Friday July 29 2022 Forecast (7:28AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A cold front will amble its way toward and across the region today and this evening. Ahead of it, we’ll have a warm to hot and fairly humid day, but instability is lacking, so the front is not likely to produce any shower or thunderstorm activity as it moves through. However, a disturbance crossing the region tonight along with a wave of low pressure forming on the front and passing just to our southeast will bring a swath of rainfall to some areas overnight / very early Saturday. The rain is most likely over far southeastern CT, southern RI, and southeastern MA. Upon its exit we begin a weekend stretch of great summer weather as high pressure moves in. This high slides offshore early next week with an increase in heat and humidity, but modestly. A cold front approaching the region on Tuesday will bring with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms after a fair weather day on Monday.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Showers likely southeastern CT, southern RI, southeastern MA. Chance of showers elsewhere. Patchy fog forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early morning clouds including additional showers Cape Cod. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure will be in control of the weather for much of this time period. Slightly drier air for August 3 as a new bubble of high pressure arrives via the Great Lakes, then heat and humidity increase as high pressure shifts offshore August 4-5, including a thunderstorm threat with an approaching cold front on August 5. Shower threat may linger into the morning of August 6 before high pressure brings mainly dry weather for the balance of the first weekend of the final month of meteorological summer, based on current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

76 thoughts on “Friday July 29 2022 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    hardly any rain here last evening. Perhaps .05 to .1 inch or so. my gauge is kaput.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    It eventually rained last night in Back Bay, but very little.

    Remember June and even early July, with lots of relatively cool nights, low humidity, and no real heat. Well, that is a distant memory. Historically the last 10 days in July are summer’s hottest. But, not only has it been warm to hot during this period in 2022 it will remain so for the foreseeable future. A very sustained stretch of above to well above normal temperatures, a tremendous amount of sun, and nighttime temperatures generally only dipping to around 70F, which produces even more of a tropical feel.

  5. This morning I checked our High-Resolution Cylindrical Analogue Wireless Transparent Wood-Rack-Mounted Rainwater Collection and Measurement Device. It looks like we got about 0.7500000407″ last night.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Another 7-day heatwave next week with 100F temperatures next weekend?? Say it ain’t so. 🙁

    1983 or 1988?

  7. Logan measure 0.04 inch yesterday. Big woof.
    That’s like getting nothing at all.
    Sounds about right to me, based on what I saw.
    It was raining lightly here, but NO need to even close the windows!

  8. Sun angle is about the same angle as the second week of May. Still a lot of strength . Farmers down here in RI. Only have about two weeks of water to irrigate there crops.

    1. Very worrisome. We had a full water ban for those of us who have water from a neighboring water district. I’m not sure what it means for the many in town on wells. I’m assuming folks with wells are quite concerned also

      One individual posted a comment from Millbury center that she was looking down on the Blackstone and there was not much there.

  15. Thanks TK
    I could tell you there was not a tornado warning in Colebrook, CT when what looks like from those pictures a tornado occurred.

    1. Interesting. I see it is in the NW corner and I believe was the line I watched all the way to here. Like you, I did not see a tornado warning. I wonder if this was the same area retrac was seeing last night

  16. Thanks TK !

    I don’t think we received anything more than sprinkles last night, so hopefully, something materializes tonight.

  17. The Red Sox have just a 26% chance to make the playoffs, compared to a 38% chance before the All-Star break, and a 79% chance back on July 4th.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    It’s 85 degrees in Sudbury now, but there’s a nice breeze that one could almost call cool. Humidity down so that could be why it feels cool. Sun is still hot, ‘though. Enjoying the nice change in weather – until it changes again. I heard a little rain in middle of last night. Parking lot was just damp. Have my doubts about getting much rain here tonight.

    1. We didn’t have much last night either but watered the lawn since it was the last chance. By 4:00 everything was bone dry.

  20. Last time out I found the Charles River to be very low.
    Not sure as low as I have ever seen, but very low to be sure.
    Will be going back several times during next week. We shall see.

  21. As TK, SAK and JMA have been pointing out, the GFS’ 103-109F projections originally in the long range projections have settled down to something more realistic, in the 97F-103F range as the time frame for excessive heat has reached the medium range projections.

    As of now, the focus for excessive heat seems to be narrowing to next Thursday and Friday. Warm to hot Monday to Wednesday preceding this.

    1. Six degrees is better but ewww. Interesting if this does pan out, the GFS will be off just a couple of degrees more than it was for the PNW June 2021

  22. Monday is August 1st and to me when August 1st hits five and half weeks left of sustained heat and humidity. Once you get past the first week of September the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power.

    1. Too bad we have to wait another month before that staying power diminishes. These HOT airmasses are AWFUL!

      1. At least this pattern was not here for the whole summer. The first month and a half of meteorological summer had many nice days with comfortable levels of humidity.

    2. When my kids were quite young, I could count on August to offer a number of days where they’d need warm pajamas. We’d plan our Humarock vacation for August because there was less chance of HHH weather.

      1. When I was a kid, I can recall a few relatively cool days/nights in August as well. But there were still plenty of HHH days as well.

        I would say well below normal temperatures during the summer months will be EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY rare from now on. Climate Change has definitely taken over the entire planet.

        1. In a warmer globe above normal temperatures are more likely during the cold season.

  26. Every year there is a break at some point in August – even during hot Augusts – when summer is on the receiving end of a jab. It’s usually just a jab, and summer tends to recover quickly. But, you know at that point that summer is coming to a close fairly soon.

    Simon and Garfunkel wrote a beautiful song that encapsulates some of the weather changes. I wouldn’t say that in August the winds can “blow chilly and cold,” but certainly with the resumption of Canadian cold fronts by late August, it’s noticeably cooler. The tropical nights can still happen, but not with nearly the frequency as they do now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITXBjDTXS90

    April, come she will
    When streams are ripe and swelled with rain
    May, she will stay
    Resting in my arms again
    June, she’ll change her tune
    In restless walks she’ll prowl the night
    July, she will fly
    And give no warning to her flight
    August, die she must
    The autumn winds blow chilly and cold
    September, I’ll remember
    A love once new has now grown old

  27. It’s 90F where I am. Not brutal. But, I’m kind of in a daze and will be for a few more weeks.

  28. Back home a day early . Feeling better & better each day & I’ve been cleared for work Monday morning as planned .

      2. I’m still testing positive as of this morning but according to the nurse I spoke with today at occupational health she said stop testing because it could show that for awhile . Work requirement Is believe 7 days quarantine from day 0 ( first symptom) and if symptoms have significantly improved with no fever last 24 hours w no fever reducing medicine you can be cleared for work but I need to wear a mask while outside for 5 days after quarantine. I am still congested with straggling cough but definitely symptom improved. We still need to wear masks at the Hospital & probably will be for quite some time ( maybe years ) she said the contagious part I should be out of if I heard her correctly & I think I did .

        1. Hi SSK. You can continue to test positive for some
          time after. I was still testing positive 2 weeks after and it is not uncommon.

        2. Paying 1k to stay at the beach & you need too pull away from friends & family sucks . I also got handed a free admission ticket last night to KC & the sunshine band sold out concert at the casino ball room that I was trying to get tickets too so that sucked as I did the right thing of course & did not go in ( I took the ticket & thought about it lol .

  29. That convection in the southern DelMarva makes me nervous about not getting much rain tonight.

    Maybe the splattering of showers in SE NY State is a hopeful possibility.

  30. According to Jacob, a 5-day heatwave next week with Thursday and Friday the hottest in the upper 90’s!!!!

    1. Eric is saying a potential for the same with the hope guidance will bring temps down over the weekend.

    2. The #’s I’m seeing on the GFS are too high. Climo is not build into those models. I think Boston will also miss 90 on Wednesday. They may touch 90 Mon & Tue and again Thu & Fri, making 2 brief stretches of 90-degree heat and no heatwave.

    1. There is a small area around Athol. I think they got rain in that area last night. Maybe before that too

  32. My daughter in Uxbridge just got this. This is just the first part but tells the story

    The Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs has declared a Level 3 – Critical Drought for the Central Massachusetts region. We have seen over five months of below normal rainfall. Drought has set in all across the state, and intensified in some regions. Stream flow is severely impacted with dry stream beds and ponding; drought-induced fire danger is on the rise, and; drought conditions are starting to impact our farms, with losses in soil moisture, more heavy irrigation needed and initial signs of crop loss.

    The July 28, 2022 drought alert and map can be found here. For more information, please review the state’s website.

  33. Rained very briefly just before/around sunrise barely moistening the sidewalks and car windshields.

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