Sunday August 7 2022 Forecast (8:07AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

The hot and humid spell goes on for another 2 days, and then we lose the heat but keep the humidity Tuesday through Thursday as a frontal boundary moves slowly into and across the region from north to south. Today and Monday will feature the air mass pop up style showers and thunderstorms which will be mostly isolated and occur mostly during the afternoon to early evening. The shower and thunderstorm threat goes up with greater coverage expected Tuesday and Wednesday. A wave of low pressure on the frontal boundary has the potential to enhance the activity so we got a shot of beneficial and much-needed rainfall on Wednesday. After this, the question becomes how quickly will we see improvement, with Thursday being a day of uncertainty. If the boundary is slow enough, we get a day dominated by cloud coverage and additional shower chances. If it clears the region a little more quickly, we dry out more quickly. I’m slightly leaning toward the slower scenario for now but with low confidence, and fine-tuning will definitely be needed in the days ahead…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms can be locally strong to severe with wind damage being the greatest threat. Highs 88-95 except 81-88 some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH but some east coastal sea breezes possible. Variable winds with moderate to strong gusts possible around any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point around 70. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

High pressure builds in with cooler, drier weather to start the period, seasonably warm and dry weather for the August 13-14 weekend, then the high pushes offshore with an increase in humidity and possibly shower chances early in the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

Still leaning toward a little more up and down with temperature, zonal flow pattern but allowances of cooler / drier air to come down out of Canada. Despite upcoming rain chances, not seeing a longer-term wetter pattern to end the ongoing drought, but will continue to watch for this.

98 thoughts on “Sunday August 7 2022 Forecast (8:07AM)”

  3. According to Dave Epstein, Tuesday will still be 90 or more from Boston south. He said that specifically.

    1. According my analysis, I do not agree with Mr. Epstein at the moment. 🙂

      It’s certainly possible, but I’m going to keep them under 90 in my forecast.
      To be honest, with a dew point near 70, 88 vs 90 will be essentially the same.
      The 90 is only glamorous because it adds another day to the heatwave. Eh…
      Media eats that stuff up.

    3. I love Dave Epstein’s delivery:

      “Yeah, it’s been hot. You don’t need me to tell you that.”

      “This frontal system back here eventually will put an end to this nonsense.”

      1. Love it. I have not followed him as much as I do Pete and Eric. But I’m really enjoying his quirkiness and have started to read him a bit more.

  5. Don’t be totally surprised if a pseudo back-door boundary comes down the coast Monday night into Tuesday and causes some forecast adjustments to NH Seacoast and northeastern MA and possibly as far south as Boston.

    1. 12z HRRR has Portland, ME at 68F and Logan at 97F tomorrow at 2pm. As you point out, this will probably be an adjusting temp forecast in the areas you detailed.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Now, for the first time in my life, this heat is affecting me!
    I feel physically off for sure.

    All I can say is YUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    OFF with the Heat and Humidity! I am DONE with IT!!!

    2. I am sorry to hear this. I am not sure if it is my latest vaccine or heat and am suspecting a combination. But I walked across the yard yesterday and had an asthma flare up. I’ve never had that happen and that would be solely heat/DP related.

      I thought of Mrs OS at the time and many who cannot tolerate the heat.

      1. Sorry to hear. This heat and humidity is taking a tool.

        My wife and I aren’t spring chickens any more and it is getting to us. My wife has always been seriously affected by this weather and now I am beginning to get affected as well. No where nearly as severely as my wife, but it is happening! Thankfully we have a couple of rooms air conditioned, but are feeling trapped in those rooms!

        We we go out into the rest of the house, it feels like we are going to die. IT is that bad. Not at heat of the day
        and indoor temp is 89 in the non-AC rooms.

        Rooting fora BD or even psuedo back door. Any kind of relief!

  8. Certainly, cooler air is more dense and can spread at a low level far beyond its upper level support ……

    Pretty decent western flow tomorrow into far northern New England aloft at 500 mb.

    Weak bubble of high pressure pretty far to the north.

    I can see Portland, ME getting back door relief tomorrow. I’ll be really impressed if that gets to Logan though. That’s a lot to ask that narrow layer of cool air to oooze southward without any support aloft for a hundred or more miles.

    1. Maybe an outflow boundary from thunderstorms in southern ME/NH could give it that final push to get to Boston ……

  9. 88F, 72F dp at Logan at 10am.

    Heat index: 95F

    It’s cloudier here, New Bedford reporting 83, with a dp of 75F.

  10. If you know Dave Epstein beyond his weather world, you know a fascinating, very smart man, with endless ambition. With the amount of things he willingly puts on his plate, I wonder if sleep is part of his schedule. 😉

    As far as his TV stuff in Boston goes… He is a favorite of mine.

      2. Once in a while. 😉

        Last night I pulled off what very few people would even care to try and that was a large fireworks display at Newburyport at 9:15 p.m., packing up and walking to the car and navigating my way out of there and over to Salisbury Beach in time to be toes in the water for a 10:15 fireworks display. Haha!

      1. He definitely has a lot of weather wisdom to share and I’m sure other wisdom in his life outside of weather. A very smart and friendly guy.

      1. One of our window ads that is only a few years old is struggling similar to a couple of weeks ago where it stops blowing cold air for a little while at a time.

        1. Is it second floor or first? My SIL said if you can get to it, you can do a light cold water drizzle on the coil. Nothing more than very light or you’d damage it. Turn it off first of course

          Please don’t hesitate to message me on FB if you have questions first though

          He’s been watering our condenser regularly.

    2. Now if we can warm up our winters we will be good. I like cool winters but not the really cold temperatures and I like some snow but not alot of snow.

      Hoping everyone is staying cool and hydrated.

      1. With winters with less snow, I wonder if Boston could beat Worcester more often for seasonal snowfall. Hmmmm? 😉

        1. We’re in one of the snowiest regimes in a long time, since the 1990s. Snowfall is not trending down in Boston.

  16. 12z GFS is showing rain and upper 50’s and low 60’s next Saturday. We have seen it it play that trick before.

  18. 1,000 ft Worcester airport with 90F or a bit higher 4 days in a row !!!!!!!!

    No cheap ones at Logan. I believe it’s 98F, 95F, 97F and 97F so far today.

      1. I think so.

        At Logan, tomorrow’s thing that could stop it is a back door front and Tuesday is cloud cover/showers and storms keeping it under 90F.

  19. TK indicates it in his forecast and it’s showing on the 12z models. The 90s will be ending after Monday or Tuesday, but it might be til Friday to get some under 60F dew points in here.

      2. They can come at the same time. If the jet stream were going to make a sharp NW to SE push through New England, you’d get cooler temps and much drier air simultaneously.

        In this instance, it’s slightly lower heights at 500mb that allows a weak front to sag south over us and produce clouds and showers that lower the sfc temps. The temps above us will still be very warm Wednesday.

        On Thursday and Friday, if a cutoff low forms to our west, that will keep New England under SW flow with humid conditions.

        The good news may be increased opportunity for rain Tues-Thursday. By rain, I mean many periods of showers and possibly thundershowers.

    1. Very quiet season thus far.

      It will activate but I believe finish near or quieter than normal.

  23. convection, convection. Who has convection. No one near the city, that’s for sure. Looks like another swing and a miss this time around.

  26. I’m hearing news outlets and social media beginning to pound that the summer of 2022 is knocking on the door of 1983. I think it’s just for click bate and eye balls but that my opinion.

  27. And now for something completely different: Picture from today of my daughter, who is camping on the Isle of Skye where it’s – per usual – cool/cold and rainy. https://imgur.com/a/bfBJCRH

    She loves it, by the way. At this point, I could definitely imagine myself there, with a Glenfiddich, watching the fog, the emerald landscape (no lack of rain there), the rugged and barren terrain.

      1. I think you mean Fairbanks, Alaska. AL refers to Alabama, where it definitely never snows in August. But, even in Fairbanks, Alaska it’s not snowing this weekend. Due further north, and in the higher elevations (>3000 feet) they did get snow and may get a bit more this week.

  28. Quick sports note. Pedro Martinez was an exceptional pitcher. But, he’s also an exceptionally bright person. Insightful, articulate. He now says he doesn’t “see where the path is leading for the Red Sox.” Needless to say, I don’t either. Bloom should be fired for allowing it to get this bad. The roster is not only poorly constructed, there is no future in it whatsoever. I’m beyond baffled why Bloom didn’t take decisive action to sell at the deadline and start rebuilding the team. Now, the team is left with lots of deadwood, players they’re not going to resign or simply can’t, and gaping holes throughout the team (none of which are easy to fix; but some, like an improved bullpen, could have been addressed at the deadline (trading JD Martinez, Eovaldi, etc …). To field a last place team with the kind of payroll they have is inexcusable. And, this year it’s going to get much worse than simply a last place finish; the Sox will struggle to win 75 games this year and could wind up only winning 70.

    1. Last thing I’ll say on this topic is encapsulated by this tweet: https://twitter.com/GlobeChadFinn/status/1556372833202327557

      Sox released JBJ, but kept Jarren Duran – a man who can’t travel with the team to Canada because he refuses to be vaccinated, he can’t hit, he can’t field, and and he lost track of a fly ball before totally giving up on the play (one of the most unprofessional plays in Red Sox history).

        1. Wouldn’t go that far. I think the current front office has done a fantastic job overall: 4 championships since 2004 is quite an accomplishment. But, I think the team has become rudderless under Bloom. Did well last year, but I think that was a fluke in some ways and not so much Bloom’s doing. I am quite worried about the future. I don’t think this team will even be competitive for several years.

  30. Evening everyone, haven’t been posting as of late, been very busy but it seems like you all been getting plenty of summer heat. Seems you all are actually having much hotter temperatures than I have down here in the Caribbean. Been in the high 80s for the most part with humidity making it feel like the high 90s at times.

    Anyway, a tropical wave has just moved off the coast of Africa and the models are all over the place. Also apparently there is a recon mission going on off the coast of Africa. Has this happened before or is this new???
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

  31. NWS has extended Heat Advisory until Tuesday evening. They might as well continue it until Thursday and get it over with.

    1. They don’t need one for Wednesday and Thursday. The question we have is the timing of the frontal passage on Tuesday to determine how warm it will be that day.

      Wednesday & Thursday are not an issue with hot temps.

  37. One single lonely drop in south Sutton while I was out taking a picture of the rainbow created by someone else’s rain!

    1. The same rainbow situation here in Lunenburg. I did my best by grilling outside, but still only got a few drops.

    1. 00z NAM follows suit. It’s temps are lower, low-mid 90s, but it’s dps are in the low-mid 70s, so it’s Tuesday heat indices project from 98 – 104F in southern New England on Tuesday.

      500mb heights on both models Tuesday still at 588dm and 850 mb temps at 20c.

      Hard to cool off if that verifies.

      1. Let me think of a reply

        ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️

Comments are closed.