Wednesday August 3 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

Classic summertime pattern for New England over the next 5 days. First, high pressure sits over us today with warm air but lower humidity behind a weak cold front that passed by our region during yesterday. This front produced a few showers and thunderstorms, but most locations went without. Everybody gets the humidity break today though, and many areas will fail to reach 90, though some interior locations may touch it this afternoon. Expect a coastal sea breeze to provide natural air conditioning for the beaches. The Bermuda High heat pump takes hold for Thursday through the weekend, but the hottest day, temperature-wise, will be Thursday when dew points start out lower and give the atmosphere a chance to heat up more rapidly. The thunderstorms that I previously mentioned to watch for late in the day for the northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area will probably take place a little further west and an hour or two later than I envisioned previously, so I am removing this chance from the forecast other than us seeing a deck of clouds on the horizon that may blot out the sun before it reaches the horizon Thursday. Friday and the weekend will be very warm to hot and humid, with highest dew points likely on Friday. They may come down just a bit for the weekend as what used to be a cold front moving into the region on Friday will wash out and dissipate as it runs into the influence of the Bermuda High, but will have brought with it every-so-slightly less humid air. Many won’t notice a big difference though, except possibly along the coast where a few sea breeze may take place on the weekend – more likely Saturday than Sunday. Also, I expect that the weekend will be largely a rain-free time period, but I cannot rule out a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms popping up. There may also be a little bit more in the way of mid level cloudiness at times during the course of the weekend from some air lifting over what used to be that frontal boundary, and a couple very weak disturbances coming along in the southwesterly air flow over the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late afternoon. Highs 90-97 except below 90 along the South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon. Highs 83-90, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 83-90, coolest southern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

High humidity and very warm to hot weather with a thunderstorm threat as a cold front moves into and across the region during August 8. High pressure builds in with fair weather, lower humidity but still moderate, and temperatures near to above normal August 9-11 before humidity and shower chances go up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head through the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry in terms of rainfall.

95 thoughts on “Wednesday August 3 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  1. A note for anyone reading NWS products. Today their discussion headline says high heat and humidity through the weekend, which implies today is included. Immediately after that they mention that notably lower humidity will be present today. That’s a contradiction and can mislead folks who read both the discussion and the forecast.

    Take it from me, today will not be a crisp dry day with refreshing and invigorating Canadian air, but it will be noticeably less humid than yesterday. Example: Boston’s dew point has already dropped from 70 to 60. And it will not be overly hot, especially within several miles of the coast where a good sea breeze will be present. Not sure what the motivation for their wording was and the built in contradiction, but you won’t find that here, and if you do, please let me know. 🙂

  3. WBZ anchor at it again..

    “Even if we don’t reach 90 everyday it’s still close enough that we can call it an official heat wave.”

    No, no that is wrong.
    An official heat wave is three or more days when the same location reaches 90 or higher for a high temp. Period.

    Also after my third attempt at writing to the station I still have heard nothing back. I can laugh at what the anchor says most of the time but they definitely get an F for communication with their listeners.

  5. Happy birthday to JPD, rainshine and Rilyn Mac. I hope everyone has a day full of laughter and love.

    1. Thank you. I have officially reached an age where I can no longer count the years. 🙂

      Happy birthday rainshine and Rilyn Mac!!!

      And let us not forget one Mr. Tom Brady. 🙂

  6. Thanks TK.

    I’m curious about the origin of “heat wave.” Where did we or why did we choose 90 as a defining temp? I still like hot spell without a quantifier.

      1. 1963 I believe. I got a Zenith transistor radio for my birthday. That and Mocking Bird ..April Stevens and Nino Tempo ( Sp?) ..were my favorites that year.

      1. Thank youSClarke. VERY interesting. It seems heat index can factor in for our location. I like the opening sentence.

    1. Really? What it just the MTA then?

      Not really related but interesting, I found this…

      The Tremont Street subway in Boston’s MBTA subway system is the oldest subway tunnel in North America and the third oldest still in use worldwide to exclusively use electric traction (after the City and South London Railway in 1890, and the Budapest Metro’s Line 1 in 1896), opening on September 1, 1897.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Birthday to JPD, Rainshine, and Rilyn Mac.

    Vin Scully died. He was the greatest baseball announcer who ever lived, in my humble opinion. There have been many great ones during my life time, including Curt Gowdy and our very own Ned Martin.

    Saddened by his passing, but he won’t be forgotten as he was so very often the announcer during great moments in baseball history.
    https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1554696167409188864
    https://twitter.com/JomboyMedia/status/1554670908870201344

  10. Thank you for all the birthday wishes. And Happy Birthday to JPD and Rilyn Mac.

    JPD, hope your wife is feeling ok w/all this yuccy weather. I don’t mind a few HHH days in summer but this summer has been brutal. Just waiting for those days w/highs in the 70’s and nice cool dry air. Will be awhile for that, I guess.

    And hoping SSK and wife are feeling better.

  17. Naming Heat Waves (Part 3)

    Apparently the world has seen its first named heat wave … Zoe. I believe this occurred in the last week of July though I am not sure of the actual date.

    The place where it occurred was Seville, Spain, a city which is experimenting with the branding of heat waves. Spain has 3 categories of heat waves with category 3 being the strongest. In fact, only category 3 heat waves in Spain qualify for a name. BTW, Zoe’s high temp was 109F.

    I know that some cities in the US are playing with this too, and I think the first state that could give it a try would be CA. In future posts, we should probably discuss the stated reasons behind this movement. I have read some tortured logic on it (Insert eye roll here).

    1. While I think this is silly since our heat wave parameters are all over the place, Zoe is the name of my brother and sister in law, Sheri, granddaughter. Seems fitting

      1. Actually I saw the next few names so I copied and pasted them below.

        Yago, Xenia, Wenceslao and Vega

        Any family members with those names?

  18. Vicki, Philip, Boston’s public transit subway is famous worldwide, because it’s so darn old. As Vicki pointed out, only London and Budapest are older. I was in Budapest in 2011 and saw several old photographs of Tremont Street in Boston, from when they were constructing the subway. The photo exhibit was in a Budapest subway station. I also saw a similar exhibit in Amsterdam.

      1. The good news, however, is that the heat index has dropped 66º in the past three hours.

        Would this be the “unreal feel”? 🙂

        2. Actually, it went up by 100 degrees in the last 20 minutes. It’s 133 with a dewpoint of 128 for a heat index of 454!

    1. I have read some of that reasoning for sure. I have also read things like how the heat wave of 1911 would have resulted in less deaths if that heat wave had a name. What they failed to mention is that the forms of available communication about the weather in 1911 are a fraction of what they are today.

      It also begs the questions of whether we should name cold waves too. I guess I am not aboard the train yet. Haven’t heard how the NOAA feels about it, but did read that they are lukewarm (pun intended) about adopting this.

      1. All good points. We can surely put 1911 aside as we can any number of storms from decades ago.

        I also agree that the system may not work. Perhaps they think of it as a start. Our globe is in serious trouble. If a country is attempting to prepare, I cannot fault it. I can fault countries that are doing nothing or worse are in denial.

      2. Except for the names of tropical systems, I refuse to acknowledge any of the other names different organizations try to attach to anything. If you have a name for everything, people will either get confused or stop paying attention altogether.

        “Heat Wave Starbuck will continue for another 24 hours, but a hurricane watch has been issued as Hurricane Serina starts heading up the coast. With the heavy rain expected inland, Flood Watch Omega has been issued. Meanwhile, out in the Dakotas, Winter Storm Apollo will bring several inches of snow to the region, followed by Cold Wave Boomer.”

        2. This has to be from a movie I haven’t seen. I’m so deficient in movies it’s laughable. But now that song “Moonlight Feels Right” is stuck in my head. 😉

  23. What an absolutely beautiful summer day today. ☺️

    During the course of my day I had to actually alert people to the fact that today is quite nice. They were thinking otherwise because of what the news told them. Hype comes with a cost. And it also breeds ignorance. 😉

    Instead I got people to focus on the very nice day we’re having today. This is the present. Where we are living. Nothing wrong with being prepared for the coming heat but enjoy the day you have to prepare for it. 🙂

    Looking forward to heading up to the NH Seacoast this evening.

    1. TK, we went for a bike ride in Orleans and Eastham today. Your forecasts from the past few days helped us to pick the best day for it, and it was absolutely wonderful. I don’t do well in humidity, so I’m very grateful for the accurate information!

      1. I’m glad you enjoyed your ride!

        I may seem a bit cranky today and I am, but that’s not as related to media and weather as many think. I was just venting some other frustration like the need for new water heaters and a communication breakdown that was very simple to fix at work. BAHA. I’m good. 🙂 The volcano is dormant again. 😀

        My focus now shifts to finishing my mom’s laundry now that she has hot water and then heading to the NH Seacoast for food, fun, and fireworks. 🙂

    2. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry? Who in heavens name would determine existing weather by listening to media?

      1. And I ask the very same question, but yet there are many who do. I hope they catch on. 🙂

  24. 3:00 p.m. obs …

    A couple areas of snuck to 90 or just over but otherwise temperatures range from the middle 70s to around 80 at the coast and generally up through the 80s over the interior. Dew points are dependent on location and range from the middle 50s to the middle and upper 60s with a highest confined to the South Coast.

    This is not brutally hot and humid weather.

    1. Sea breeze was felt here as well. We only climbed to 83 today at the peak heating. An absolute 10 for today!!!!

          1. Please send me your temp. It’s nasty here. And since I’ve spiked a high fever (I rarely run a fever) with my other three Covid vaccines, I’m hesitant to go outside

            1. 81 here now after being up as high as 83. NICE breeze coming in from the ocean. In fact, I can smell the ocean air!

  25. Re naming a system. It seems that this is not a whim which was my original thought. It is an attempt at a strategy that allows a city to put certain action plans into place depending on the level of an event. The aim is to save lives. Just the most extreme heat cycles receive a name. It is exactly how strategic planning works

    I guess it boils down to two questions.

    Does naming weather events to activate a specific area response in an attempt to address climate change do any harm?

    Does doing nothing to prevent climate change do any harm?

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/zoe-becomes-the-worlds-first-named-heat-wave-180980512/

    1. Like Sak said it will just basically be a circus in my humble opinion. Weather phenomenon’s weren’t meant to be named, again imo.

      Meteorologist should just give a forecast to their audience to the best of their ability. Like you’ve said many times before, it’s the viewer interpretation that’s the important part. I believe naming every phenomenon of weather just hypes every weather forecast. The media loves to hype and I would not be surprised if they go this root for more viewers. I come to this blog for no hype. I hope you understand.

      1. Here’s the bigger issue: Tropical Systems gets named because there is a defined criteria that is accepted worldwide. There is no defined criteria accepted worldwide for a “winter storm” or a “heat wave”, or virtually anything else.

        We consider a heat wave to be 3 consecutive days with temperatures above 90 degrees. Phoenix recently a 4-day stretch where the temperature didn’t drop BELOW 90 degrees. Dallas just had their 19th consecutive day above 100, and 30th in the last 31 days. Three days above 90 is a nice respite from the heat for them.

        A storm that drops 1/2″ of snow will paralyze Atlanta. In this area, it means people drive 70 instead of 80 on 128. Meanwhile, areas downwind of the Great Lakes can pick up 4-8 FEET of snow in the span of 24 hours. The storms that move in from the Pacific in the winter can drop 10 feet of snow on the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. Boston has received more than 9 feet in an entire winter once, never mind 1 storm.

        Don’t even get me started on a “cold wave”. I forecast for radio stations in North Dakota. They will routinely go for a few days without getting above zero, never mind having wind chills of -40 to -60. Meanwhile, in Miami, a “bitterly cold” day in January means that it only got into the 50s, and dropped into the 40s at night.

        The only thing besides tropical systems that have a defined and universally accepted criteria are severe thunderstorms. Naming those is a fool’s errand. This is why naming things beside tropical systems is a dumb idea.

  27. The MBTA’s Orange Line will shut down for 30 days beginning on August 19th.

    Thankfully I don’t rely on it to get to work but I do most times running errands or medical appointments on my day off. Shuttle buses are usually NOT pleasant and are packed.

    Is this “throwing out the baby with the bath water”?

    1. This upcoming shutdown is probably going to make alternate transit more crowded.

      Will this make for a better T? We will see.

      I made a rhyming pun. 🙂

    1. Dreadful…he is now going near 100 for the next two days? And so much for any glimpse of relief over the weekend with temps holding in the 90’s with high humidity.

      We are going to the concert at Fenway Saturday and I am afraid it’s going to be a sweatbox.

  31. Thank you TK and Happy Birthday everyone!

    I am still dying laughing from SAK’s post at 3:31PM, as well as that ASOS report from MS.

  32. Beneficial rain on Friday/Saturday, or more of the same hit or miss stuff? I’m inclined to think the latter.

    Jean, biking in Orleans and Eastham, now that is fun! Love those towns.

    SClarke, thanks for sharing the old video with the MTA song.

    Longshot, I was in Budapest in June of 2011. Maybe our paths did cross. I spent a lot of time on their public transit system, but also did a lot of walking. It was hot; kind of like the weather we had last week. I was also in Budapest in 1989, two months before the Berlin Wall fell. It was early September and also quite hot and humid. The city was more polluted then with all the leaded gas emissions from the East European cars; Skoda’s, Dacia’s, Lada’s, Tatra’s, and Trabants. The air was not only heavy it was filthy. Still, I had a good time. Gossen (East German beer) and goulash were on the menu every day, along with Hungarian (similar to Turkish) coffee.

  33. Down here at Horseneck Beach.

    Nearby New Bedford was in the mid-upper 80s this afternoon and it’s 76F with a dp of 69F now and a light south wind.

    The ocean is nice and warm. I usually can’t get fully in when in Marshfield, but no problem here.

    Nice swells along the south coast, perhaps 2-4 ft today, enough to make being in the water a lot of fun.

    At 4pm, halfway to low tide, the lifeguards did a great job closing a 20 yard ? section of water to swimmers where there was a visible undertow. This followed a swimmer needing some assistance from the life guards in that general vicinity.

  35. Tom, I remember First Encounter Beach well from my childhood. I also remember Sunken Meadow Beach.

    My mother took us to so many places on the Cape.

    I’ve had periodic dreams since my mother’s passing that we’re on the Cape, at, say, an Orleans Cardinals game; the whole family. When I wake up there’s disappointment that the dream wasn’t real, but I’m also glad that I got to `see’ her again.

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