenhouse effect has been detected,” James Hansen said. “And it is changing our climate now.”

    The year was 1988. Global temperatures were about 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. It was, at the time, the hottest 12-month period scientists had ever seen.
    None of us will ever experience a year that cool again.”

    Vicki adding….and we have not

    2. I didn’t see any of them really hint at a heatwave.
      They hinted at warm too hot weather.

      But while I’m on the subject, specifically Pete B cautioned about Monday’s rainfall. He is skeptical about the amount of rain and the coverage we are going to end up with despite what the guidance says. I 100% agree with him. We have seen this too many times…

  17. Up to this point summer has been beautiful. Not much precipitation to cancel plans, and overall not much real heat and humidity. No heat waves to date.

  18. Well, the 00z NAM “soaks” the entire WHW forecast area with under 0.25 inch of rain for Monday. 😉

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