Monday July 18 2022 Forecast (7:14AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

We sit about half way through meteorological summer, but are only about 1/3 of the way into “actual summer”, so either way you look at it, we have a lot of summer ahead of us. Up to this point, hot weather has been largely absent. The period from mid June to mid July ran slightly below normal in temperature, and our rainfall deficit continues with a building drought. During this week, we’ll see more heat than we’ve seen so far, and while we have a couple unsettled days in the forecast, we won’t be seeing any drought-busting rainfall. In fact, I full expect the drought to continue to build with the limited rainfall chances and the increase in the heat. We start today with a low pressure area approaching the region, the center of which will pass to our north tonight. This system will push a warm front across the area during this afternoon with a round of showers (most widespread to the northwest of the WHW forecast area though), and the cold front coming along tonight will produce a round or two of showers and possible thunderstorms. We’ll have a spike of high humidity while we’re in the warm sector of this system, but it will really only be with us for a few hours. Drier air settles in behind the cold front Tuesday, but “cold front” is relative, as the air mass behind this system is actually warmer than the one ahead of it, so it’ll be quite a warm day, but with fair weather dominating as high pressure approaches the region. Many times over the last several weeks when a system like this would go by, we’d get a push of cooler air from Canada. The pattern this week is not going to be like that, and our air will be coming from a hotter source region. High pressure will continue to control the weather Wednesday with very warm to hot conditions but only moderate humidity, and no threat of rain. The high will push offshore early Thursday when a warm front quietly goes through the region, and that will be the day we combine heat with higher humidity, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening as it approaches and passes by the region. As for coverage and intensity of those, we’ll have to keep an eye on it and detail it as it gets closer. Behind this system, the very warm weather remains but the humidity drops off for Friday, with fair weather expected.

TODAY: Clouding over this morning. Cloudy with a round of rain and possible embedded heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms first half of afternoon. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible second half of afternoon / early evening. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through late evening and early overnight with showers and thunderstorms including areas of fog. Greatest chance of thunderstorms in central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Any storms could be locally strong to severe. Breaking clouds / clearing west to east toward dawn. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 70 evening, falling toward 60 overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts above 20 MPH and up to 30 MPH in some portions of the South Coast as well as near any storms, shifting to W from west to east overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 64-71. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

A fairly typical summer pattern will dominate our weather during this time. We will see a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, favoring later July 24 to early July 25 and sometime later in the period too. It’s difficult to time such opportunities this far in advance so the usual fine-tuning will take place. Expect the temperature to average near to above normal. Higher humidity at times, but not likely for the entire period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A similar pattern overall, but may see a little more dry air push from Canada at some point.

62 thoughts on “Monday July 18 2022 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Spc has our area in marginal severe risk for today with 2% chance of tornado.

    Also has us in 15% chance for severe weather on Thursday.

  5. Whoever the news director is at WBZ radio needs to come up with some type of guidelines that doesn’t allow the anchor to elaborate on the weather forecast. If I didn’t know any better and was just a casual listener who depended on the voice on the radio for telling me the weather I would be in my basement right now.

    “We will have a round of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and some of these storms will have rotation so we will have to be on the lookout for tornadoes.”.

    That is a direct quote and should never have made the airwaves at 8:00 a.m. by a non meteorologist. I am going to write to the station again although my last two attempts were met with silence.

    2. Station bigwigs don’t answer emails anymore. They don’t even pass them on to a lower level employee who could probably respond.

      As for that anchor’s statement, most listeners I suspect totally ignored it anyway.

    3. I agree. My guess is they consider it a way to keep people listening until weather.

      I am thorough enjoying just reading individual Mets on twitter. I’m so sick of corporate America

      1. Ditto.

        I just keep thinking about Sci Fi movies I have seen depicting corporations controlling the whole world. If we are not there yet, we are certainly very close. Sad, but true.

  14. Lightning galore all over far SW CR and SE NY state. Heading this way. Right. sure. We shall see what ends up here.
    My grass could use a drink for sure!

  15. Hey ACE, how much rain did you end up with yesterday?
    Looks like you were experiencing rain for the better part
    of 3 hours and plenty of it. 🙂

  19. Death toll in Spain and Portugal rises to 1,027 from the current heat wave. Recorded deaths are also rapidly increasing across Northern Europe. It won’t be as bad as 2003 (particularly in France), but it’s still a major concern. As is always the case, it’s the vulnerable (mostly, elderly) who are impacted worst.

  24. I am down in Virginia on vacation and looks like I might be missing some thunderstorm action possibly both today and Thursday

  27. Greens and yellows have been over my area for hours, yet all we have to show for it were a few drops of rain here and there.
    Streets isn’t even wet. 🙂

    batch of heavier rain heading this way. We shall see if it materializes or not.

  28. A drop or two of rain has fallen out of the sky in Back Bay. That’s it. The air is thick (of the hard to breathe deeply kind) and really muggy. I rank today a 1 on a scale from 0 (worst) to 10 (best).

    1. I listened to Pete….nothing he said was inaccurate. The headline uses the word could and it could. I’d say first alert is what we all know is the networks attempt to be first. Out of control of the Mets.

      I don’t see anything that bothers me. But you knew I wouldn’t 😉

    2. Eric F did mention a small chance of rotation tonight in a severe storm. So not completely off the books.

  31. Following grey me NWS while up here in NH.

    Interesting cell in SW Maine right now.

    We’ve had 3 hours of moderate to heavy rain. The mountain rivers should have some increased flow tomorrow.

    1. Sorry. Didn’t see your post. Was typing.

      I emailed my brothers sister in law and am tempted to call my brother. But they are in bow and it may fall apart and there are some health concerns there so waking them is not a good idea

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