Thursday August 4 2022 Forecast (7:21AM)

105 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

A hot spell is ours for the next 5 days. The hottest day is likely to be today, and there were be locations that catch some breaks from the heat, though the humidity is going to reside in the high category for most of us for the entire period, only knocked down almost unnoticed when a weakening cold front comes through the region late Friday and washes out over the region early in the weekend. Overall, there are no real changes to yesterday’s ideas. I’ve wrestled with the idea of whether or not thunderstorms from NY would reach the northwestern WHW forecast area later today, and yesterday I took them out of my forecast, but today I have to include the chance that one or two make it there this evening. Not looking for any severe storms, just remnant activity. Friday carries our greatest thunderstorm potential with the approach of the frontal boundary, which then diminishes to only widely scattered Saturday and isolated for Sunday as that boundary washes out over the region, but the approach of another front from the northwest by Monday increase the chance again later that day, based on current expected timing.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower and brief thunder southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late afternoon. Highs 90-97 except below 90 along the South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon. Highs 85-92, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 86-93, coolest southern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

The front that approaches late August 8 may take the entirety of August 9 to pass through so there will be a shower and thunderstorm chance that day. High pressure moves in with fair and warm but lower humidity weather August 10-11 before the humidity and thunderstorm chances increase later in the period, at least briefly. Watching for a possible push of drier air from the north at the very end of the period, but low confidence on that right now.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

A few hints starting to show up that we may see some pattern retrogression, putting the high pressure and hot weather back toward the middle of the US. If this takes place, the door may open to drier and somewhat cooler air from eastern Canada. Either way, rainfall pattern looks below normal allowing drought to continue.

105 thoughts on “Thursday August 4 2022 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  1. Thanks Tk . It’s days like today that I do not miss working outside , but I do love this weather.

  3. WBZ anchor…

    “The heatwave continues today in Boston.”

    No it doesn’t, Boston’s high yesterday was 81.

    “The humidity that we experience in the coming days will be unheard of.”

    No it won’t. We’ve had this many many many times over the years, decades, and centuries.

          1. There ya go. We all know exactly what corporate does. I can guarantee that this anchor would be fired if he/she didn’t play the game. I’d be a whole lot happier if focus were on the cause

  7. Thanks TK

    Question. Is it only a heat wave if the location of the record keeping sensor doesn’t hit 90.

        1. Yes.
          But only if it’s an official climate site. Otherwise it’s an “unofficial” heat wave 😉

  8. Mt Washington summit at 64F.

    On the auto road sensors, at 3,300 ft, it’s 82.8F !!!!!

    71.7F at 1,600 ft at the base.

  11. To me, the heat index is a strange animal. I think the weather reports misuse it. I’m sure that people misinterpret those maps with the bright red colors and big numbers well over 100.

    Here is an NWS discussion of heat index.
    https://www.weather.gov/ama/heatindex

    I understand that it is meant to be a measure of the effect on our bodies of a combination of air temperature and relative humidity. But wouldn’t it make more sense if it were on a completely different scale than the temperature?

    For example, from the chart, a temperature of 94 and a relative humidity of 45 would “feel” the same as a temperature of 86 and a relative humidity of 80. That makes sense. But, why is this called 100 degrees? What are the conditions under which you would feel the same if the temperature were 100?

    Sorry if this is confusing – maybe the heat index is already taking its toll on my brain!

    1. I don’t quite understand the heat index either. Or possibly wind chill. To me an actual temperature says enough. I know 90 or 93 or 95 is hot. I cannot tell the difference between the two. One reason I also feel it doesn’t make a lot of sense to focus on a number.

      And perhaps between the reaction to Covid vax 4 and heat has gotten to me too and I completely misunderstood your comment.

      1. I think it’s the ability to cool off through evaporation, like on certain days when you immediately feel cool coming out of water and other days you don’t.

        98F with a 55F dew point. It’s hot, but when you sweat, that lower dp and thus humidity in the air will allow for evaporation and a natural cooling.

        Without having the table open, I’d bet 88F and a 75F dew point would have a much higher heat indice because that dp means with so much more humidity in the air, your sweat wouldn’t evaporate and you could not cool off because of that.

        1. And thus unfortunately, as hot as the number may be on the thermometer today, I think tomorrow has the opportunity to feel a lot worse even though it may be 3-5F cooler on the thermometer for temp.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    SClarke, I don’t understand the heat index, either.

    I’m not that fond of wind chill index, either, by the way, though it intuitively makes more sense.

    1. I agree. To me the wind chill says that for exposed skin, the combination of the current temperature and wind speed lose body heat at the same rate as some lower temperature with no wind.

      It’s the equivalent of the “with no wind” condition that I am looking for when talking about the heat index. Is there some humidity level at which temperature = heat index? Some of the entries in the upper left of the NWS table I linked to show that. But it still seems off to me.

  13. Back to yesterday’s discussion about naming things beside tropical systems, I posted this late last night, but most probably missed. TK agreed with it completely though:

    Tropical Systems gets named because there is a defined criteria that is accepted worldwide. There is no defined criteria accepted worldwide for a “winter storm” or a “heat wave”, or virtually anything else.

    We consider a heat wave to be 3 consecutive days with temperatures above 90 degrees. Phoenix recently a 4-day stretch where the temperature didn’t drop BELOW 90 degrees. Dallas just had their 19th consecutive day above 100, and 30th in the last 31 days. Three days above 90 is a nice respite from the heat for them.

    A storm that drops 1/2″ of snow will paralyze Atlanta. In this area, 1/2″ of snow means people drive 70 instead of 80 on 128. Meanwhile, areas downwind of the Great Lakes can pick up 4-6 FEET of snow in the span of 24 hours. without a storm nearby. The storms that move in from the Pacific in the winter can drop 10 feet of snow on the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. Boston has received more than 9 feet in an entire winter once, never mind 1 storm.

    Don’t even get me started on a “cold wave”. I forecast for radio stations in North Dakota. They will routinely go for a few days without getting above zero, never mind having wind chills of -40 to -60. Meanwhile, in Miami, a “bitterly cold” day in January means that it only got into the 50s, and dropped into the 40s at night.

    The only thing besides tropical systems that have a defined and universally accepted criteria are severe thunderstorms. Naming those is a fool’s errand. This is why naming things beside tropical systems is a dumb idea.

    2. This makes complete sense to me.

      Of course, maybe we shouldn’t be so negative in our naming of weather phenomena. How about String of Nearly Average Temperature Days “Norm” or Puffy Animal Clouds Day “Pooh?”

  14. Thanks, TK.

    I believe naming tropical systems is ok. But when they started naming winter storms, I thought it was crazy. What next – tornadoes, heat waves, etc.? SAK is right re: naming tropical storms as they are a defined criteria. But other weather issues goes a bit far, in my opinion. The weather is not an animal or vegetable issue ( in today’s crazy world, I hope not!) – it is the weather and is so variable.

    1. I’d absolutely agree I’d this were recommended as a universal system. I just don’t think one city in the world can be faulted for trying to bring awareness in order to save lives.

  17. I of course disagree.

    What I believe is being missed is that this is one city in one country. No one anywhere has suggested that this become universally adopted.

    Seville is attempting to find a way to avoid the 500 plus deaths the heat wave caused to its neighbors…silent killers. Is it perfect? Probably not? However, SAK, you did perfectly illustrate a need for regional definitions for weather events as well as worldwide definitions when you mentioned Atlanta. That is exactly what we are debating. Not once was there a mention of this becoming a worldwide criteria.

    As far as how we define a heat wave….not only do different areas of our country defining heat wave different heat wave criteria; but we learned yesterday that different countries define heatwaves in different ways dependent on both temperature and length of time at that temperature. The “we” you referred to is the United States. If other countries have different heat wave parameters…as they surely should, who are we to tell them they cannot also have different warning methods or to criticize them for trying to mitigate deaths?

    I’m not sure anyone read that article from the Smithsonian. Seville is not naming every heat wave. It is simply naming the worst….the ones similar to the the heat wave that recently killed over 500 people.

    What I’m not seeing an answer to are the two questions I asked???

    1. Here’s the problem with one city doing this. What if neighboring cities don’t. Someone moves to Seville, and has no idea about this, and doesn’t understand it. Or the other way around, someone moves from Seville to Madrid, it gets really hot, but there’s no name, so they think “well, it can’t be that bad then.” This is why tropical systems were first named – there is a defined criteria for what is basically the worst of the storms. If you start doing things regionally or locally, you get all sorts of problems.

      1. I can’t fictionalization what could happen when I know they are trying to stop deaths of hundreds from something that did happen.

        I cannot agree with dictating what a city in another country tried to do to avoid deaths.

        I am still not seeing an answer to my questions.

  20. BTW, according to the AMS Glossary of Meteorology, a Heat Wave is officially defined as:

    (Also called hot wave, warm wave.) A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather.

    To be a heat wave such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks. In 1900, A. T. Burrows more rigidly defined a “hot wave” as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F. More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region. In the eastern United States, heat waves generally build up with southerly winds on the western flank of an anticyclone centered over the southeastern states, the air being warmed by passage over a land surface heated by the sun.

    https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Heat_wave

      1. AMS is the American Meteorological Society, who originally created it. However, it has been adopted by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) as the official worldwide glossary, so your argument is invalid.

        1. Argument? I asked a question. I did read the criteria a few times however.

          The definition is vague as it should be based on this comment “ More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region.”

          Perhaps you would care to answer my other two questions?

        2. I was recently looking for the WMO definition, but never found it. Do you have a link to it?

          I did find things like this from sites other than the WMO, which could be outdated:
          “No formal, standardized definition of a heat wave exists. The World Meteorological Organization defines it as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more.”

              1. I thought these are interesting links. Not really related to the discussion but still interesting

                Links are in reverse order as I backed out of each page to get links.

                And as proof of my inability to remember acronyms. I thought you’d mistyped WMO and meant WHO. 🙄

                https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/natural-hazards-and-disaster-risk-reduction

                https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/weather

                https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/weather/weather-forecast

  22. A stratus low cloud deck has come ashore at Horseneck Beach. It has occasional breaks in the cloud deck.

    Reduced the strong sun to a hazy sun.

    The water is so warm. 🙂

  25. The 12z GFS giveth and taketh away.

    Monday, a small high to our northeast, the GFS offers a back door front into northeast mass and down to Boston for a reprieve.

    Taketh away: it offers very hot temps Sunday and now Tuesday.

    Let’s see the trend the next 24-48 hrs for possible back door relief Monday and if it’s now going to be very hot Tuesday.

      1. Technically, with such a light wind tomorrow, Logan could end up just shy of 90F.

        But this won’t be like Wednesday. 2 miles inland will probably make the 90s and with higher humidity and little ventilation, I think tomorrow will feel brutal.

    1. Joshua – Are you getting any readings from your hygrometer door yet? I will have to check ours here at the historical society in a few days.

    1. So much better Vick she’s cooking dinner now . Son tested positive last night but has no symptoms at all & is down in the basement jamming as we speak .

  34. SClarke, the door you’re referring to is open and I’ve had to latch it with a lock to ensure it stays open as people want to close it. But, the humidity is high and the door frame will break if we open and close the door. Luckily, it’s NOT the door leading outside. It’s a second door after a vestibule.

  37. I find it odd many places posting signs saying closed during the heat wave. Modern times for sure.

    1. That’s actually nothing new.
      Back around the time you were born there were just a lot fewer businesses but believe me a lot of them would close for extreme heat.

      The only way to shorten the winter by the way is moving to a place that has a shorter winter. 😉

      Texas has a shorter winter but by only a handful of weeks. There’s also still a lot of open space there. But at the rate people are moving out of New England to places like that you better hurry!

  39. Just got back from 4 glorious days up in North Conway doing the Story Land thing. Kids had a blast and the weather was perfect.

  40. And so it begins…

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
    328 PM AKDT Thu Aug 4 2022

    AKZ206-051500-
    /O.NEW.PAFG.WS.A.0011.220806T0500Z-220807T0600Z/
    Northeastern Brooks Range-
    Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon,
    and Franklin Bluffs
    328 PM AKDT Thu Aug 4 2022

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
    SATURDAY EVENING…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
    Total snow accumulations of 8 inches are possible above 3000
    feet, with 2 to 4 inches from 2000 to 3000 feet.

    * WHERE…Northeastern Brooks Range above 2000 feet.

    * WHEN…From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Significant reductions in visibility are
    possible. Rain will develop Friday and change to snow late
    Friday night. Snow will continue through Saturday evening before
    tapering off. Snow will be heavy at times with low visibility.
    This will make travel on the Dalton Highway over Atigun Pass
    difficult from late friday night through Saturday night.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
    snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
    to monitor the latest forecasts.

    2. We leave for Seattle next Friday the 12th and then for Alaska on our Norwegian cruise Sunday the 14th through the 21st. Basically the exact same trip you did in June.

      Long range GFS looks decent in Seattle but very cool and unsettled in much of southeast Alaska. Hopefully that pattern lets up a bit and we can get a few decent days in there. Would suck to be cloudy , showery, and in the 50s every day like it looks there this week (although after all this heat, I could deal with a few days in the 50s)

      1. I could settle for 420″ of snow a year but we would have to fly to New Orleans or Miami for the really deep stuff.

    1. Me, too. I’m back to being in a total daze. It’s like I’m on Percocet or something (an opioid you sometimes get after getting teeth extracted or an operation of some sort), except without the pain relief.

      1. Took Percocet once when I had a massive infection. I was in some other galaxy.

        Im still fuzzy from my fourth covid vax yesterday so understand

  44. Does anyone remember just a couple short days ago when our friend the GFS had 100-106 degree high temps for Aug 4 (too hot) and temps falling to the 60s for today (Aug 5)? Umm, NOPE! Didn’t buy it then either. 😉

    Knowing model weaknesses can be rather helpful in meteorology.

    FWIW, on the 00z GFS, I think its temp forecast is “ok” for today through Sunday, possibly a bit high for Monday, but after that it plunges us into the 50s and 60s for the middle of next week, forecasting some areas to be 40 degrees colder Tuesday than they are Monday. My guess is some of those forecast will be as much as 20 degrees in error, possibly even greater. That is a guide that will lead you down a path that ends up in a place you don’t want to be, forecast-wise. I guess we’ll see. 😉

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