Thursday July 28 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)

113 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A low pressure disturbance associated with a broad but weak upper level trough will swing eastward across the Northeast during the next 2 days. For us here, this means a little bit of unsettled weather, with shower and thunderstorms opportunities with a warm frontal passage today, a trough passing through this evening, and a cold front and weak wave of low pressure on it later Friday. None of this appears poised to give our region a beneficial and widespread slug of rainfall, which is badly needed to improve the building drought, but a few areas may receive a decent shot or two of rainfall during this time. Breaking it down a little more, the warm front traversing the region from west to east today will struggle to generate too much activity, but some scattered shower activity should arrive during the midday and afternoon, and there may be a heavier downpour or thunderstorm in isolated locations. After a couple of low-humidity days, this warm front will re-introduce muggy air to our region, which will hang around through Friday. Next, a surface low pressure trough will be swinging eastward behind the warm front tonight, and its reflection will be a line of showers and thunderstorms that forms over NY State later today. This line will charge eastward, but the timing may be a little late for it to make its way all the way into and across the WHW forecast area in solid form. It may be weakening and even dissipating as it does so. But a little now-casting late today / this evening will help bring that convective episode into focus, and whether or not it will have any notable impact on the area. Friday, we will be in the muggy air with a varying amount of cloudiness, but the tendency for more cloud cover as we get later into the day. Right now, it looks like the cold front is going to try to come through our region fairly quietly, struggling to generate any showers and thunderstorms, but a couple could still pop along the boundary so we’ll have to watch for that. Better instability sits to the south of the region for this frontal passage. However, with some of the guidance hinting at a little low pressure area trying to form along this front during the last couple days, I’ve been watching to see if this was a fictional or factual thing, and it looks indeed like it may happen with pretty much all the guidance indicating that. Unfortunately, it looks like too little too late to provide beneficial rain, but a slug of showers may visit a good portion of the region during Friday night, favoring southern portions of the area, and there could be some embedded thunderstorms as well. This may linger near the South Coast until near daybreak on Saturday, but will exit quickly. High pressure will be moving in just in time for warm and dry weather for the final weekend of July with low humidity. This high will slide offshore Monday, another fair and warm day with an increase in humidity once again as we welcome the month of August.

TODAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with a few showers around and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny thereafter with a chance of a thunderstorm late afternoon favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog overnight interior low elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring central to northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 83-90. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely later evening and overnight south of I-90 with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm to the north. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Daybreak clouds and a possible shower South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

The general pattern is one of warm to hot weather with a flat ridge of high pressure in control, but regionally we likely see humidity and a thunderstorm chance August 2, an intrusion of drier air and possible coastal ocean wind August 3, then a more general southwesterly flow into later next week and watching for thunderstorms around August 5. Potential for another push of drier air from Canadian high pressure end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Very early period may have drier air before the warm to hot and more humid regime returns. There will be opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, but the overall pattern continues to look drier than average.

113 thoughts on “Thursday July 28 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I know my area will miss any rain. It has been the pattern.

    1. Here as well. Our local spring fed water areas are mud puddles. Our lawns except if heavily watered are straw.

      1. My lawn has been doing OK with watering once per week. Trying to put down 0.5” – 0.75” during my allotted time. I invested in a couple products to help with the drought, one being a wetting agent to prevent drying out and hydrophobic soil, and the other claims to bring the water molecules down into the soil to the roots faster. I was skeptical but it’s worked out great and have been surviving on 50% less water even during the recent heat wave.

        1. Wow. Do you mind if I ask for the name? We unfortunately face south so have solid sun and literally not an ounce of shade. Our lawn is tan and green. Better than some in the neighborhood, the same as others and worse than the few that are solid green.

          1. I should have added. We have sandy soil so I think water just flows through it…..maybe?? We have been watering front 20 min/night and back (a bit less sun) 10

      1. Quick peak at the latest SREF showing that low tornado risk for most of SNE today. A bit of a higher threat western MA VT and NH.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Did a rain dance, but probably because I really cannot dance (and the rain gods notice) it won’t rain in Back Bay.

  7. Thanks TK !

    We saw Elton John last night at Gillette.

    Outstanding show, his voice remains strong and sounds great. His band was also superb.

  9. We all know more than three days out a model is not accurate. But to me, this is where I think models can help. As they say….Forewarned is forearmed.

    Any time I hear of a “potential” weather event, I take some easy steps to prepare. I know the pacific NW Mets were excellent at getting the word out a year ago June without creating unnecessary panic…but giving folks time to prepare.

    Anyway. I applaud Eric for this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1552393761275219970?s=21&t=5otA_o3gKXLvC7amO-2R0A

  10. It’s been a great weather week up here at Hampton beach with the exception of Monday. Unfortunately it’s been the worst vacation ever as I tested positive for Covid on Tuesday. I guess it was bound to happen & I’m hoping the vaccinations did what they were to do . It’s pretty much been like a bad cold .

    2. Oh no SSK. This variant is very contagious. I had it earlier this month and the sore throat was the worst part. My wife and daughter didn’t end up getting it.

        1. I started with mild symptoms on a Wednesday and sore throat became bad on Friday night and I tested positive for the first day on Saturday. Sore throat eased overnight on that Monday. Doctor said Advil was best for the sore throat, as it works against inflammation. The sore throat is the worst complaint everyone seems to have with this variant, for those I have talked to.

  13. Thanks, TK!

    Most importantly, I am praying for your SIL, you and your family, Vicki. May she have comfort and peace.

    TK, also hoping that you have a chance to catch your breath real soon!

    SSK, I am sorry you’re not well. Hang in there, amigo, and feel better!

    Only 0.07 in a brief thundershower earlier in the week. That puts us at 0.46″ for July. There are parts of the lawn turning dark brown. My dogwood tree showing signs of moderate stress.

    So glad you had a great time at the Elton show last night, Tom!
    I saw the “beginning” (Show # 14) of this tour at the Garden back in October, 2018 which seems like a lifetime ago. Let’s hope it doesn’t rain or thunder on the “real” Captain Fantastic tonight at Gillette!!! 🙂

  14. Vicki, just read regarding your SIL. Thoughts and prayers for her, you and your family.

    SSK, feel better soon.

      1. Thanks, Vicki. Things are ok. Lots of dr. visits for me and husband but usual stuff.

        I am bad. Although I do read the WHW blog frequently there are times I don’t. I think I missed out on some birthdays. Did I miss out on your birthday, Vicki? If so, hope you had a good one and for anyone else’s birthday, too. And I am posting this not because my birthday is nxt. wk. Not planning much anyway – maybe a trip to the beach. May take out for dinner. Husband won’t eat out at a restaurant – ‘though we always mask and even with shots we are wary. Maybe we are too wary. Oh, well.

        1. We do not go into restaurants either. Each person has to do what works for them.

          You, JPD and my youngest grand all have a birthday in six days. I think it’s six

    1. No, he did not.

      We were wondering if there was going to be an opening act.

      He came right out, on time at 8pm.

      Did a curtain call, with, I think it was 3 more songs to end the show. Played for 2.5 hrs at a very energetic level.

      1. I should add that we entered Gillette around 7:45pm and then, I stood in line for a beer. Got my beer, but my wife was in line for a margarita.

        I waited for her, heard a roar at 8pm and ran to see that Elton had come on stage.

        But, I couldn’t see or hear anything music wise prior to 8pm, so that’s why we don’t think he had an opening act.

    1. Rain Only at my house I’m told. I headed to Uxbridge as my grand was home alone and isn’t crazy about storms. Nothing here yet

    2. A few??? WOW! A whole crap load of convection popped.
      Some headed this way. Rain? Hope so, except I do NOT want to close windows!!!!

  20. Pouring rain here. This is one of those years when just as my lawn starts to brown over, we get a downpour and I have to cut it again. I was hoping for a week off, but no such luck.

      1. I am in Sutton. The grass is definitely stressed, but not to the point of not growing. I don’t water it except for rain.

    2. Was pouring at my house also but very briefly and then burned off. We got 0.03. Marion’s camp in center 0.07. As I recall you are over toward grafton. I don’t know that area well.

      Downpour in Uxbridge too. But 0.05

  21. So sorry to hear SSK. Get well soon.

    I am hoping for an “Omicron specific” vaccine coming this fall. I am fully vaccinated but according to my PCP the current vaccines have no affect. My last shot (#4) was in February.

  22. I seem to recall Eric mention in passing “1983”, but not certain in which context.

    Are we going to go through that type of heat on a daily basis next month?

  23. I am not going to tonight’s concert, Tom.
    The show that I went to in 2018 was one of best (social) nights of my life that tonight’s show (or last night’s) could never come close. Besides, I am saving pennies for my return trip to Nashville in October for my 40th college reunion (and more honky-tonkin’!)

    I am so glad you had a blast last night!

    TK, as long as I can remember, Elton’s concerts never had an opening act(s) nor an intermission!!! A true showman!

    Sun is out here. I wonder if that will fuel the fire for significant storms later. DP = 71º.

    1. Sorry I miss understood Captain 🙂

      Nashville for your 40th college reunion sounds awesome !

  24. SSK, take care. Feel better.

    Tom, nice that you got to see Sir Elton.

    Vicki, hope the hospice plan works out well for your sister-in-law.

  26. Feels Accra-like outside. Not to the degree that Monday did, but still. Let’s hope there’s rain coming. Someone mentioned brown grass. It’s very brown here, too, especially the Boston Common and Esplanade Park. The Public Garden gets watered a lot so the grass is still green there, and the Commonwealth Avenue mall is shaded and the grass looks pretty good. I think parts of it also get irrigated somehow (not sure).

    1. I suspect that we will have to wait until next spring for any fresh “green” grass. Even when beneficial rains do arrive the grass at this point will remain brown anyway. It’s too far gone now.

      From what I can tell though, the leaves on the trees are still holding up, for now.

  29. Raining in Hampton now but not a lot . The group is going out on a fishing boat tonight

  31. Storm Prediction Center Storm Report from that tornado warned storm earlier in Upstate NY

    PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY OF EF-2 TORNADO DAMAGE ALONG A 10 MILE PATH FROM THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE TOWN OF JAVA TO JUST NORTH OF GAINESVILLE.

  34. Tom thanks for answering my EJ question above. 🙂

    Another busy day. But now I have a 3-day weekend. I am thinking of chasing north to meet the line coming across southern NH this evening.

      1. I ended up going west instead of to NH. The stuff was dying so I went west to catch a few rain drops before I stopped to do some kitty-sitting at my friend’s condo.

  36. This Severe Thunderstorm Warning has a possible tornado tag with it.

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
    Western Worcester County in central Massachusetts…
    Southern Hampshire County in western Massachusetts…
    Southeastern Franklin County in western Massachusetts…
    Central Hampden County in western Massachusetts
    * Until 800 PM EDT.
    TORNADO…POSSIBLE
    HAIL THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX HAIL SIZE…<.75 IN
    WIND THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX WIND GUST…60 MPH

  39. Will that cell heading NE in Granville zap strength from the cells heading WSW toward this area. Or push it more to the north

    2. Storms for where I am in Holden tend to split last second and head north and south of me probably at least half of the time. I’ve assumed over the years it has to do with the geography.

      It’s pretty humid so let’s see what holds together.

      1. Monday, Thursday, and Friday were the shower threats for the week, limited in time. Monday was the most unsettled. Thursday’s was limited to late day. Friday’s will be a nighttime event.

        Feel better!

  46. Getting a nice soaking, not much in the way of lightning, but a nice steady moderate to heavy rain. The rain gauge shows .70” so far and counting with more to come.

  48. Vicki I managed to squeeze .92” out of this. The lawn and garden will be very happy. It seems the last few times we’ve had a storms all around us but nothing here. We finally lucked out tonight.

    1. I am so happy for you. We got 0.17 and it shut the last time I had to use the irrigation system down. We have a full water ban starting tomorrow

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