Saturday August 6 2022 Forecast (8:57AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

A short update today to start your weekend. Basically more of the same for our area this weekend and to start the week with a weak zonal flow aloft and a Bermuda High in place – classic summertime pattern for heat and humidity and daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The percentage chance and coverage of activity today and Sunday will be a little lower than yesterday, but still that doesn’t mean that areas that were missed by yesterday’s activity could not be hit by something today and/or Sunday. It’s just a hit and miss kind of thing that we don’t really know until there are storms developed, and then we can track in real time. So if you have weekend outdoor plans, don’t cancel them for rain / lightning risk, but be very weather-aware not only for these possibilities, but the certainty of the danger from higher heat and humidity. Stay out of direct sun when possible, use sun screen, and most importantly, stay hydrated! A cold front presses closer to the region Monday and probably moves into and slowly through the region Tuesday when our shower and thunderstorm chances go up again. This at least brings some chance of a more widespread beneficial rainfall event for the region, although one such event will not be a drought buster. These can set the table for better relief if a more promising rainfall pattern follows it, and I can’t promise that at this point. Beyond Tuesday, there is some possibility that the front may be slow enough to allow a wave of low pressure to bring additional shower activity to the region Wednesday, but confidence is lower on this. One thing I am pretty sure of is that by then, the heatwave will be a memory.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-89. Dew point around 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

High pressure pushes in during the period with mostly dry weather expected for much of the period, more seasonable temperatures as well, and lower humidity at least for the first part of the period before it may increase again. The very end of the period may feature unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

A little more opening up of air flow from Canada may allow one or two pushes of cooler/drier air, but still low confidence on this at this point.

78 thoughts on “Saturday August 6 2022 Forecast (8:57AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I watched ch 4 a lot for the Bruce – Jack Williams transition talks, in which I felt they were always trying to antagonize each other and the Liz Walker – Bob Lobel transition talks, which were hilarious.

    I liked Bruce’s temp zones: cold-cool-mild etc. I don’t know why, always got a chuckle out of that.

    3. I was very sad to hear he passed as well. For me as a kid his forecasts along with many other mets around here was appointment television.

  6. Thanks TK.

    A Tuesday thirst buster? A Wednesday washout?

    All Logan received was a lousy 0.08” yesterday. I believe my neighborhood did considerably better. At least it looked like it based on the downpour.

    1. I think Boston’s final 90° day of the stretch will be Monday.

      The whole Wednesday thing is a very low confidence forecast because I have seen time and time again guidance going for something like this only for it not to take place. There is a little bit of a difference in that there is more moisture and a nice slow moving boundary involved but that is not enough to convince me it happens yet.

            1. It can be. 2/3 of the month occurs in summer. 🙂

              1983 was extreme but is an example of just how hot we can be.

  7. No doubt the current hot spell will break next week.

    I feel like the GFS had some head scratching runs lately for the medium and long range, including one run with a 594 dm ridge over eastern Quebec.

    But it’s 00z run seems better, I think. It looks a little more believable.

    Considering Boston’s avg high falls from 80 to 77 from mid August to the end, I kind of think the 2nd half of the month will continue to feature mostly above normal temps. Whether that’s days of low-mid 80s or yet another heat wave, we’ll have to see the trends in the models the next 7 days.

    CFS weeklies for now projecting above avg temps in the northeast the entire month, if I am reading them correctly.

    1. Once in a while the GFS will sneak a better run in there but in general lately beyond day three the medium range guidance has been even more abysmal than I’m used to seeing it. I always take this fact into account when I am forecasting.

      I still feel there are too many people who talk in absolutes about things more than a few days away when we just can’t do that based on me information we have.

      1. Indeed !

        Your patience and ability to analyze what the models project is outstanding and to stay the course on a general medium and long range outlook is very noticeable.

  9. The latest 8-14 day CPC outlook has near normal precipitation for us. Let’s hope that verifies. We have to start “somewhere”.

    Of course continued hot temps. Oh well.

    1. They have been forecasting near to above normal precipitation pretty much all along.

      Just a couple of their outlooks have been drier.

      The thing with summertime though is you can have a spot like yesterday that got two inches of rain and they end up above normal for July but still dry because it all fell at once.

      We really cannotb easily generalize in the summer time, and if we do there are asterisks all over the place. There are so many differences from one place to the next and we have to take that into account.

      An event like yesterday will not break a drought.

      And I don’t find much hope in a CPC forecast that hasn’t really been that great anyway.

    1. Thanks Joshua. I remember watching that very broadcast. We could sure use an “Opal” in 2022. 🙂

      Isn’t 80 the average lifespan these days? My father passed away at 76. Now I call that “young”.

  13. Unlike yesterday, today’s activity should develop a little later, occur mainly north of I-90, and the cell movement will probably be more to the northeast versus the southeast motion of yesterday’s perpetuating cells.

    Tomorrow, my inkling is more isolated activity but slower-moving and more west to east, with more high & mid level cloudiness being generated so we may eventually end up cloudier than we will today. Not sure if that will have an impact on high temps but possibly. It may occur after max heating.

  14. Sadly, this lightning strike killed 3 people out of 4 who made one of the greatest mistakes of all in a storm – seeking shelter from rain under a tree during a thunderstorm.

    There was no surprise on this. There was frequent cloud to ground lightning already occurring for a while before the fatal strike occurred. Sad that lives had to be lost to remind us this is not a good idea.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLkDvqncPKw

    This video also is an example of another myth believed by many, that lightning always hits the tallest object around. Wrong. Lightning hits the object that had the stepped leader connect with the upward streamer. This tree was surrounded by taller trees, but was hit anyway. You can’t use that myth to your advantage either. I’m sad people lost their lives, but I really hope that at least some reminding and education will result and others will not do this.

    1. I was taught at a very young age to NEVER, EVER stand underneath a tree during a thunderstorm. And my parents continued to pound it into my head during my teen and college years. I’m surprised that elderly couple forgot that.

      1. Sometimes in desperation, reasoning goes out the window. Most of the time, we get away with it. Sadly, sometimes we do not.

    2. Just tragic.

      I had a long discussion with a woman where we boarded my oldest pony. She insisted the horses could stay our during a lightning storm. Shelter under a tree is typical for a horse and they have metal shoes.

  15. Sorry to hear about Bruce Schwoegler. Back in the 80’s, my husband and I belonged to a local amateur radio club (Framingham) and as activities officer I got Bruce to talk to us at a meeting. He will be missed.

        1. Thank you for asking. More like me. I’d forgotten GI issues go along with my vaccines. I hope you are well. I know you and your husband have been struggling with some health issues

            1. Oh no. Please don’t be sorry. Not sick. Just reacting to the Covid vaccine. The more I have, the less severe the reaction. They just last longer. Not bad at all. Just a nuisance.

              How are your wife and son?

  18. One of the funnier memories of Bruce is the time he showed up at the private company I used to work for (he knew a lot of the people there) in a beat up VW Rabbit with a towel stuffed into the spot that the gas cap should have been. 😉

    I did not see it myself, but the account by my coworkers was hilarious. Just the image it gives. 🙂

  19. Thanks TK.

    Bone dry with not a drop here yesterday. Grass is brown and crusty.

    We are leaving shortly for Fenway to sweat it out at the Def Leppard/Motley Crue concert.

    SAK – how was the show yesterday?

    1. Mostly great, as long as you ignore the overweight guy with a microphone mumbling along while the rest of Motley Crue played.

      1. Lol, I heard Vince Neil was a train wreck. Fortunately he’s got back up singers and the rest of the stadium to sing the songs for him.

        I am having a half yard IPA at the Yard House right now. One more of these and it won’t matter what he sounds like 🙂

  20. Too bad Bruce’s career at WBZ ended so abruptly. Iirc he didn’t really have a chance to at least say “goodbye” on air to his many viewers.

    The same happened to Mark Rosenthal on Ch. 5 iirc.

    Was it around 1999 or 2000? Sometime like that for Bruce?

  21. Does anyone’s town still permit watering? We were banned a week or so ago. Uxbridge just announced a stage 3 and banned watering. Our neighborhood has water supplied by the neighboring town so I’m not sure about all of Sutton. I believe there are many private wells. Uxbridge has town wells and their aquifer is quite low.

      1. We tried that but between the mosquitoes and skunks, it was a bit dicey. All that aside, there are just too many lawn areas. We do of course water the veggie garden but even that is struggling. I am sure it is our sand base.

        I hope you can get enough water in your lawn

    1. I mentioned the break next week to my oldest and she was upset it was ending. I know she is my daughter….I was there when she was born….but not sure where I went wrong along the way 😉 😉 😉

        1. Haha. Very true. I was one of them when I was younger. Just harder to tolerate in the past couple of years. But she is not a fan of cold

  23. Joshua – to answer your question yesterday:

    Boston has hit 100 or higher 27 times in the 150 years of record keeping, 17 times since the readings were moved to Logan in 1936, only 8 times in the last 50 years.

    Boston has hit 0 or lower 152 times in the 150 years of record keeping, 74 times since the readings were moved to Logan in 1936, only 41 times in the last 40 years.

  24. The Atlantic may be starting to wake up:

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
    tonight and early Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to
    be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
    westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
    and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of
    next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

  26. Boy it’s a hot one here in pembroke today & currently sitting at 93 . I’m sitting on my front farmers porch enjoying it as this does not bother me at all . I’m not a cold weather person . Hope folks struggling ( Mrs old salty ) do get relief soon as I do feel for those folks as this can really take a toll on them . Thanks for the forecast Tk .

  28. The water temp is 80, the dew point is 77F, the air temp is 87F with a heat index near 100F and it’s clear here at the ocean, but looking over land I see beautiful towering thunderheads.

    Where am I ? Coastal Florida ?? 🙂

    Nope, coastal Massachusetts ……..

  29. Storms or a storm surrounding Sudbury right now. Occasional thunder w/many clouds – very picturesque. Sun out at this moment. I think we might miss this storm – maybe we’ll get one later. Today’s storms seem to be occurring in about the same place they did yesterday, if I am correct.

      1. Thanks – if we do it would be pretty brief. Radar shows storm weakened and may stay just west of us but part of it might give us some rain. Trees and vegetation would like the rain, brief as it might be.

  30. I think temps have overachieved today.

    Lot more sun than I had thought and maybe the drought is showing today ??

    1. Tom it’s pretty hot down here today & I’m pretty impressed. It’s an absolute scorcher today

  31. Looking at the weather bug 10 day High temp could be 89 on Tuesday , so it’s possible that maybe we could see 90 straight through Tuesday but I’ll leave that to the experts here .

  32. So sorry to hear the news. My one Bruce Schwoegler story is when I was in high school a girlfriend briefly dated his son – I think his name was Matt? – and she went over to their house for dinner with his parents. There was an awkward pause in the conversation so my friend – without thinking – went to the standard “talk about the weather” and asked “so does anyone happen tomknow what the weather is going to be like tomorrow?” Then – as any 16 year old would – she wanted to crawl under the table in embarrassment. That story always makes me smile.

    1. Hi Mama. I sure know how I’d feel at that age. Isn’t It wonderful how that type of story ends up being a cherished memory.

  33. Intense heat now expected through Monday which will make it a 5-day heatwave. Sigh. 🙁

    I truly hope next weekend at this time will feel considerably better. We will see.

  34. SAK, I appreciate you answering my question on the number of times Boston has hit 100F v. 0F. Amazing data that you found.

    However much I’m not a fan of heat, I find the weather in Boston incredibly interesting. So much variation and variability, extremes, four distinct seasons, etc … Never a dull period, quite frankly.

    1. Just don’t try to tell JP Dave that an east wind, a stratus overcast, and 45 degrees in April is interesting. 😉

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