Saturday July 16 2022 Forecast (8:34AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

This weekend will give us not only very nice summer weather (not perfect) but also another lesson on the limitations of even our shorter-range guidance. As recently as yesterday, forecasts both here and around media called for a mostly sunny sky today, and while the sun will shine often today, it will also be filtered and dimmed quite often by a large shield of high cloudiness crossing our sky, born of convective activity in the Midwest. Also, some lower level moisture helped a bank of broken lower clouds form near the South Coast, which will dissipate as the morning goes on. But also, we have a little previously-not-really-detected-by-guidance disturbance that has to cross the region during the day today, and you’ll see evidence of that by cumulus clouds building up this morning into part of the afternoon underneath the high cloud shield. One or two of these clouds may grow large enough to release isolated showers. I would certainly not cancel any outdoor plans over this minor threat, but I would keep an eye on the sky just in case. That disturbance is gone later today and yet another one crosses the region tonight, keep the sky more cloud-filled than clear, and once again a spot shower can’t be ruled out, but it’s unlikely that any specific location will see one. The other change to the short term forecast is the ability to remove the shower and thunderstorm threat from the daytime and evening hours of Sunday – a day which will feature brighter sun than today, though still some clouds popping up to blot it out at times as well. Today’s humidity levels will be low enough to be deemed comfortable, but tomorrow’s dew point heads into higher territory, which will be noticeable. However, the more significant spike in humidity comes during Monday, especially in the afternoon, when a warm front crosses the region, preceded by a round of showers. Then a cold front approaches later in the day into the evening when a round of showers and thunderstorms is most likely. Advertisements of a widespread soaking rainfall with that system are probably over-selling the system’s capability to produce that. Now keeping in mind that even the short range guidance can struggle with these details, the tendency for quite some time now has been for the guidance to over-forecast the precipitation a few days out only to come back to reality as we get closer. That trend seems to be underway now, and while some heavy rainfall is certainly a strong possibility in the form of downpours / t-storms, a widespread beneficial rainfall would be one that would occur at a slower rate over a longer time, and I don’t see that as likely with that particular system. Behind it, we stay warm for Tuesday with a lowering of humidity and the return of fair weather after the chance of an early-in-the-day shower. A weak area of high pressure to the south of the region will provide fair weather into Wednesday as well, but since behind Monday’s system we’re not getting a shot of cooler/dry Canadian air that takes longer to kick out and modify, we’ll already be very warm to hot with more humid conditions again by midweek. At day 5, I can’t be confident of calling for a pop up air mass shower or thunderstorm Wednesday, but I won’t rule it out.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Very slight chance of a passing shower midday to mid afternoon, favoring central and northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising to middle to upper 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely midday through mid afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms likely late afternoon or evening from west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s rising to lower 70s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Warm to hot weather July 21-22 with highest humidity and greatest chance of thunderstorms July 21 as a disturbance passes just to the north and drags a frontal boundary across the region, then a reduced storm chance July 22. Weak high pressure should keep shower and storm chances limited while we are warm to hot and have moderate humidity for the July 23-24 weekend and higher humidity again to end the period. This is not the classic Bermuda High set-up though as high pressure in the western Atlantic is to be weaker than one sitting over the east central US sending the hotter weather our way from the west southwest. We’ll actually find ourselves in a mean trough position here, albeit weak, so we end up with the warmth and see Canadian air masses unable to enter the region for a while.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Unsettled weather episodes should be brief around the time of air mass changes, which will not be dramatic, as the overall pattern will be controlled by high pressure and a westerly to southwesterly air flow with mostly rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures. We may get a push of drier air from Canada before the end of the period.

54 thoughts on “Saturday July 16 2022 Forecast (8:34AM)”

  4. Our friends at the South Pole (Amundsen) report a temperature of -97° F and a wind chill of -139° F. Great beach day (or “night” I guess). 😉

    1. Thanks, TK. I was reading about this and has saved to post here today. They set records for extreme cold last year also. Comments on the article were interesting. Amazing how some think it negates global warming.

      1. Another example of people using one thing for an argument for or against.

        Big picture. Trends. Greater extremes.
        A warmer globe will result in colder areas as well as warmer ones.

  5. Thanks TK !

    I thought it was “chilly” last night in the mt Washington valley area, but I guess not (-97F). Still, it felt nice on the campground.

    I wouldn’t mind a heavy shower while we are here as we are along the presidential range and there are multiple dry stream beds in the campground that I’d like to see after a heavy rain.

  6. Thanks TK.

    JR mentioned one day on air that August could be our opportunity to break the drought once the tropics get active and send moisture up here. As long as we don’t get a direct hit that would be welcome news.

    But will the tropics become active enough eventually?

    1. Well, that’s really just a statement driven solely be the fact that August is a month we often combining the ability to move tropical moisture northward at the same time the tropics are most active, but that’s climatology. I can say that any time we are in a drought in the summer and it’s “true” in a speculative sense. We’ll still need the weather pattern to actually cooperate though. Will it? No idea yet.

  8. I am hoping that reading at the Amundsen station at the South Pole is “automated”. Please tell me that there are no actual humans (scientists) there right now. It can’t be all that great for the native Emperor penguins either.

    Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!! 😉

  9. Thanks Tk . Im hoping for a hot & dry week as I head to the beach next Friday for the week .

        1. Oh yes…

          He’s been mentioning a lot of the things I point out to help people better interpret the info. This is what we need.

          1. It is indeed. And he does it in a positive and often amusing way. Eric is great at educating also.

            1. Wow! Pete sure told him off! Was that an “act” for entertainment/educational
              purposes? 🙂

                2. I’ve watched it over and over. Who is the other guy? I don’t watch NBC 10 very often for news or even entertainment other than Sunday night Patriots games.

                  I will assume it’s to make a point. I get it. 🙂

  11. Channel 5’s 10 day forecast has 6 straight days at 90 or higher starting Tuesday. Does this seem a bit overdone given model bias and long term forecast? Thanks.

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Was out fishing this morning, Not much shaking. Water very low.
    Saw a nice sized snapping turtle in Charles in Needham and while I fished at the Stop River in Medfield, a bull frog sat at my feet and kept me company. 5 measly sunfish was the morning tally.
    No bass today. 🙂

      1. It was nice out, but I came home early.

        I couldn’t believe the frog. Usually they take of when
        humans approach. Not this one. He just sat there and watched. It was a weird feeling. 🙂

    1. All of a sudden? How?
      It’s exactly as forecast: filtered sun, warm air, low to moderate humidity (depending on location), and a nice breeze – a very nice day.

      There are thicker clouds across south central CT onto parts of Long Island from some showers and thunderstorms that have developed there in response to a combination of a sea breeze boundary and that disturbance I mentioned in today’s discussion that would add to our cloudiness, but that’s it. Gorgeous summer day in progress.

      1. I wasn’t really complaining, just something to post more than anything. It’s a bit uncomfortable but at least it’s not overly hot. Yes, forecast is on target. 🙂

        1. Got it! Try to enjoy the rest of the day / evening. 🙂

          It’s a little cloudier here now, but to be perfectly honest, clear to overcast – I’ll take whatever happens. But you know me……………. 🙂

    1. Thanks Joshua. Cool! 😉

      I wouldn’t want to be called to HR or Admin and told to “clean out my desk”…especially in winter. 😉

      😀

    1. HAHAHA…. Well, since they count hail in the “snow” column, somebody could get a trace. 😉

  17. Interesting temperature map globally. TK alluded to this the other day. The intense and expanding heat dome – record highs across parts of Europe – stands in sharp contrast to parts of Siberia and even further west into much of Russia (and Ukraine, by the way). In many parts of Russia temperatures have been below normal for quite some time. Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s cold. It just means cool for the time of year.

  18. According to JR, today is the exact midpoint of summer. I had no idea that every year it falls on 7/16. I’ll have to remember that date.

    I do wonder though if the second half will be “wetter” (relatively speaking) and with more “HHH” days (again, relatively speaking)?

    While on the subject of midpoints, for winter is it 2/10 or thereabouts?

  19. I’ve been out for several hours listening to a book, eating dinner and just enjoying this spectacular summer evening. With all going on around us, there is so much peace in nature

    2. You can see a rainbow for quite a distance if the origin is in higher clouds that are producing rain. That was the case here as there was a couple isolated downpours passing to the south in the time just before this. By the time the clouds were in the southeastern part of the sky, opposite the high-angle sunset, the rainbow was able to be produced and seen for quite a distance away from the source of the rainfall. In this case it being close to sunset, the sun’s rays are able to reach a point higher in the clouds, and you get a “taller” rainbow, which is also going to be visible further away. 🙂

      This is a good example of “it doesn’t need to be raining to see a rainbow” which much be qualified to “It doesn’t have to be raining where I am to be able to see a rainbow, so long as I can see the rainbow that is being produced by rain in my line of sight.” It’s a bit more complex sounding, but it makes perfect sense after you apply the physics that create this optical phenomenon. 🙂

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