Tuesday August 2 2022 Forecast (7:41AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

Some summer heat and humidity will be around during this 5 day period, but there are moderating factors and breaks built into this pattern as well. So despite some media making you think otherwise, this won’t be a sustained stretch of weather brutality. In fact, today starts out rather comfortable but it does heat up and the humidity goes up during the day as we get a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Like many systems this season, this front will struggle to produce much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity (even though guidance in previous days showed otherwise – gee what a surprise!). The areas that do see something can get a downpour with thunder, so be on the look out for that later today / early this evening. That’s outta here tonight and the humidity drops a few notches. With high pressure centered to our north for Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a more comfortable northerly to easterly air flow and just above everybody staying under 90 for high temps, with coolest on the coast. But the heat and humidity comes back for Thursday as that high center slips to the southeast and turns out the heat pump. That will be the day that most areas will easily exceed 90, and some locations will make a run for the upper 90s. I don’t think we’ll find any triple-digit temperatures that day, however, and most record high temperatures for the date will stand unbroken. We’ll have to watch for a batch of thunderstorms coming out of NY State late in the day or the evening but those are likely to run out of steam before having much of an impact on our region. If anything does make it into the WHW forecast area, it would be the northwesterly portions (central MA and southwestern NH) late-day or evening. More likely our shower and thunderstorm threat will be on Friday as a cold front moves into and slowly across the region. That day will still also be quite humid and rather warm to hot. The front will push through by early Saturday and my current thoughts for that day allow for lingering showers near the South Coast early in the day, otherwise high pressure providing drier weather, less heat, and moderate to high humidity (but a bit lower than Friday) to start the first weekend of August. We may have to deal with some cloudiness however with the front sitting not too far to the south.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible west to east late afternoon to early evening. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An slight chance of an evening thunderstorm well north and west of Boston. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Highs 81-88, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

The front just to the south likely dissipates by later in the weekend (August 7) so expect some clouds around but dry weather and moderate humidity. Southwesterly air flow provides a shot of heat and humidity and approaching cold front adds a thunderstorm threat for August 8. High pressure should build in behind that with fair weather, modest humidity, and temperatures near to above normal August 9-11, maybe a bit hotter by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head into the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

81 thoughts on “Tuesday August 2 2022 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  5. Per Eric. Records for august 4 are 96 Boston in 1928 and 95 in Worcester 1944.

    While tracking that days is fun, A wise person reminded me that climate change is not about specific events, it is about trends.

    1. Yesterday Eric had 99 for Boston so kiss that 94-year old record goodbye.

      I suspect we will see many Boston records tumble before this summer ends. 🙁

  8. Thanks guys I’m continuing to improve but definitely not 100% . I’m working today but if my wife needs Attention today I will be leaving , she is struggling .

  12. I think this upcoming Thursday through the following Monday (5 days) will be interesting to compare to the 7 day very warm/hot spell we had a week or 2 ago.

    Though shorter in duration potentially, I think this 5 day stretch could well be the more uncomfortable stretch.

    Higher, more sustained humidity this Friday thru Sunday and maybe more than one day in the mid-upper 90s ??

  13. FWIW,

    The 12Z NAMS have Thurs PM temperatures only near 90,
    NO STINKEN upper 90s. So what gives with the guidance?
    Geez! Not that I want upper 90s, because believe me I do not!!

    1. Higher dewpoints.

      It gets you to the same heat indice of around 100F. Most other guidance is mid-upper 90s with near 60F dewpoint, NAM is 90F with 70F dewpoint.

      NAM overforecasts dewpoints, I believe.

      1. which is good because I don’t think we’d want its Friday dps to verify (mid 70s).

        I do think something like 65F to 70F is likely for dps Friday.

      2. Ok, I get that. But why such a variance in model output.

        Btw, I don’t buy near 90 for Thursday. I think we will
        FRY. We shall see. Here’s hoping for the lower
        temperatures!!!!!

  14. Parts of Illinois. the latest in a string of locations lately, to have training thunderstorms dump inches upon inches of rain over the same locations for multiple hours.

  15. It is curious/interesting that I see summer 2011 in many record breaking or high temp discussions. I’ve mentioned a few times that June 2011 was far less June-like than the one we just had. It offered low temps and a lot of drizzle. Yet the summer set records in our area.

    1. I don’t recall summer 2021 let alone 2011. The only reason I remember 2009 was because of the anomalous coolness. 😉

      1. Our porch and the family room that shared a wall were being repaired from ice dam damage the previous winter. It may be the only reason I remember it. Weather delayed the process.

        June in 1982 IMO was even worse.

  16. Thursday holds on 12z GFS as mid/upper 90s (Spot 100F in Merrimack Valley) with upper 50s dps in hottest areas.

    Friday: maybe a little cooler on the thermometer, but I think it will feel worse than Thursday with higher humidity and a lighter, less ventilating breeze.

  17. SSK, praying for your wife. I hope she starts feeling better real soon!

    Remembering 102º in Taunton, 107º in New Bedford and Chester, 104º in Providence, 102º in Boston and 101º in Hartford this day in 1975.

    It was 101.5º here on August 2, 2006.

    Taunton has had 14 100º+ maxs since 1893, nine in the 21st Century.

    2. My family and I were helping family friends move from Belmont into their new home on the Dartmouth College campus. She was among Dartmouth’s first female professors. We had no idea what the temperature was but wonderful folks next door kept bringing us water and lemonade.

      I recall once home later that night sleeping on our living room floor in front of the open French doors to the porch.

      AC was not close to as common back in the day as it is now.

    3. Oh Boy do I remember that day!!
      We were on the CAPE in Eastham and it was 98 there!
      I never in my life experienced temperatures that hot
      on the CAPE. NEVER!

  18. 12Z GFS still projecting afternoon highs on Thu at 96-100
    across the area with dps upper 50s to low 60s.

    1. 12Z GDPS is projecting highs of the lower 90s with dps
      upper 60s to low 70s. Likely a worse scenario than the GFS.

  19. Another impressive/bit concerning Thursday-Monday run on the 12z GFS.

    During those 5 days, heat indices of 95F-100F.

    Different ways too. Some days with higher temps/lower dps and some days with lower temps/much higher dps.

    Am a bit concerned for the possible cumulative effect of this during this time frame. Hopefully everyone can find ways to be cool or cool off.

    Off to go camping, this time by the ocean, thank goodness, on the south coast by Buzzards Bay.

      1. Wait. It won’t be 96-100 Thursday? I know my daughter would love if we can move from the Monday and/or Thursday events. Although she loves the heat……

      2. But what really is the difference between 90-95F and 95-100F anyway? It’s still uncomfortable to the human body. YUCK!!!
        🙁

    2. I am very happy you are near the ocean this time. I love how much you are enjoying your summer.

  21. Forecast highs for WHW today, 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere.

    Current temps are ranging from 79 to 91 across the region, which are just about your max temps. No over-achieving today!

  25. Thanks, TK.

    Humidity is building, but it’s not that hot outside. Not yet. Did hit 90F just now and I’m sure we’ll see more days like this during the week.

  26. We’re at 92 with dp 69. It is DISGUSTING HERE!!!!

    And OF COURSE the rain showers have gone POOF(!@()&#)(!&@)(#&)!(&*@#)(&!)(@#&*)(!*@#)(*!)@(#*()!*@#)(*!@(#*

    1. If this pattern continues for the entire month, the record of 30 set in 1983 is very much in jeopardy.

      1. The good news is that it’s not going to continue and that that record is very safe.

        Boston is not getting to 90 on Wednesday. Not likely this weekend either.

      2. We would need some serious continued hot weather over the next 4 weeks. It appears a possible break from 85+ degrees breaks after mid month. It’s far out.

  30. Thanks TK.

    Vicki, I was just catching up on the last few days of the blog…I am very sorry to hear about your SIL.

    SSK, hope you and your wife are feeling better.

  31. If the 12z GFS is correct, we cool things off and aren’t nearly as hot beyond Monday of next week.

    This for next Tuesday…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022080212&fh=174

    And Wednesday:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022080212&fh=198

    Beyond that, temps are fairly normal in the 80’s right through August 18. Nothing too hot as the heat dome remains parked over the central US.

    Of course its the long range GFS but we can always hope.

  35. Showers and storms behaved as expected today.

    So Boston missed 90 yesterday, got there today, will miss it tomorrow, will get there Thursday and Friday, and will miss it Saturday. Assuming I am correct about that final day, no heat waves this week for the city.

    1. We’re due. Let’s hope. I’m hearing from folks near the South Coast that they’ve had some rain in the past few days. Not a lot, but still. Boston’s effectively had no rain for a long time.

      1. I drove through the side roads from south Sutton to the center. It’s dry. All water spots. Lawns are brown.

        I sure hope we see some beneficial rain soon

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