Wednesday July 20 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

It’s the climatological hottest time of the year, and we’ll be talking about heat, right on schedule. For many locations, a solid heatwave is underway. Several locations, especially coastal areas, may escape it with a day or two during the next 5 failing to reach 90. Our saving grace is that the dew point, while high enough to make it “humid”, will stay below the threshold of “oppressive” most of the time, only reaching it Thursday and later Sunday as it looks now. Much of the other time, we have enough air mixing going on to bring drier air down from aloft via the down-slope effect so that most of if not all of the WHW forecast area keeps dew points below 70, and in the case of Friday, behind a cold front, down around 60. That cold front represents our only real chance of any rainfall during the next few days, in the form of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these can be strong to locally severe, but right now the coverage looks as if it may be limited. This will be monitored and fine-tuned during the next 48+ hours. The next shot of some shower and thunderstorm activity would be later Sunday with the approach of another front.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 88-95. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on, especially west of I-95. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Cold front passes with a chance of showers/thunderstorms early July 25, then drying and seasonably warm weather later July 25 through July 27. Increasing heat and humidity later in the period along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the period, projecting timing of features several days in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

A similar pattern overall with mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall opportunities.

55 thoughts on “Wednesday July 20 2022 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am on the Logan watch for temperatures today.

    Currently 82 at logan with dp 68 and WNW wind at 10 mph.
    On track for 90+, but WILL the sea breeze kick in and prevent that? OR will it reach 90 Before the sea breeze kicks in?
    My fascination for the day.

    Then I look to tomorrow for “possible” severe weather.

    1. Current NWS discussion regarding severe threat for Thursday:

      Convection will be more of a concern Thu afternoon as mid level
      trough moves east from the Gt Lakes. Environment will become
      moderately unstable with MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/kg and increasing mid
      level winds ahead of the trough will contribute to deep layer shear
      30-35 kt. This instability/shear parameter space will be supportive
      of organized storms capable of severe weather as height falls
      contribute to increasing forcing for ascent. CAMs indicating
      potential for broken line segments with the main focus across CT
      into interior MA where updraft helicity swaths are focused. Damaging
      wind appears to be the primary threat given steep low level lapse
      rates but hail will be possible as well. Mainly dry conditions will
      likely persist through the day across RI and SE MA.

      1. SPC discussion concerning severe threat for tomorrow:

        Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by late
        Thursday morning or early afternoon along a pre-frontal surface
        trough across northern NY into VT/NH. This convection should
        strengthen as it encounters a favorable thermodynamic environment.
        Any supercells that can be sustained should pose a threat for severe
        hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado given forecast
        0-1-km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 associated with a south-southwesterly
        low-level jet. Thunderstorms will probably congeal into small bowing
        clusters with time Thursday afternoon as they continue moving
        eastward from eastern NY into New England. As this process occurs,
        damaging winds should become the primary severe threat. Thunderstorm
        intensity should decrease towards the Atlantic Coast Thursday
        evening as instability should be more limited with eastward extent.

  3. FWIW, I am thoroughly UNIMPRESSED by the 6Z model runs severe parameters. We shall see what the 12Z runs and subsequent runs show. THere is a reason TK said activity
    may be limited.

  5. Logan now up to 86
    dp 70
    Wind WNW at 9 mph.

    The race is on and it now looks like Logan “should” make 90
    before a sea breeze, if any, kicks in.

    1. 🙂 🙂
      So that’s what fanned the flames of all of those fires they
      were fighting yesterday.

  12. Logan now has a SSE sea breeze. Temp still 90, but I suspect it will drop back to the mid to upper 80s soon.

    2. Went to do some errands in Downtown Crossing. Could feel a very slight change in the air. A marginal cool-down. Did my shopping at Roche Bros. and when I got outside it was that hot air feeling again. Now 93F, so it was a short-lived sea breeze.

      Still, it was a pleasant walk. The stage is up for Shakespeare on the Common. They’re constructing a section of the park that will have a sculpture tribute to Martin Luther King. Of course, the Brewer Fountain is such a gem. It’s as nice as any fountain of its kind in Europe. They had someone playing the piano there. There’s a periodical/book exchange, there, which is being used almost like a little free library. Office workers were at tables eating. Others – tourists, some locals, and an interesting collection of homeless folks – were sitting and enjoying the scene. I’m always happy to recognize some of the homeless folks, knowing that they’re still alive, survived the winter, etc …

  15. Unlike our friends across the pond, nothing to write home about regarding our hot spell – the first prolonged one of the season. I don’t believe any record temperatures will be falling during this stretch.

    2. If there are going to be any records, my money would be on Sunday. I think we’re going to have widespread mid-to-upper 90s on Sunday before the thunderstorms move in. The 00z GFS had widespread 98-102, which is ridiculous, but the 12z has 95-99 everywhere, which is a bit more reasonable.

      1. I was going to invite my friend visiting from California to a game of mini golf that afternoon.

        But then again that might give her the advantage. 😀

  17. Greetings from the top of Mt Washington. 55F feels wonderful. Breezy but not very strong. In the clouds, occasionally breaking for a splash of sun.

    1. Discussion for our area

      …Northeast…
      A weakening mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front will
      move through parts of the Northeast and New England on Thursday. In
      advance of the front, diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass
      will result in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE rising into the
      1500-2000 J/kg range. Initial development may occur as early as late
      morning, with an increase in storm coverage and intensity expected
      as convection spreads eastward through the afternoon.

      Effective shear in the 30-40 kt range will support the potential for
      organized multicell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging wind
      gusts are expected to be the most prominent threat, as low-level
      lapse rates steepen across the region prior to storm arrival.
      Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear (0-1 km SRH potentially
      increasing to 100+ m2/s2) will also support a potential for a
      tornado or two with any sustained supercells. Despite relatively
      weak midlevel lapse rates, isolated hail will also be possible,
      especially with any discrete cells.

  20. Decent sea breeze at Logan, Beverly and Marshfield.

    Logan ESE at 16 mph, but temp is still 88.

  22. Now 95 in JP. Norwood is 97.
    I am wondering if that sensor is off. It has been higher than all surrounding stations for days now.

    88 at the airport.

    2. It also has 102 in CON/MHT/ASH/DAW/BVY/BED/FIT, and 100 in OWD/Blue Hill.

      It has a very small area across interior SE NH (around Epping or so), with a 103.

      Somehow, I’m just not buying it.

  25. 93 with 67 DP and not a hint of a breeze. Even my HHH loving daughters can’t sit out. I tried but it is nasty. And I rarely say any weather type is nasty

    While I was typing, temp went up to 94

  26. When people ask me why I prefer winter to summer, days like today and tomorrow are exhibit A for the defense.

    1. Well then I absolutely agree. I can’t think of a winter day that I could not sit outside. Today I just couldn’t.

  27. Man, am I sweating and feel faint and kind of sick. I changed all the calendars in my apartment – I have three – to August already just to get a head start and remind myself that we’re getting closer to the end of high humidity days. While September can have its fair share of HHH days, they’re really dwindling by then. Plus, nights don’t ever feel tropical in September. Well, almost never.

  28. I will take the cold any day over the heat. It is going to feel like 110 down here in Virginia.

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