Sunday July 17 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

The big picture: Only 2 unsettled days out of the next 5 (maybe more), and introducing more heat into the mix means the drought likely expands more quickly in the days ahead, even with a couple threats of heavy downpours. The day-to-day picture: Today will generally be a great summer day, although patchy clouds are in some areas early and mostly-fair-weather clouds will pop up during the day, but we won’t have that sun-filtering high cloud shield today. Humidity will be on the rise, but not rapidly, although those sensitive will notice it. Like yesterday, there is the tiniest chance regionwide of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm from a couple of the developing cumulus clouds today, but in general this is a fair weather day for our region, extending through tonight as well. Monday is the first of the two aforementioned unsettled days, as a low pressure disturbance will be moving eastward across the Northeast. We first see a round of showers with a warm front during midday and part of the afternoon, followed by a batch of showers and thunderstorms with the system’s cold front in the evening. Initially, some of our guidance painted this as a widespread moderate to heavy rain event lasting many hours, but as you have been cautioned, this is often the type of system that is over-forecast by guidance, and when it gets here, it ends up being a shorter-duration rain event, as you see in this case, with just a couple rounds of showers and storms, but the threat of some downpours with heavy rainfall. But “heavy rain” does not really mean beneficial rain, and in this case any drought relief brought by this system will be quite limited. It’s short-duration, and will be followed by two dry and rather warm to hot days Tuesday and Wednesday. Unlike many previous events, we don’t get a push of cooler/dry air from Canada behind the disturbance, but our air will come from a hotter source region in the middle of the US, so we’ll feel the heat of July coming on into the region. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s weather is expected to be rain-free regionwide. Thursday, our heat stays with us and humidity spikes back up ahead of a cold front, which brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms again. The coverage, intensity, and timing of this activity is yet to be determined, and will depend on specifics which I can nail down over the next few days.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny early, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers likely midday through mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Muggy – dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s.Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W, but winds can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 84-91. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Less humid, rain-free but still very warm to hot weather July 22-23 as high pressure dominates. Shower and thunderstorm threat increases July 24 to early July 25 as a trough and frontal system move across the region before slightly drier but still very warm weather dominates the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

July should come down its home stretch in a pattern that transitions from warm to hot and humid with a shower and thunderstorm threat early in the period to drier but warm weather with high pressure dominating later in the period.

40 thoughts on “Sunday July 17 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  1. Vicki, please see my answer to the rainbow question on the previous blog in case you happened to miss it. 🙂

    2. Great explanation and thank you North also. That was taken in Uxbridge I think. I’ll send your explanation to Kim.

    1. Thanks JJ. Here is part of the NWS discussion:

      Heat and humidity continuing to increase. Shot for strong/severe
      storms on Thursday as an EML pushes in with mid level lapse rates
      around 6-7 degrees Celsius per km. Low level lapse rates around 6-
      8.5 degrees Celsius. Will see MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg
      with deep layer shear in the 30-45 kt range out ahead of the
      incoming cold front. Still a bit early to dive too deeply into the
      exact hazards especially given the models have some timing
      differences, but think there could be a severe risk here especially
      given the latest CIPS Severe Analogs and the CSU Machine Learning
      Probabilities. Stay tuned to future updates.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Dew points are already DISGUSTING!

    66 at logan, Bedford and Norwood, 70 at P-town, 70 at Pawtucket and 68 at Taunton.

    I can only imagine what tomorrow brings! YUUUUUUUCCCCCKKKKK!!!!!!

  4. The timing of the front is key for Thursday but certainly at this point and it will change as we know there are some favorable parameters. To me when you have an elevated mixed layer (EML) in place we tend to get higher end severe weather events especially if the front comes through during the peak heating time.

    1. My oldest repeatedly says if we are having weather, it will be Monday or Thursday Those are the says she drives to Millis to teach This was fairly accurate last winter.

      Driving isn’t always the hard part. Horses tend to react to weather.

  7. Thanks TK.

    I believe the record for most consecutive days of 90+ for Boston is 9 set one summer in the 1900’s (not sure which year specifically).

    1912? 1914?

    H-E-A-T-W-A-V-E ahead! 🙁

    2. Philip, did you see explanation for Pete’s video yesterday. Both men were Pete. It took me a rewatch to figure it out

    3. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90
      for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)

      1 9 1912-07-11
      2 8 2002-08-18
      – 8 1994-07-26
      – 8 1944-08-17
      – 8 1872-07-05

  8. There is some limited convection out there now.
    My chances of any rain is about ZILCH as far as I am concerned, but the lawn needs a drink.

  10. Quite a rip roaring sea breeze out there. Logan ESE at 16 mph
    with 82 degrees.

    Here in JP it is 88. 88 at Norwood and 90 at Bedford.
    Heating up out there.

    Sea breeze perhaps could aid in any convection?

  11. cumulus in my area very benign at the moment. We shall see if anything happens. I doubt it, but here’s hoping.

    1. I have a great view to the NW now from Woods Hill and I can see the rain shaft from that cell from here.

    1. I wish he would just go away. He is no good for the clubhouse anyway. I wouldn’t want him on my team.

  15. Manchester to Auburn appear to have an even bigger cell over them. The weekend of the pop ups/isolated cells 😉

  17. I was surprised most of SNE was included in the marginal risk. It seemed the threat area was western parts of SNE. I agree with this one.

  18. Been getting pounded here in Sharon past 1/2 hour. Very localized stationary cell. My lawn and garden thanks you!

  21. Thank you, TK.

    Was in Northern Connecticut today: Stafford Springs. What a nice area, with rolling hills, farms, woods, New England churches, interesting/quirky little towns.

  22. Stafford Springs also has the motor speedway. The Northwest Hills of CT are similar Joshua to what you described.

    1. Yes, indeed. I drove around from town to town. I was struck at the elevation in some of the towns, including Stafford Springs (1075 feet at one point; similar to Becket, Mass.). Must be pretty snowy there, compared, to, say, New London, CT.

      1. I love that area of CT. You may recall I spent years in Suffield with a dear friend (we might have been engaged for a while) as well as around that area fishing. Bucolic is a word that comes to mind.

        JJ, I’m sure you are aware but not sure If you are Joshua. That is a huge tobacco area. The Troy Donahue and Connie Stevens film Parrish was Filmed on some of the tobacco farms.

  23. New London CT is not the spot of CT you want to be in if you are a snow lover. You need the perfect track to get an all snow event. That is not the case in Stafford Springs or any of the other towns in the northeast and northwest hills.

Comments are closed.