Saturday July 30 2022 Forecast (8:43AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

A fabulous weekend is ours for the final 2 days of July. High pressure builds in with seasonable warmth and low humidity. We only have to deal with some early clouds today over southeastern areas, as daybreak showers have already exited the Cape Cod area as of the time I write this update. Today will also be the breezier of the 2 weekend days, so if your plan is to fly a kite at some point this weekend, today’s your day! 😉 A lighter wind will be had Sunday as the high center is more on top of the region and the pressure gradient is relaxed. High pressure slides offshore as August arrives and we’ll build a bit of heat and humidity back in early next week, including a thunderstorm threat later Tuesday with the approach of a weak cold front. That front will introduce a new area of high pressure and a slightly less hot and humid air mass for Wednesday.

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds southeastern MA and RI, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

High pressure will be in control of the weather for much of this time period. Surface high pressure goes offshore again with heat and humidity for August 4-5, including a thunderstorm threat August 5 as a cold front approaches. Additional unsettled weather is possible to start the August 6-7 weekend with the front exiting the region early August 6, based on current timing, but most of next weekend looks dry as well, on through the end of the period, with near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

64 thoughts on “Saturday July 30 2022 Forecast (8:43AM)”

      1. Generally middle 80s to lower 90s.
        Has a spike higher into the 90s for Aug 4.
        This is more reasonable IMO.

        1. Good. Let’s keep fingers crossed if stays the same although into the 90s I suppose can still mean 99

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Virtually nothing here last night.
    Didn’t even leave any puddles. No surprise there.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    My rain dance did NOT impress the rain gods, clearly. In fact, to rub it in they wound up spitting at me. That’s about how much rain we got in Back Bay in the past 30 hours or so.

    You will notice some leaves turning brown; ivy, for example, that grows on the walls of brownstones in my neighborhood. In a drought, that’s a typical sign. Next you’ll start to see clumps of green leaves fall to the ground. After that you’ll begin to see some browning and yellowing on the edges of oak tree leaves and even some maples. This is a stressful time for the trees.

    There’s really no rain in sight.

    1. Smiling here at your first paragraph.

      Eric….I think…shared photos of early left drop a few days ago. So far we are all green …trees, not lawns…..but then October would be early for us to start seeing leaf change.

  7. Thanks TK.

    There is a large bush next to where I work and it is now a very beautiful ORANGE, turned about 2-3 months premature. This is obviously due to the current drought.

    I have also now noticed quite a bit of early leaf drop off on some trees, and complete color changes as well.

    Does this kick off early fall foliage throughout?

    1. Not completely. In 2016 there were a fair amount of trees / bushes that went dormant to survive, but our foliage season was not really that bad, all things considered. There was a very early burst, then the rustic burst was later. Those trees are usually less impacted by drought as they draw from deep in the ground.

  9. FWIW.

    My son-in-law (HVAC Business) explained to me that in Worcester area, compressors are designed to meet 74 inside for an outside temp of 86. This applies to most of SNE if not all NE. Newer compressors are undersized. So Once we get into 90s, thr compressor can run all day and not make a huge difference. This is just a rough rule of thumb. There are commons sense variables such as the amount of shade a home and/or compressor has.

    He did say that well into the 90s using a hose or sprinkler to cool the compressor is a good idea.

  10. My SIL, Sheri, passed away peacefully this morning. Thank you all for your prayers. They were a special comfort. She came home under hospice care yesterday and was with my brother and her sister.

  11. According to Dave Epstein, the HOT/dry pattern is locked in through August. 🙁

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

    1. That’s a bit bold to go through August, but I can see why he’d do that. It’s at least in place, dryness-wise for a while. As far as hot all the way through – maybe not so easy to pull off, but it depends somewhat on heat dome placement.

  14. DP’s all 50-57 now except a couple 57-60 degree readings left on the South Coast. Very refreshing breeze today as well.

  16. 12z GFS with onshore flow and 65-70F next Friday after 95F -100F Thursday.

    I should have known but have been reminded again to focus short term. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. Vicki, please know of my love, prayers and sympathy on the passing of your beloved sister-in-law, Sheri. May she know eternal peace and you and her/your family know consolation.

    The numbers on my rain gauge did as well as my numbers in MegaMillions! 0.15 in overnight showers.

    Philip, there are leaves in the woods behind my yard turning a crimson red. It’s not a tree, but more of sprawling bush.

    1. Thank you, Captain ❤️

      I posted earlier that our leaves are all nicely green. And I neglected to look behind the house on the hill. The tree that struggles each late September now has all yellow leaves. Some are falling. Many of the wildflowers my son planted a few years ago covering a good portion of the hill have not appeared.

  20. 73, lower 50s DP, a gusty wind, and lots of stratocumulus clouds in North Adams. A late summer early – autumn feel out in the northern Berkshires this afternoon.

      1. That’s not how it works around here. 😉
        But we are far from the worst place for humidity in summertime in this country, so there is that…

    2. Son and DIL were out that way heading to VT to camp.

      Enjoy. There is a great pizza place. One sec. I’ll find the name

      1. Hot Tomatoes. Williamstown.

        If you like blue cheese dressing on your salad, they make their own and it is amazing

  22. Nope, I’m not out there yet, but it’s happening soon. Just planning.

    And yes Vicki I am making note of that place. I’d love to visit it!

  23. Today’s 12z GFS may be the worst I’ve seen yet when it comes to what I feel is an unreliable temperature forecast.

      1. The wild swings were just very unrealistic. Going from 100s to 60s and back again. Not happening.
        As a meteorologist you look for red flags with guidance which is your signal to adjust accordingly. 🙂

        My friend is going to write an email on this subject soon that I will share here.

  25. GFS swings on the 00z run became even more pronounced. Let’s be in the 100s one day and the 50s with rain next. Nope.

    06z isn’t great, but it is “less bad”.

    The Euro is, … the Euro … Maybe someday they’ll find some help for this once-much-better model.

    Anyway, who cares at the moment. The blog is updated so this is where I come here to say …

    New weather post!

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