If you read the article, he clarifies his comment quite well. Headlines are usually click bait which makes it important to read. Also important is to use a good source which you did.
If we are out of the pandemic phase, what phase are we currently in. Epidemic?
I learned long ago not to engage with you, my dear. Did you read the article?
I give up. If Japan can’t handle BA.5 then no nation can.
I cringed when I read that tweet
True. But, Japan’s vaccination and booster rate are so much higher than ours. It’s also a relatively healthy population.
What it does show – Korea proved it a few months ago – is that masks are not a panacea, at least not when faced with something as contagious as BA.5. This doesn’t mean they have no value. They do still prevent some infections, and they prevent viral loads from being high, at least initially.
With its high vaccination rate……numbers are horribly high and it is a healthy population. Knowing all of that and seeing unprecedented numbers, is why I cringed and I think why Philip reacted also.
I was not clear what your true but meant
Someone asked a good question about where we are with the pandemic, and why there are so many different sources and different interpretations of the data.
The first question is easy to answer. We’re still in the pandemic – global epidemic – phase. I think we remain in that phase until our deaths go under 100 a day. They’re now at 435 a day and rising slowly. I had hoped we’d have transitioned to endemic by now. Alas.
The second question is really about science and how it evolves. Any clinical scientist who claims he or she knows for certain what will happen with a disease is not a true scientist. Science is about seeking truth through evidence collection and analysis, but knowing that certainty is rarely if ever found. Too many confounding factors; too complex a world. This is why good scientists – and good mets, too – give us probabilistic assessments. They don’t say “this will happen,” rather they say “we believe this will happen” or “it’s likely that will occur, other things equal.” That last clause is crucial. It’s not a cop-out. Ceteris paribus points out that there can be confounding factors we haven’t factored in or even thought about. And these can mess up predictions – or even explanations – in a big way. I taught methodology of science and also history of science. I really like this stuff. Too bad there is ZERO money in it.
Great comments Joshua. One of my favorite elective courses in college was History of Science.
Also, I had an economics teacher in high school who often said, “such-and-such, all other thing being equal, which they never are.”
Thank you
Thank you Joshua.
Joshua, just a quick thank you for your priceless commentary and information on this section of the blog. I really hoped too that I’d be able to be rid of this part of the blog by now, but I said I’d leave it until we are at least no longer in “pandemic” stage. Alas.
Anyway, I find myself referring to things you post here when talking about the pandemic in my daily life (work, wherever, etc.) and have gotten a lot of my guidance of where we’re going and how we may do from your information.
Thank you again…
C-19
7-21
ready
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
There are so many people stating many different things. Again like I’ve said in previous comments, it’s frustrating.
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/27/1094997608/fauci-us-pandemic-phase-covid-19
If you read the article, he clarifies his comment quite well. Headlines are usually click bait which makes it important to read. Also important is to use a good source which you did.
If we are out of the pandemic phase, what phase are we currently in. Epidemic?
I learned long ago not to engage with you, my dear. Did you read the article?
So when do we arrive at the “End”emic stage?
Interesting tweet in mask fit
https://twitter.com/abraarkaran/status/1549244985765089281?s=21&t=2X_cHQRf4vNE2kPxPLWAPw
Ugh
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1549760165624233985?s=21&t=VUsPux1p1HnQ6Ta2bc879A
I give up. If Japan can’t handle BA.5 then no nation can.
I cringed when I read that tweet
True. But, Japan’s vaccination and booster rate are so much higher than ours. It’s also a relatively healthy population.
What it does show – Korea proved it a few months ago – is that masks are not a panacea, at least not when faced with something as contagious as BA.5. This doesn’t mean they have no value. They do still prevent some infections, and they prevent viral loads from being high, at least initially.
With its high vaccination rate……numbers are horribly high and it is a healthy population. Knowing all of that and seeing unprecedented numbers, is why I cringed and I think why Philip reacted also.
I was not clear what your true but meant
Someone asked a good question about where we are with the pandemic, and why there are so many different sources and different interpretations of the data.
The first question is easy to answer. We’re still in the pandemic – global epidemic – phase. I think we remain in that phase until our deaths go under 100 a day. They’re now at 435 a day and rising slowly. I had hoped we’d have transitioned to endemic by now. Alas.
The second question is really about science and how it evolves. Any clinical scientist who claims he or she knows for certain what will happen with a disease is not a true scientist. Science is about seeking truth through evidence collection and analysis, but knowing that certainty is rarely if ever found. Too many confounding factors; too complex a world. This is why good scientists – and good mets, too – give us probabilistic assessments. They don’t say “this will happen,” rather they say “we believe this will happen” or “it’s likely that will occur, other things equal.” That last clause is crucial. It’s not a cop-out. Ceteris paribus points out that there can be confounding factors we haven’t factored in or even thought about. And these can mess up predictions – or even explanations – in a big way. I taught methodology of science and also history of science. I really like this stuff. Too bad there is ZERO money in it.
Great comments Joshua. One of my favorite elective courses in college was History of Science.
Also, I had an economics teacher in high school who often said, “such-and-such, all other thing being equal, which they never are.”
Thank you
Thank you Joshua.
Joshua, just a quick thank you for your priceless commentary and information on this section of the blog. I really hoped too that I’d be able to be rid of this part of the blog by now, but I said I’d leave it until we are at least no longer in “pandemic” stage. Alas.
Anyway, I find myself referring to things you post here when talking about the pandemic in my daily life (work, wherever, etc.) and have gotten a lot of my guidance of where we’re going and how we may do from your information.
Thank you again…
C-19
7-21
ready