Tuesday July 19 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

The first, and so far only, stretch of hot weather this summer begins today as high pressure takes up residence to our south and pumps Midwestern heat into our region. While this is not a classic upper air set-up we see for a lot of our hot episodes, the central US has been hot for quite a while and the source region of our incoming air during this time will be more than adequate for a supply. The pattern having a southwesterly air flow and keeping us slightly in a mean trough position also means that we’ll be able to mix the atmosphere up more, which includes transporting drying air via the downsloping effect from the mountains to our west, keeping dew points from reaching what they may have if we were in a Bermuda High set-up. That doesn’t mean we won’t have our episodes of higher humidity. It just won’t persist. So it will be hotter today and definitely hot Wednesday and Thursday, with highest humidity of the 3 days being Thursday, just ahead of a cold front. This front brings the only shot of showers and thunderstorms for the WHW forecast area during this 5 day period, as slightly drier air follows that and the chance of any convective activity vanishes late this week (Friday-Saturday).

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

A fairly typical summer pattern will dominate our weather during this time. We will see a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, favoring later July 24 to early July 25 and sometime later in the period too. Temperatures above normal. Highest humidity July 24 and later in the period, lower humidity episode between.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A similar pattern overall with mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall opportunities.

74 thoughts on “Tuesday July 19 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank TK.

    Do you agree with the SPC about possible severe weather Thursday?

    Thanks

  3. Thanks, TK.

    We’ve been blessed so far this summer with limited heat. But, this week will be different. The human body doesn’t respond well to heat and humidity. We’re not built for it. It poses special risks for people with chronic diseases, from migraine and rosacea, to lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

  4. Looks like the news anchor on WBZ is going to be on a roll this week…

    “Typically our heat waves in Boston last 3 days.”
    They do? No, that is the minimum number of days you need for a heatwave.

    “We are talking about the kind of heat that has been plaguing much of the middle of the country all summer.”
    Actually, no we’re not. High temperatures in the upper ’80s to middle ’90s with dew points mostly under 70 with a couple of spikes around 70. This is definitely not anything above and beyond a typical stretch of hot weather.
    “Our ongoing coverage of this heat wave continues after this…”
    Just how much coverage does a heatwave that hasn’t occurred yet need?

    Well, at least the readers of WHW are correctly informed. 😉

  5. At least 6 consecutive days of this upcoming heatwave is expected. The record for Boston is 9 days (1912).

    1. At least 6? You sure? NWS only has 5, and some of the various models have Boston failing to reach 90. Across the interior, sure there’s a decent chance (where the record is a lot more than 9), but Boston? Far from a lock.

      1. All of the tv mets have 6 days on their outlooks. I counted. Whether it eventually verifies, who knows?

  6. 104F recorded at Heathrow in London today. Shattered previous records, as have temperatures across the UK and many places in Western Europe. Here, the word “shatter” isn’t hyperbole. This is an extraordinary weather event.

  7. dp 66 at Logan and 68 at Bedford.
    Although the dps are down a little, I wouldn’t exactly call this refreshing air. Clearly better than yesterday and for that I am grateful. Wish it were drier though. 🙂

    1. That dp at Logan is 9 degrees lower than yesterday afternoon (75) believe it or not. No, I wouldn’t call it “refreshing” either but I guess it’s all relative.

      1. Yes, as I said, it is CLEARLY better than yesterday, but not at “Refreshing” levels. As I sit here at the computer next to an open window, I can FEEL the STICKINESS in the air.

          1. It will be a cold day in July before I use word refreshing again. Simply meant there was lower dew point and nice breeze here which certainly trumped last night’s muggies. Realize it is a hot and sticky stretch.

    1. Because generally speaking it doesn’t get that hot that often, so why bother with the expense. Spain is a different story as it is always hot in Spain in the summer, most especially inland locations like Madrid. 🙂 I’d wager there are many more households in Spain with AC.

      1. Thanks JPD. I had no idea that you have such understanding of European climate. I have enough trouble understanding ours. 🙂

      2. Although summers are very hot in Spain, only 33% of Spanish homes have air conditioning, according to a study published by idealista, a leading real estate marketplace in Spain. Naturally, a higher percentage of homes have air conditioning in the warmest regions. In the city of Seville 70% of houses have AC

      3. There is little data on how many homes in England have air-conditioning units installed, but the best estimates place it at under 5 percent of homes, according to a 2021 report from Britain’s Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy

    2. Missed this. Was reading down.

      In Rome, Mac’s parents home and many others had high ceilings and weather shutters that they kept close on the sunny side of the house. There was also a lot of marble. It worked well.

        1. It’s a good thing that we beat the British in 1776. Otherwise we would have degrees C temperatures and driving on the wrong side of the road, legally. 😉

          A nice 40.2F dp would feel mighty good about now. 🙂

    1. That is some serious heat. I’m also surprise that both the elevation and wind gust are NaN (Not a Number)!

      1. That is a function of the service providing the weather info.
        In this case, OpenWeatherMaps.

        Also, this APP is old as I haven’t touched it in years, so if reporting was change since I last worked on it, then the app
        would not get it. Sorry about that as I was just trying to show
        graphically what the weather was like in London at that time.

  13. As JPD mentioned, AC is generally not needed in Northern Europe. I’d say the 5% figure for England households matches that of the Netherlands.

    In the South of Europe it is a different story, although as Vicki mentioned they have alternate ways of beating the heat (shutters, marble floors).

    One thing to keep in mind, AC is not something Europeans – and especially South Americans – like nearly as much as we do. While AC certainly helps during heatwaves – removing humidity is a big part of it – the refrigeration effect isn’t necessarily pleasant, especially if you’re not used to it. I don’t like AC, either, when it’s at refrigeration level. Wearing a sweater or sweatshirt in my office at Tufts University in the middle of a July heatwave was always a ridiculous sight. Plus, not good for energy waste, the environment, and that awful feeling of being hit by a brick wall of heat when I left the building.

    2. Joshua, well said. I like windows open. And oddly, the only time it is uncomfortable for me is summer. I always have a couple of windows open in winter. From the time I was quite young, I opened a bedroom window every morning to air out the room. As I opened the window this morning, all I could think was all it did was let yucky air in.

      Back in the day, we did have solutions to no AC which I’ve mentioned here before. Cross ventilation was a selling point for a home. New houses barely even have windows on the sides. Having grown up in various counties outside of the US, it made Mac laugh.

      1. One of the things mets will do in the Netherlands and other parts of Europe, too, is remind people to always ventilate their homes, also during cold snaps in winter. It’s considered a health thing.

        1. What a smart suggestion. It sure is a healthy thing. I learned from my mom so wonder if back in the early days with so many debilitating diseases it was common. My guess is Mac learned from his and possibly from living in the areas you mentioned.

    1. Did you have any weather last night or are you home from vacation? I can’t recall if I mentioned that my niece is up there also. She hiked Washington.

  16. From NWS regarding Thursday

    It
    does look like Thursday should feature the best chance for organized
    convection across at least a portion of the region as a mid-level
    trough moves east from the Great Lakes with signals of a remnant
    EML. The building heat and humidity will ensure a decent amount of
    MLCAPE and dew points for storms to feed off on. A cold front
    (really more a dew point front this time of the year) will provide
    large scale and the decent mid-level lapse rates along with 30-40 kt
    shear should increase the risk of a few strong to severe storms. The
    question here would be the location of the trough axis and initial
    signs are that the wave could be deamplifying as it approaches our
    area. CIPS analog and the CSU machine learning algorithm further
    suggests Thursday is a day worth monitoring, especially if you have
    outdoor plans that day.

  17. This media quote made me spit out my root beer when I heard it…

    “I just checked the thermometer and it’s 89°. We’re into the 90s already!”

    Ummm, last time I checked, 89° would be grouped in the 80s.

    Is there anything left that is not hyped? 😉

      1. Let me guess. Another WBZ radio anchor? 😉

        Y-U-C-K! To each his/her own but I NEVER liked root beer, btw. 🙂

          1. And I also hated “Moxie” which was similar taste to root beer iirc. My mother and grandmother loved it though. I know it was a New England “favorite” soft drink but… 😉

  18. I love root beer and birch beer. But, yes, as Philip says, tastes differ.

    I’m about to brave the elements. Not looking forward to it, but we’ve certainly had hotter and more humid days.

    It’s warmer in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, than it is in Boston. My ex-wife calls it “snikheet,” which is a Dutch word that literally means “crying hot.”

    By the way, one of the first Dutch words I learned in the Netherlands was “verluchten” which means air things out or ventilate. Dutch weather guys were always telling people to open up the windows and ventilate. We did so in school all the time, even when it was cold outside. My host families reprimanded me when I didn’t open my bedroom windows every day – cold, warm, and in between.

    1. When I was growing up, windows remained shut during cold stretches. Even during brief bouts of warmth in the winter they remained shut. Amazing how Europeans live so differently compared to Americans in various ways.

      Thanks again Joshua.

    2. Birch beer is a favorite but there was one brand I really liked and can’t recall the brand. Love root beer floats, Dr Pepper and moxie. My grandkids love moxie too.

      All that said. I rarely drink soda

    1. I wish this weather for next week up Hampton , we arrive this Friday for the week

    3. Good Plan to use quotes on possible. Eric used the word should have n case you no used my tweet from him below

  20. TK – do you think the heat forecasted for the next week is overdone? Also any thoughts on Thursday’s chance for storms? Thanks.

  23. So Logan may have enough of a sea breeze to prevent 90 today. Unless of course it gets the 5 or 6pm wind shift and warm surge. We shall see. Also could possibly make 90 before sea breeze. Will have to watch and see.

    2. They can get thwarted today, but I don’t think they will.
      They can get thwarted tomorrow, and again Sunday.
      So there are at least a few potential days to miss 90 for Logan.

      As for the rest of this region, hot, yes. Record heatwave as many media will make it sound? No. It’s hot and occasionally very humid, most of the time moderately humid. That’s enough for most people as you well know. Best wishes.

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