Warm Surge Coming

179 Comments

3:56PM

The upswing is coming. High pressure sliding offshore will sent a southwest wind in during midweek with a significant warm-up. I do not think this will turn into record warmth at Boston. The record highs are 69 for Wednesday and 67 for Thursday and I believe Boston will fall well short on Wednesday (topping out in the 50s) and a few degrees shy on Thursday. Either way, it will be enjoyable March warmth other than a gusty wind to deal with at times. A cold front will move through Thursday night with rain showers, sending cooler air in for the end of the week. Temperatures rebound again by Sunday before the next front sends them back down a touch on Monday of next week. There are no major late-season winter storms in sight.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Some clouds cross the sky from west to east but move out again around dawn. Low from the upper 10s valley areas to upper 20s coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 33-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 55.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 49.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 47.

179 thoughts on “Warm Surge Coming”

  1. That mini disturbance that coated the tornado ravaged areas with a bit of snow is now a deep ocean storm that looks like is going to bury Newfoundland in snow tonight.

    1. Hadi, Wishing you the very best for a most enjoyable and safe trip to Burma. And, YES! please do bring back some warmth with you 🙂

            1. Again that’s all I will say. If you can afford another four years of you know what, good luck. For the record I am an independent.

              2. My mom was a staunch republican. I’ve said here before there is not one major republican in this state who was not a regular in our home even Kissinger she was one of the key players they looked to to organize votes I still have a gov Sargent license plate he reserved for me.

                1. Good so you won’t vote for that democrat. If that’s the case you can vote for any republican.

                4. Oh and good grief I’d shoot myself before voting for santorum or the newt. Gives me the Heebie jeebies. Btw. I’m an independent too

                5. i then would not fit in since i am democratic.
                  i went skiing at wachusett tuesday.
                  got 40 something runs in . Its what you can do on a weekday. NO LIFT LINES! I will be voting for Obama.Look at all the good things he has done and fixed alot of what Bush did to this country.

  4. I am so looking forward to the warm weather the next couple of days. The cold had its chance, now let’s move on.u

    1. I like the first part of spring when things come back to life. Its the heat and humidity I don’t like. To me 75-80 is perfect temps for summer.

        1. i say 75 -90 is all good i want warm temps once march is over. I want one more snow storm and i want to get at least 2 more ski trips. then it can get warm

    1. Wow. Thanks coastal. I remember driving down to charleston to see inlaws the year after Hugo. We went through Charlotte NC to visit other relatives. Even in Charlotte and along the highways we could see where Hugo had cut through

      How’s your wife coastal?

        1. Good for her. The kids and school are more than lucky to have her……………you too 😉

  6. Regarding Old Salty, there is still that Jeopardy contestant from JP who won again tonight…hmmm. He is on the “old” side but not particularly old. I wish I knew how far in advance those game shows are taped. If it is in fact OS, perhaps he is not allowed to go online under any circumstances until his “stint” on Jeopardy is over.

    In a way, I hope that the Jeopardy contestant is “Old Salty”…at least we would know he is ok…and now quite wealthy, lol. 🙂

    1. Oh darn Philip I havnt seen the show yet tonight. 🙂 Hmmmmm. Maybe I can use this info to trick my husband. I like that idea.

      And I sure do wish it could be him. This is just NOT like old salty.

      1. Vicki…the more I think about it, this contestant from JP and OS not around can’t be just coincidence. When the contestant finally loses and OS suddenly returns here we will probably know for sure. 😉

  7. Way back in the day, there were “reform” schools for bad boys until they were 18 years of age. Too bad they don’t exist today. It would make schools much safer for those who want to learn.

    1. I’d forgotten about them. Did they do any good. Sure doesn’t do good to put them in jail. They just learn to go back

      1. Vicki…realistically they probably did little good for most of those bad kids but at least they kept them out of society for a few years so the good kids could learn in peace until graduation.

        IMO, there should be a push to seriously bring them back.

    2. Most schools have an off site place where the troubled kids go. They had one in marshfield when I was in school. Good night.

  8. I found this out when I went to see a taping of Wheel of Fortune back in NYC in 2007 that the person who wins on the show is not a liberty to discuss any results until he or she loses and the show airs.

  9. When I went to see Wheel of Fortune back in 2007 I went in September and the shows aired in the first part of November. I ended up seeing two shows taped.

  10. Did some digging on the jeopardy contestant. Says he’s a Retail Horticulturist. Does anyone know if that’s what Old Salty does? If so then we may have our guy!

    1. He also loves to swim – does so in the local Y daily. But is it filmed live or ahead? I was so hoping when I came here this morning that I’d see old salty’s name 🙁 I don’t think TK answered as to whether he can email him but in all honesty if he’s on the computer to see an email, I think he’d be here. Did anything happen that might have upset him here? I’ll have to go back and look.

    1. The maple sugaring industry has been hit hard this season due to the warmth. There was a segment this evening on WBZ-TV news showing one company that has lost $10,000 with no hope of recovery. The industry in Canada is doing just fine, however. No surprise since it has been nice and cold up there.

      1. What makes me chuckle – and I am not saying it’s funny – are the comments made by the trolls on the BZ weather blog when a storm is coming. They accuse “us” of wishing for a disaster. Somehow they fail to see that many industries in the snow areas thrive on the fact that there will be snow.

    2. interesting article I have been seeing this. I have 2 bird feeders around the house and we have not seen as many birds but when we go down into the marsh we do see the birds. they are finding food since there is no ice or snow

  12. I really believe that there will be no more opportunities for even a flurry let alone any significant snow until the fall, hopefully no earlier than November this time. We all now know what happens when snow occurs in October. 😉

    I suspect that by St. Patrick’s Day there will be more than four leaf clovers popping up. There should be crocuses already up with tulips coming up fast. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see many trees budding out by the end of the month. From what info I have been looking at this evening, it should definitely be an early spring for SNE and much of the CONUS. All the cold is locked up in Alaska to stay…they still refuse to share any with us so no late winter/early spring snows will be coming this time around.

    I also suspect that below normal precip is going to be an issue sooner or later. I suppose it is better than what happened in the spring of 2010.

    Btw, my snowdrops have been up since mid-February. They normally come up more like around late February/early March. They are soooo cute when they poke through a moderately deep snow cover. lol. 🙂

    1. 9.0″ = 1936-37
    2. 9.2″ = 2011-12 (final!) 🙁
    3. 10.3″ = 1972-73

    1. He Philip I work in this field. By the end of the month the bulbs Will be up. Some not all are raised about two inches. This warmth these two days will help. I would suggest to everyone start thinking about spring cleanup. Start with your raking of the lawn. You want to get up the dead grass and all the twigs and branches from the winter. When the ground softens overturn flower beds and add some nutrition to the beds. Feel free to ask questions. Also pruning.

      2. John my daffodils flower/bulb (what do you call it?) are getting really full. It’ll be a bit before they bud but the few crocuses I have may flower soon. But it still is only 2 weeks ahead of last year however it is far ahead of 15-20 years ago. I’d say by a good month – maybe more.

      3. John, Any idea why my Iris leaves are are looking quite sad this spring? Is it too soon for them to be showing, or is what I previously though, lack of water?

  15. Last time Old Salty was here – unless I missed something – was Tuesday, April 28, at 4:55 pm. That’s over a week. TK is there anything we can do???

    1. Hopefully he’s on vacation…..also, I’ve noticed he enjoys posting and analyzing model runs and the weather pattern has been kind of dull in that regard lately. I think the last event was 2/29….so, once you got to 2/28…there hasn’t necessarily been a lot to discuss storm wise.

  16. Checking Mt Washington home page, it’s 24F at the summit, fairly impressive. Just a thousand feet below that, there’s a several hundred foot layer that’s 40F or a little higher, which to me is unbelievable.

    I wonder if the Merrimack Valley and southern NH are going to make 60F or a little better today away from the indirect sea breeze off of the ocean south of us.

    1. Forgot about one “little item” in those 2 areas…some residual snow cover which has these areas a few degrees lower than Boston’s 57F at noontime.

  17. retrac, thanks. And all because I read the worst written article on La Nina. I can’t even remember where I saw the article (Too many glasses of wine.). Anyway the theme was about the understated effect of La Nina on this winter’s patterns. It was just one met’s opinion, but the cabernet was good so I decided to believe him.

    Or was it the square root of the NAM divided by the EURO minus the amount in the Farmers Almanac? That wine was good! 🙂

    1. wine huh….whatever it takes right! 🙂

      I like your algorithm too–you should have kept that a secret.

    1. It feels like 100 degrees right now in this mechanical room that I am in. Acctual tempature may be that close, all steam.

  19. went skiing at wachusett on tuesday good conditons got out before it got sushy and warm. going to stowe vt this saturday and racing. going to have so much fun

  20. Has anyone ever skied Bretton Woods? Have a free lift ticket from buying a new pair of ski boots this year and wondering if it’s worth taking a trip up there before the season is over.

    1. It’s a wonderful area – I haven’t skied it for years but remember long and wide runs. My son skies it all of the time. Is it Joshua whose daughter is up there??? I’m sorry if I didn’t remember correctly. Definitely worth the trip IMO

      1. Thanks Vickie! I guess any day out of work to ski is worth it. I just hope I can get a day off before the snow is gone.

    2. its a good place i went last year by bus… boston ski store . No longer around but still the busses go to woburn train station. Look for the schedual as the buses go to different places. this weekend is stowe.
      I recomend you go . It also will not be extremely cold like it sometimes get because of mt washingtion hovering next to it

      1. Thanks matt, I may look into that. Definately for next year too. I used to go on the bus trips out when Ski Market was still around. Lots of fun and beats driving and paying for gas!

    1. If we are not going to have more winter, I hope we will actually have a spring. I’ve felt for years as if it a season that is disappearing.

  23. I have a question for everyone, how many more nights will Boston get to 32 degrees from this point forward?? Put me down for 2

  24. Henry Margusity on his morning blog declared WINTER IS OVER…DONE! 🙁

    When Henry has given up, we all should as well and move on.

  25. We are now transitioning into an El Nino pattern. Texas will be wet this spring so no drought is likely like last year which is very good news. Atlantic hurricanes will be supressed this time around, so hopefully no more repeat of an Irene.

    Assuming we continue into El Nino for next winter, will that mean cold & snowy? 🙂

    1. Depends on many factors but the majority of El Nino winters are milder than average in the temperature department.

  29. FWIW…per Taunton Climate Data…the long term average low of 32F at Logan occurs on March 18th. It reaches 40F by April 14th.

    1. awwwww jeeeezz – my head will explode if you keep giving me more info – I changed to 13 now – anyone think I’m making this much more difficult than it should be?

      🙂

  31. This is what I have so far – am I correct that every night so far this month has been below 32 in Boston except march 3 and 4? Making sure I’m reading the archieved data accurately so I can track starting today.

    Charlie 2
    Philip 3
    Tom 8
    KWM-Hingham 6
    Vicki 9
    Hadi 3

      2. got it coastal

        based on fact that I was reading it correctly – thanks Tom – I’m upping mine to 18. So now it’s fairly certain it will be my original guess of 9

      1. got it matt and feeling better about my guess now – coastal and I were the only ones hanging out in the teen range 🙂

  35. I’m gonna go with 5.

    Today is the first day it feels warm to me outside. I know we have had some milder days this winter (50’s to near 60 a couple times), but today didn’t have a winter feel at all as the breeze was warm. Feels kinda nice!

    1. I’ll do the same as I have in the past and reply that I have your guess. If you don’t see my reply, please make sure I saw your guess – thanks

  38. Ok, so even as of late yesterday, I think the consensus high today at Logan was about 57F to 58F and, as of 2 pm, it’s 61F.

    This leads me to tomorrow. Seems like the consensus feeling this morning, for tomorrow…..was 65F or 66F. So….how about 70F tomorrow ?

      1. TK, since Boston is already into the low 60s (61 as of 2 pm) wouldn’t you expect temps to be near 70 tomorrow if anything since the airmass is expected to be even warmer?

        1. The lower atmosphere is moistening faster than modeled, and is expected to continue to do so through tonight. Will probably end up with more cloud-cover tomorrow, and a higher dewpoint which means that more work will be needed to warm the lowest levels up. This may negate some of the warming of the airmass and we may end up only slightly warmer tomorrow than today, hence my forecast for 64 for Boston.

            1. No sea breeze tomorrow…too much SW gradient… 20-25 MPH gusting 35-40 MPH at Boston.

  40. Charges were filed this morning. The police said because he is a juvenile the DA will request a plea bargin and he would do community service. If they decided to fight this then it will go to trail. No word on him return to class. Will know more next week.

    2. Thanks for the update Coastal. Assuming it will stay on his record? Has your wife been able to relax some?

      1. Matt, long story. Look back to the last couple of blog updates. You will find everything there.

        Vicki, unfortunately it will not stay on his record.

        1. At least community service is better than no punishment at all. I can’t imagine the kid’s parents fighting this by going to trial. IMHO the boy (and the parents for that matter) are pretty much lost causes at this point anyway.

      2. I don’t believe there is ever a lost cause Philip – if so my SIL would be one – parents don’t work, supported by state, addicted to whatever is the flavor of the month, brother been in jail most of older life, sister’s life a mess……..thanks to a high school english teacher and grade admin who saw the potential (and in large part my daughter) he will complete 4 years of college in 3 years this spring, even with double classes has been on dean’s list and then presidents list every semester and been recognized by every prof he has. Needless to say he has not seen his family in years but it took tremendous strength. It’s why I’m so bullish on getting these kids help and why I firmly believe teachers make all of the difference in the world when the kids are basically being raised by wolves.

  41. I found a way to guarantee that we will have a surprise late-season snow dump. Shocked that I didn’t think of this earlier, but it seems foolproof. I’m putting all of the snow shovels and ice melt in my store away in the basement.

    Sorry it took me so long to figure it out, but now you can just sit back by candlelight as if you were at Vicki’s place during one of her ‘suspicious’ blackouts and wait for the snow to fall.

    1. Maybe Vicki can put on her snow socks that she received last Christmas. We got 81″ of snow last time she wore them. 🙂

    2. hahahaha – you are all welcome! It’s BYOB and we’ll cook up whatever is in the freezer

    3. Tornado Chris – I actually do have some suspicious blackouts – we were supposed to have had a hurricane back in October in the late 80s I believe. We didn’t get it so I declared a day of no power – it was a blast. Topped it off by reading Legend of Sleepy Hollow to kids at night.

      On Earth day – I will disown any child who uses power 🙂

  42. I could be wrong, but on this 32F contest we now have going, I think cold advection could have Logan under freezing this coming Sat morning and then, even at Logan, a bit of radiational cooling could get it below 32F Sunday morning before the warmth returns Sunday.

    1. I agree with that, but I am somewhat surprised at the high numbers many are posting. It is expected to be well above normal for the foreseeable future through the rest of this month. After this weekend, I don’t know where any more cold air will be coming from and Alaska still refuses to give the CONUS even a taste. Maybe I am too low…we will see.

      1. Agreed ! I noticed on Taunton’s climate section, that Boston’s long term avg low hits 40F on April 14th. This is 38 days from now. I picked 40F because if there’s below normal weather, I figured 8F below normal was reasonable in a below normal pattern, especially at night…..So, if it’s below normal only even 20% of the time, then 20% of 38 days is about 8 days and that’s why I went with it.

  43. Old Salty…I read your post today over on the WBZ blog and I just want to say that we were simply concerned that you suddenly stopped posting, especially just prior to the last storm. I really doubt anyone was trying to get into your personal business. If I suddenly stopped posting regularly, I would appreciate everyone’s concern even if there was no current issues in my personal life. Sometimes bad things happen to people without any warning. Just tune in to any 6 & 11 pm newscast.

    Anyway, I hope to see your posts here again at your leisure.

      1. Interestingly enough Old Salty (or the person posing as him) posted his first post around 8:30 this morning. That original posting was removed. He then reposted around 2:15 this afternoon.

        On another note a sure sign of spring for me is that the FM radio dial has enhanced signals (tropospheric ducting). I’m a radio dxer (AM, FM, TV, Shortwave, Longwave…you name it). Right now with my antennas pointed SW I’m hearing WLNG 92.1 on Long Island and WFUV on 90.7 from NYC. Ahhh…gotta love spring!

          1. A dxer is someone who listens (or watches in the case of TV) for long distance radio signals. We are different from Ham (Amateur) radio operators in that we don’t transmit. I’ve been involved in this hobby for almost 20 years now. I’ve logged over 1900 FM stations from various points in North America (including Cuba and the Bahamas). I’ve also logged over 900 stations on the AM band from North and South America and Europe and the Mideast.

            1. I should also clarify that my 1900 FM stations across North America have all been heard from my home base in Hingham.

    2. He posted on wbz. Trolls are watching all that we say here, they just can’t post. This could be a troll. I will check later, I have a 7 pm meeting.

      1. You guys are probably right and that it was a troll posting as OS. From now on, I have to remember that even though trolls won’t be able to post here, they can still view our posts.

        Sorry about my post Old Salty…I was completely fooled by a troll, but I should’ve known better. >:-(

        1. Philip you have nothing to apologize for. You gave a very polite explanation. I forget trolls are reading but if that’s what their lives revolve around then how sad.

        2. Could be that troll who got on here last week, the one who attacked alisonarod. I would bet anything that was a troll. Remember we are being watched.

    1. Shotime i heard a major flare could shut down radio stations but they didn’t think this was large enough. I don’t know timing. Do you?

    2. Going back to my radio theme from a few posts ago 🙂 A solar flare like this could disrupt some radio communications but for me it increasing the chances of catching AM stations to the southern parts of the U.S. and also Cuba and South America.

  45. Sea surface temps are close to 50 degrees south of RI, and temps are around 45 degrees north of Boston, I believe that’s around 4 or 5 degrees above average

  46. Thanks shotime for sharing that article. Even though it is not mentioned, I am also wondering if solar activity can also affect weather patterns down the road.

  47. I heard about the solar flare as well. Too bad it’s a hazy night, there was an outside chance the aurora would be visible tomorrow morning just before dawn.

      1. I believe I read the flare was released late last night and will make it’s closest pass sometime just before dawn tonight

          1. I was talking to a coworker about it today and she got all excited and asked me what direction to look in the sky…I just smiled at her silently until she got it, lol

  48. I missed the end of tonights jeopardy game, does anyone know if “Old Salty” won again?

      1. He had it in the bag but wagered fairly big on final and didnt get it but is up in the 80s for a total. Sorry cant remember exact amount.

        1. He ended up with IIRC about $14,400 which makes his grand 4-day total in the $80,000+ range. What is amazing is that the answer was so easy…”Hallmark”.

          The “clue” was very difficult. I have no idea what a “goldsmith” does. When I play along I very rarely get a final Jeopardy correct.

            1. It was a much more reasonable guess than mine was…”Target”. 🙂

              I was surprised that none of the contestants didn’t at least come up with the name of a “company”.

  49. So I just read that post from the troll, yes troll claiming to be oldsalty. That was a no brainer, thats not his style. I would say just use caution with your posts. I know we all talk about things here other than weather. Just keep in mind whatever you say here can be posted on the wbz site. It sucks but I 100% believe we are being watched here by the trolls. I know Tk and his staff do a great job keeping them out, but they can still come here and read. We no longer are a secret club. Thank’s TK for doing your best to keep them out.

    1. Thanks John for the heads-up. I still feel stupid for falling for that troll. That post did somewhat offend me and I am just glad I didn’t respond to “OS” in kind. I always make sure to post respectfully regardless.

      Also, what is ironic, another troll responded to that “OS” post with a typical rude comment. Thinking it was the real OS I came close to reporting it…certainly glad I didn’t. 🙂

      1. Philip honestly nothing to feel badly about. You did what they cannot – you were respectful. Never be embarrassed by respect. Too little of it left I this world

    2. The trolls are anthony and peter. They are all over twitter. Anthony has his own sne weather site. He bases his forcast from what he reads here. The guy peter is a nut job. Anthony started crying on twitter because he thought Pete unfollowed him. Real immature individuals. You’ll see me getting bashed over there for posting this.

  50. Have a good 10 days all!! Hope for nice weather around here while I am gone. TTY when I get back.

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