Thursday July 21 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

The July hot spell continues and as far as “heatwave” by definition, those that started to build one Tuesday should see it become official today as I think most of the region goes 90+ for temperature today. There will be the usual exceptions (parts of Cape Cod and the Islands, and maybe a few portions of the irregular coastline), but the general idea is we get to heatwave status today and then keep it going at least through Saturday. Our wildcard day is Sunday, which has the potential to be the hottest day based on current expecting timing of an approaching front and its cloudiness, because despite the higher heat potential, if that system ended up arriving more quickly than expected, parts of our area could still end up falling short of 90. Either way, that system should break the heatwave by Monday for at least most areas. But before we get there, we have a bit of a thunderstorm threat for today. This will be triggered by an approaching cold front, fairly weak in terms of the fact it won’t break our heat, but it will take the humidity, which spikes today, down a few notches for the end of the week. While any time you have a cold front slicing into a hot / humid air mass you have to be on the look-out for storms, I don’t think today’s activity will end up producing a sweeping line that gets everybody, but rather a cluster or two (maybe line segments) of storms that form to our west and northwest, then make their way into portions of the WHW forecast area, especially southern NH and central to northeastern MA, later in the day and for part of this evening. But as you go southeast, the support for storms will be more lacking, and I don’t think they will really survive the trip to impact many areas south of I-90 and especially toward the eastern coastal locations from near Boston southward. Something to keep an eye on of course, because thunderstorms can often have “a mind of their own” and defy what our short range guidance tells us they are going to do, but this is my general thinking and we will monitor the activity later today to see what the result ends up being. For caution, the two things to be concerned about today are protecting yourself from the heat (limit outdoor time if possible, and stay hydrated!) and watch for the late-day storm threat. We’ll have a warm and muggy night tonight, even areas that would get some temporary cooling from a storm, but slightly drier air will flow in overnight / early Friday behind that weak front, and even though it will be a hot day on Friday again, the dew point, which is in the lower 70s for many of us today, will be back under 70 and maybe even down to the lower and middle 60s for Friday. Over the weekend, we do stay hot, and the humidity remains barely manageable Saturday but may spike Sunday ahead of the next approaching front. So combined with the higher heat potential, Sunday may be the most dangerous day, heat-wise, of this stretch. I’ll assess the thunderstorm threat for Sunday-Monday as we get closer to that time, but for now it looks like we get through Sunday daytime without much of anything, then will have to watch for some activity Sunday night and the first half of Monday before the front sweeps through. Cloud cover and incoming “cooler” air should prevent 90s from occurring Monday as it stands now, breaking the heatwave.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms later afternoon / evening favoring southern NH and northern MA. Any storms can be locally severe with hail and wind damage. Highs 88-95. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH, can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling into 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 88-95. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Possible late-day showers and thunderstorms favoring western areas. Highs 92-99, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring morning-midday hours. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 70. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure brings dry and seasonably warm weather July 26-27. Heat/humidity returns with a chance of showers/t-storms on July 28. Another area of high pressure brings dry/warm weather for July 29-30. Confidence on this timing is not high at this point, but this is a best-guess.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Typical mid summer pattern. Warm to hot, a few shower/t-storm chances, rain-free most of time.

76 thoughts on “Thursday July 21 2022 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  3. Same WBZ radio anchor with his daily incorrect comment. Today it was talking about how tomorrow’s humidity would be far worse than today. Incorrect. The dew point that spikes in the lower 70s later today and this evening will fall well down into the 60s tomorrow maybe even to the lower 60s.

    Dew points in the middle to lower 60s are not oppressive.

    The quote from the anchor: “and if you think it is humid today, tomorrow will be downright oppressive”.

    So far my third attempt at contacting the station about this has had no reply through about 40 hours. I do not expect to hear from the station. I am pretty sure that this would never have happened when the station had its previous owners and not iHeartRadio.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Per JPD’s comment on Vicki’s weather humor, I’d LOVE to be shoveling snow today.

    Down under they’re shoveling snow in some high elevation areas. They’re having a pretty good ski season at Hotham. Were off to a great start 7 weeks ago. Unfortunately, that has since fizzled a bit. Still, it’s been a better ski season there than any of the last 5 years. https://www.mthotham.com.au/on-mountain/conditions/snow-weather-report

    Hotham’s elevation is almost idential to Mt. Washington; about 185 feet shorter. I was reminded of Mt. Washington when I read that Tom had climbed it the other day. He mentioned that it was 55F atop the mountain.

    1. Discussion

      …Northeast…
      Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
      from midday through the afternoon along and especially ahead of the
      front, moving east-northeastward to northeastward across the outlook
      area. Damaging to locally severe gusts and isolated large hail are
      possible, with a marginal tornado risk as well.

      Favorable moisture remains over and upstream from the outlook area
      in low levels, with widespread mid 60s to low 70s F surface
      dewpoints anticipated for storm initiation. Despite patchy areas of
      low- and middle-level clouds seen this morning in satellite imagery,
      sufficient diurnal heating should occur in that moist boundary layer
      to strip away already-small MLCINH values evident in modified RAOBs
      and objective RAP analyses across this region.

      The strongest large-scale lift should stay north of the
      international border. Still, with the heating underlying subtly
      increasing ascent ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, bulk
      steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates will occur, as well as
      strengthening of mid/upper-level flow. The result should be a plume
      of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, perhaps reaching near 2000 J/kg in
      southern areas where moisture and diabatic heating will be greatest.
      Even without particularly large low-level hodographs, such an
      environment supports supercell potential, as well as organized
      multicells and perhaps short lines with bow/LEWP formations.

  9. From NWS. Seems like this happens all too much.

    Severe weather threat continues this afternoon, mainly across the
    interior. Plenty of instability with MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/kg combined
    with decent 0-6km shear 30-35 kt support a few strong to severe
    storms, focused across interior MA into CT, roughly west of LWM-IJD
    which is where best updraft helicity and somewhat stronger forcing
    for ascent is located ahead of the mid level trough. Storms could
    develop in western MA as early as noon but main threat will likely
    be 2-8 pm. However, not looking at a widespread severe event as deep
    layer shear is not overly impressive and perhaps more important, the
    mid level trough and shortwave energy is lifting NE from the Gt
    Lakes with max height falls remaining to the north. Most of the CAM
    members from the HREF are showing mainly sct storms with somewhat
    limited areal coverage, likely a result of weakening forcing for
    ascent. Only WRF-ARW is indicating a solid line of storms moving
    through the interior. Damaging wind will be the main threat,
    although given 0-1km helicity 100-150 m2/s2 can`t rule out an
    isolated tornado with any discrete storms that move to the right of
    the mean wind, but this is a low probability.

    Further east, it is unlikely convection will hold together as it
    approaches RI and SE MA as storms move into a more stable
    environment with weakening shear and get further removed from better
    forcing to the NW. As a result, expecting dry conditions across
    RI/SE MA.

    1. Thank you once again for these, JPD. I stay with my younger granddaughter in uxbridge every Thursday afternoon. If we have severe weather, I’d prefer to be here since I know this house better. Long way to say I’m using your posts as well as TKs write up to decide whether we both just come here.

    2. As usual, Boston get skunked. I can’t tell you how many times this has happened! Sure the coast occasionally gets severe weather, but it is a lot tougher to get it here than inland.

      It figures. I suppose I should be happy, but sadly I am not.

  14. One lone Tstorm warning box west of Schenectady

    Looks like pop up cells and not a line. Or will a line come in time

  15. Thanks TK.

    It now appears that the pattern has definitely shifted and that HHH will be part of our lives for the foreseeable future. I had a bad feeling this would occur for the second half of the summer. We didn’t escape intense heat in 2009 nor in 1717 (year without a summer) for that matter. Oh well. 🙁

    1. The year without a summer was 1816.

      Also, tomorrow and Saturday and a good chunk of next week will not be HHH. Hot sure, but probably not humid or hazy. In fact, most of next week, except for a couple of days, will likely have dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

      1. BTW, 1936, generally regarded as one of the hottest summers on record across the US? Below normal temperatures here. Boston only had 10 days of 90 or better,, and never had consecutive days with 90+ let alone the 3 needed for a heat wave.

        You also referenced 2009 – Boston had 5 days above 90 that year, 1 in May, and a stretch of 4 days out of 5 in mid August, with only 2 of them getting above 92.. That’s hardly “intense heat”

          1. You were thinking of “the great snow of 1717” (which was actually a series of storms) .. 😀

  16. Tornado warning for a cell in far northern VT, near the Canadian Border. Seen on grey, ME NWS radar

    2. Stay safe. I just got here (home) with my granddaughter and saw this. I have a friend in Gardner I txtd.

  22. I agree that area tends to have warnings. There was one last august as we drove home from north Adams. You guys here helped us know which route to take home

  25. Wouldn’t surprise me if the cell misses. We are east of the storm and it looks like it is going Northeast. But mother nature has other plans I’m sure.

        1. Watch it carefully. It appears to be pulsing some and the latest flareup appears to have been a bit more to the South.
          Hopefully it slips by just N&W of you, but it looks to be close.

  26. Thanks TK.

    Some briefly heavy rain, wind and thunder here in Manchester CT from a severe warned storm that basically disintegrated as it was passing through here. I am seeing plenty of blue sky now off to the north and west.

  28. For the one in NH around the concord or bow area, Eric said it has a tornado tag on it. My brother is at the hospital with his wife. She was readmitted last night

    I don’t want to give him something more to worry about but does anyone see an indication of rotation in those areas.

      1. Thank you, OS. When tornadoes are about, time you will always be OS 🙂

        I finally called my brother. I was afraid he might drive home to Bow and would be going right into it.

    3. Not a met as you know. I took a look. To my eyes it shows
      signs of broad weak rotation. It is kind of in between radars so anything showing is fairly high up. Very difficult to know for sure.
      Hopefully all will be well.

      It is NOT currently warned that I can see.

  30. Chris …I hope all is well there. I’m not sure what part of Pepperell you are in but it looked as if the tail of that cell passed over your town

    1. Hey Vicki, yes we got clipped by the tail. Saw lots of lightning and buckets of rain. We had brief wind but I’ve seen worse.

      Sun is out now

      1. Awesome news. So happy to hear all is well.

        My Friend in Gardner said there was a cool breeze after everything passed. Not sure if that was short lived but any cool breeze now is very welcome

  31. The storm passed to the north of Lunenburg, probably over the Townsend, MA and Brookline, NH area. I was outside and could hear the distant thunder and feel refreshing cool(er) air wafting down. Now the sun is out and the temperature is about 14 degrees below what it was before the storm passed.

    1. Oh my goodness. I forgot you are in that area. I apologize. I’m very glad all is well there also

  32. Nada here. It clouded up earlier, but now the sun has broken through again with a nice southerly breeze.

    85º now down from a high of 91º. It was a plenty toasty 96º yesterday.

    We’ve had 0.39″ in showers this month. Our lawn looks like The British Open at St. Andrew’s! There’s been more bird poop in the rain gauge than precipitation!

    Thanks for the recent discussion on root beer. It brought back very fond recollections of drinking Hires at my grandparents’ home in Foxborough on hot days such as these.

    You can’t buy Hires anymore. I used to get it through the Internet but no more. I like a cold cream soda and an artificial grape soda once or twice a summer.

    JPD, how’s Mrs. OS doing? I always think of her on uncomfortable days such as these. Hope she’s well and coping!

    Stay cool, y’all!

  35. Power out. I’ve been calling nat grid about this problem for three weeks. It’s own tech person told me then that they’d put all houses on one cable because the other one was bad. He said we’d blow that cable when we all started using ac’s

      1. No. I’m actually loving it. I’m
        Complaining because NG created this potential problem April 28. We discovered it three weeks ago when BG cans for an unrelated problem. The neighbors and we have had dimming lights for months. I call regularly…not daily cause I know the are busy and don’t want to irritate them. Three weeks of explaining their serviceman said this Would happen and they ignored me. I’ve only known for 3 weeks. They’ve known since April 28

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