Sunday July 31 2022 Forecast (8:08AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

We may be in a drought situation but we’ve been getting some great vacation weather around here this year. Always a price to pay, it seems. With no end in sight to the drought, we do look for any drop of rain we can get, and there are not a lot of drops in the forecast over the next 5 days as we end July and begin August. If you were up early today, temperatures in the 50s greeted you if you went outside, thanks to low humidity, a clear overnight sky, and calm wind, setting up a nice radiational cooling episode. But today with high pressure over us we’ll see about 100% of the possible sun, maybe briefly blotted out by a few fair weather clouds and then filtered by some high clouds this afternoon. We can also enjoy low humidity and light wind with some coastal sea breezes developing. High pressure moves offshore tonight. Monday, low pressure passes south of New England but may be just close enough to bring heavier clouds and perhaps some shower activity to the South Coast before it moves away. Tuesday, humidity spikes ahead of an approaching cold front which brings us the chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or the evening. A new bubble of high pressure via the Great Lakes brings slightly drier air for Wednesday, with fair weather, before it moves offshore and we get a spike of higher heat and humidity for Thursday. While many areas get to 90 or higher that day, some of the astronomical readings guidance has been showing us for many days leading up to this are highly unlikely to occur. The next potential thunderstorm threat can come later Thursday pending the speed of approach of the next cold front and whether or not there is an active pre-frontal trough, which would be the most likely trigger and most likely north and west of Boston. But it’s far too early for any timing / detail.

TODAY: Mainly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast where it can fall back to the 70s. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers South Coast. Partly to mostly sunny elsewhere with most sun further north. Highs 83-90, warmest interior northern MA and southern NH. Dew point passing 60 on its way up. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms late-day or evening, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

This is where my forecast starts to diverge from what medium range guidance shows as I feel most medium range models are performing very poorly. August 5 is a muggy day with a shower / thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. High pressure brings warm, dry weather for August 6 into August 7 but an attempt at humidity returning brings clouds back for the end of that weekend eventually leading to a shower / thunderstorm chance around August 8 before another shot of drier air arrives for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal for average, but no extreme heat at least in any prolonged fashion.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry. Basically “typical” August weather in New England.

59 thoughts on “Sunday July 31 2022 Forecast (8:08AM)”

  1. Not sure about the 100% sunshine today. The leading edge of the clouds from tomorrow morning’s disturbance are already approaching NYC, and will likely be in here this afternoon.

    1. I already fixed that when I saw how fast those high clouds were moving. I still went with nearly 100% because we have a few tiny cumulus and the high clouds shouldn’t be all that thick when they first arrive.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Another top-10 day ahead! 🙂

    HOWEVER, if Logan can sneak to 90, it would be the beginning (day #1) of a heatwave through Tuesday. Doesn’t make much sense though to have a “top-10 day” in the midst of a heatwave. We will see.

    1. Whenever I see an 88 temperature forecast, I always believe that there is room for a potential 90.

      2. Logan won’t even get to 88. The point forecast has 85. I figure 84 or 85 before they drop to 80 or upper 70s.

  9. Thank you.

    Robert makes an excellent point regarding the dry ground. That’s going to lead to overshooting in terms of temperature in some places.

    It is bone dry outside. Watch for brush fires, folks.

  10. Yet another hiker dead in the vicinity of Mt. Washington’s summit; specifically, Jewell trail, which I’ve been on many times. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2022/07/31/after-mountain-hiker-dies-rescuers-carry-body-nearly-a-mile/?p1=hp_featurestack

    People underestimate the Presidential Range, and not just in winter.

    A friend of mine’s father died climbing Tuckerman’s Ravine – the most popular trail to ascend Mt. Washington. This happened 45 years ago, in summer.

  11. Approaching disturbance will look more threatening on satellite than it will be. Most of it dries up. A few showers reach the South Coast. Maybe a moderate shower reaches Nantucket sometime Monday. That’s about it. Tuesday’s threat is not likely to produce widespread beneficial coverage of rain, nor is anything else for the foreseeable future. As usual, the guidance for late week and next weekend looks worse than it will end up turning out. But we’re used to that by now. 🙂

      1. Our weekend weather folks …the three I checked….have 97/98. Still too high for me but far better than 100 plus.

  13. Another warm & beautiful day ahead . I’m trying to get some air in the house as unfortunately my wife is very sick right now & is in the very high risk group . I’ll put the A/C back on later which I think is fine . Back to work tomorrow ( I think !!!! )

      1. Yes home test yesterday morning . She has it worse then I had with different symptoms like very weak & vomiting . Going to the Hospital is a real possibility today . I have no idea what I should do about work tomorrow I guess I wait & see if she’s here & if she is stay home & if not go in . My are desperately praying that Our son escapes this as he has a heart condition. Covid is very much alive but there is another section for that . Filtered sun & clouds here .

    1. The GFS warms the 850 mb temps to their highest values late in the afternoon Thursday, so that’s why some surface temps actually project a 1F or 2F warmer at 5pm compared to 2pm.

      1. Also, as we experienced a week ago today, the projection for upper 50s dps overlapping the hottest projected spots.

    2. Oh no. Damn it. I know he had 88 fine years. But, somehow I never thought Russell would die. Something magical about the man.

  16. SSK, I am very sorry to hear about your wife’s condition. GI system involvement is part and parcel of a number of Omicron variants, including BA.5. My thoughts are with her, you, and your family. Take care. The good news is that the hospitals know the drill at this point. So, if your wife does wind up hospitalized, most hospitalizations are relatively brief and successful in that the vast majority of patients don’t wind up in the ICU.

    I know this belongs on the other side of the blog, but I figured I’d write it on the weather side to ensure you get to see it, SSK.

    1. I appreciate it . At least I have no idea how I got it but it sucks knowing I gave it to her because she chose to stay in condo to watch over me , I feel horrible !!!

  17. Best wishes SSK .. hoping for the best possible from here.

    Vicki, on FB I posted some pictures you may enjoy. 🙂

  19. 77 at Logan while it is 89 here in JP. Pretty warm out here for sure. I have been out and about and it is toasty.

  21. So sorry about your wife, SSK. Hope she gets better soon.

    Also sorry about Bill Russell. A legend for sure.

    1. Well you know those veils of high clouds about 30,000 ft above the ground have a way of ruining an entire weekend. 😉

      Glad you’re okay with it though!

  23. Who wants to live in a pit or a cave on the moon? Apparently, the average temperature is “stable at 63F.” No doubt one could set up wi-fi or some kind of communication system and work “remotely.” However, much less gravity would be difficult to deal with, as would a lack of gaseous oxygen. https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1553550789381165056

  25. SSK, hope your wife gets better quickly and that your son doesn’t get it. My wife managed not to get it when I had it a few weeks ago but now has been exposed to two people closely at work. We are definitely in a surge right now.

    1. Thanks North. She wants me to stay home tomorrow from work as I’m the only one going into our bedroom & not quite sure how she will feel . I wear a mask when I go in there & I am on the couch . Just hoping I do not get it again as well as I’m still in recovery mode

      1. Probably best for you to stay with her tomorrow. I don’t think you can get it again right away, especially if she may have gotten it from you and has the same variant, so you are probably safe but wearing to protect your son is definitely needed since he isn’t positive and has his own underlying condition.

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