Monday August 8 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)

154 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

Our hot weather stretch is nearing its end with 2 more days to go of 90+ (for most). While the Bermuda High continues to provide the heat and humidity, there may be a sneak-preview of the coming cooler air when a back-door front sneaks down the coast of Maine and NH to about Cape Ann MA tonight into Tuesday before being pushed back to the north. So for several hours, the temperatures in those areas can be quite different than much of the rest of the region. This frontal boundary may enhance the development of the air mass showers and storms that will be forming here and there later today, if any should be in that region, so keep an eye out for that. On Tuesday, our final push of heat comes just ahead of an approaching cold front, which will initiate a more widespread batch of showers and thunderstorms for the region in the afternoon and evening hours. We’ll have to watch for any of these to be strong to locally severe. As this boundary passes, it’s going to open the door to cooler air for midweek, but as is typical for an early to mid August cold front, the humidity is not going to just vanish. That will remain rather high for a couple days, and with the front coming to a halt just to the south before starting to dissipate, a little low pressure wave coming along it may result in some beneficial shower activity, at least for the South Coast region, mainly Wednesday afternoon and night based on current timing. I think this should pull out of the region by early Thursday, and we’ll have a nice, mild to warm but moderately humid summer day on that day. Another frontal boundary will deliver drier air to the region by Friday, which also looks like a fair weather day at this time, but much cooler than the week will start out.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, any of which can be on the stronger side. Highs 90-97, except 83-90 South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75 except 61-68 NH Seacoast in northeastern MA. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s except lower to middle 60s northeastern MA to NH Seacoast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, strongest South Coast, except NE up to 10 MPH northeastern MA and NH Seacoast.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which may be strong to locally severe. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast. Dew point around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except variable under 10 MPH early NH Seacoast and northeastern MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early, mainly South Coast. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

August 13-14 weekend looks fair with temperatures slightly below to near normal with high pressure holding unsettled weather to the south of New England. A little uncertain following this as we’ll be near an area of unsettled weather but high pressure may be able to keep the region dry into early next week as well.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Weak zonal flow pattern. Some alternating between summer warmth and humidity and a little drier/cooler air from Canada possible, but rainfall is expected to average below normal. We’re also getting to the time of year where we have to watch for possible tropical moisture from the south, and some medium range guidance has hinted at “activity” but that’s nothing unusual to see so far in advance. Just a reminder that tropical season is a wild card in the medium range uncertainty for the next several weeks…

154 thoughts on “Monday August 8 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Got a piece of the activity yesterday. Puddle estimate
    of around 0.1 inch of rain. Not much, But I’ll take it. 🙂

    1. While we had nothing, I hear north Sutton had a bit also. One of the comments on the FB post still has me laughing.

      He asked: can we do it like snow ❄️ just a dusting?

  5. We have seen quite a bit of AJ on channel 5.

    I think he is fantastic. His presentation is excellent and he always tries to add some educational piece in as well.

    I loved the other day when he baked cookies on the dash of his vehicle and then ate them. Wankum ate some as well.

    We are blessed to have some of the very best in the business here in Boston and not to mention here on the blog as well!!

    2. What a GREAT post. I sure agree. They have addressed this entire event with remarkable professionalism and accuracy.,.,,stressing the seriousness while offering advice and knowledge.

      I don’t typically follow 5. My error. I’ll look for him on Twitter. It seems to be a great place to get to “know” them outside of just their forecast.

  12. Thank you for the forecasts while I was in town! Back in Cali. 4 1/2 months until relevance again 😉

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Here in Sudbury we had quite the storm last evening. It got dark, thunder and lightning and strong gusts of wind w/heavy rain. Small branch fell off one of our trees. Rain was so heavy you could hardly see anything out window. But it was all brief; ‘though you could hear thunder for some time as storm moved east.

    Question – can anyone explain why in the middle of this drought w/all this humidity and a lot of clouds during many days why we are not getting more rain? I know it depends on systems moving around the country, etc. but even shouldn’t there be more frequent showers?

  15. Thanks TK.

    0.03 at Logan late yesterday. It was the most “violent” thunder/lightning event so far, and that’s not saying much. Hopefully midweek will be much longer and widespread activity.

    Any chance that backdoor can sneak further south of into Logan? At least into Dorchester?
    😉 A bonus if JPD’s neighborhood as well. 🙂

  16. I’ve stopped counting but how many 90 degree days so far for Boston? Are they close to the record of 30 set in 1983?

    1. I t honk we are in the mid teens. Remember we only had 2 up until when we had the first heat wave July.

  18. Probably going to be more difficult to get a 7 day heatwave again as the average temperatures are cooling. Maybe rinse and repeat pattern ? I was in the ocean yesterday 77° ocean temperature at the south coast of Rhode Island.

  20. Thanks so much, TK!

    Like some, the heat got to me on Saturday. Didn’t feel well.

    A 90º+ day here today will give us a 7-day heat wave. We’re almost there at 88º. The Taunton record is 10 days (2002).

    We have missed all of the thunderstorms. We’ve had 0.51″ of showers in the last two weeks and only 1.40″ since July 1.

    I have been meaning to say that a former Middleborough student of mine is now the chief TV met at the CBS affiliate in Sacramento. He is Nic Merianos.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/personality/nic-merianos/

    Speaking of Middleboro, the Middleboro Little Leagues 12s are the state champs and are in Bristol CT playing in the New England regionals. A few of the players are the sons of former students and younger brothers of current students. They beat New Hampshire on Saturday but trail in the bottom of the sixth/last inning, 10-3, to the Men from Maine. The game is on ESPN right now. So proud!

    Mark, how’s softball summer going? I am sure some brutal games!

    Update: Bangor, Maine 10, Middleboro MA 4. Final. Middleboro plays Concord, New Hamphire Wednesday in an elimination game.

    How’s Mrs. OS, JPD?

      1. Indeed! Sean Newcomb is back up with the Chicago Cubs after getting traded from the Braves earlier in the season. He has spent most of the year with the AAA Iowa Cubs.

        I have a former student from my Catholic school teaching days who was a senior advisor for President Obama.

        Truth be told, as much as I love teaching the honors/academically talented students, my heart is always with the struggling kid, in studies and in life. I have the nickname of “Old School” with many of my kiddos. That’s what they greet me with in the hallway with high-fives and fist bumps. There’s nothing like it.

    3. That is awesome, Captain…..except you not feeling well. It has been difficult for many. But a fascinating bio for Nic Merianos.

      I loved the rally of your kids in the last and was cheering loudly enough for a couple of my grandkids to come see what was happening and then cheer with me.

  21. This hot stretch most reminds me of 1980 and 1988.

    Although 1988 was hotter leading up to this.

    This year was cooler leading up to it.

    1. And we didn’t have AC for either. Interesting that we did have a similarly cool lead up in at least one other notable very hot summer stretch. I believe that June was even cooler than this.

          1. Wow. Cool. Mac had a few in his lab at work. I am afraid to ask if its power rearranged the furniture in your grandma’s home.

        2. Laughing here. And yes. I was telling my oldest last night how the days after she was born (July 1980) were horribly hot. We’d put an old box fan Mac had inside the screen door and sit in front of it

          Great memory.

        3. I remember an old oscillating fan that was surprisingly heavy and lasted forever. We didn’t need no stinking tightly meshed screens to prevent us from lopping off any body part we put in there!

  23. Philip, somewhere I posted Eric’s 90 degree day count. I believe we have a ways to go to tie the 30 but might be wrong also. We also have set or tied some highest low temperature records

    I’ll keep looking for the numbers but others may find faster

    Rainshine, good question. I’ve head a couple Mets say something about drought impacting rain but will leave that to others in here who are far more knowledgeable than I. My son in law was in Framingham for a cooling problem during the storm and said same as you.

  24. Is it #15 for Logan. I don’t know, lol !

    Of course, like 13 of them have been in the last 21 calendar days.

    1. Yes, and that’s been the biggest issue; well for me, at least. This has been a sustained stretch of heat, with no real breaks. Quite the pattern given how relatively heat-free we were all summer until the middle of July.

  25. I get it that fielding in baseball can be difficult when there’s a blazing hot sun up there, but Jarren Duran is supposedly a professional outfielder. See video below. He has trouble catching in the sun and he has trouble catching in the lights (at night). He’s NOT a major league caliber player, in any capacity. He’s also not a “kid.” Yet, somehow he’s on the Red Sox instead of Jackie Bradley, Jr (who’s not a good hitter – nor is Duran – but is an excellent fielder). The Sox released JBJ for nothing, but kept Durran on the team. That’s malpractice. https://twitter.com/StunnaKy/status/1556374395349676033

  26. Logan now 95 with dp 70 = Heat Index 102

    I believe this makes 6 consecutive days of 95+. I also believe that the record is 7. We may tie that tomorrow. We shall see,

  27. Given the upcoming pattern + climatology, 1983’s record of 30 days of 90+ at Logan is very, very safe.

  28. Records, ties and comments. aplogies if someone already posted some of all of these

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1556616415750356993?s=21&t=7FNk-yJ2r3tKw-gkkPQaxA
    Low of 78F sets a new record for the date in Boston (if it holds up as expected). Yesterday tied a record at 77F

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1556390088766005248?s=21&t=7FNk-yJ2r3tKw-gkkPQaxA
    Question was how many consecutive days at 95+. Answer is 7. If it is 95+ today (Monday) and tomorrow, we will be one day shy of the 1944 record

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1556372051459457026?s=21&t=7FNk-yJ2r3tKw-gkkPQaxA
    Record high tied again yesterday

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1556258492238921729?s=21&t=7FNk-yJ2r3tKw-gkkPQaxA
    Today (Sunday) ties the longest streak on record of days topping 80F in Boston (24) with the new mark set tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1555623252474707969?s=21&t=7FNk-yJ2r3tKw-gkkPQaxA
    Friday post was 13 so if I’m reading correctly, this is day 16

  29. I don’t know about the ensembles, but the depressing part about the 00z op runs and now the 12z GFS op run is they are not projecting much rain mid week.

    1. It now hurts to walk barefoot on our once lovely deep green lawn. I know other areas are struggling far more than we are with drought…often repeatedly….but it does make me sad.

    2. Saw that. It’s not a lot more than the episodic (mostly light and brief) showers we’ve been having in recent days.

    1. I just shared this in FB. I’ve read too many books about John Adams to count, but his was my all time favorite. I also read it too many times to remember.

      A very very sad loss

    2. It’s not your imagination Joshua. We’ve lost a lot of national and local celebrities in recent weeks.

  36. Anyone want to take a shot at a weird question.

    Like her dad, our oldests hair is tight curls. Humid weather undoes her efforts to keep it straight. But she loves this weather because she says it is “wonderfully hot and dry” so no frizzies

    But unless I completely misunderstand the definition of Dew Point, the air isn’t dry. So why does cooler humid air not have the same frizzie impact as hotter humid air?

      1. Wow. Thank you very much. And yes that explains a lot. Maybe even reading between the lines on why hot humid differs from cold humid

  40. With this drier mid week solution and 850 mb temps remaining at 15-16C and the parched southern New England ground, I wouldn’t be shocked if Springfield, MA, Hartford, CT, maybe an interior Merrimack Valley location and an interior southern NH location or 2 take a run at 90F both Wednesday and Thursday. If we were not in this drought, I’d think mid 80s, but with this dry ground, I wouldn’t be surprised.

  41. With regard to Jarren Duran from what I understand he is actually a second baseman.

    I don’t get it.

    1. Frankly, I had bad vibes about this season right off the bat just because their opening schedule was at Yankee Stadium. The kiss of death right there!

    1. No surprise because we’re in an air mass that is warm aloft as well.

      That’s one of the reasons that the thunderstorm bases were high yesterday.

      1. Thanks ! I didn’t know that there was that relationship. (Thunderstorm base heights and how warm aloft)

          2. It fuels them far better than warmth aloft, which tends to inhibit development.

            But the heat was one factor in the high bases for those Sunday storms. It was cool enough aloft to get them going and sustain them into eastern MA, enough for wind damage along the path of the strongest storm.

  43. Briefly hit 97 and 110 Heat index. Again we have a fairly strong wind. Feels as if someone is holding 20 hair dryers on you…all turned to highest temp.

  44. The Isle of Sholes reporting station, which is slightly north of due east of Hampton Beach has an ENE wind now.

    Portsmouth, NH has a SE wind and a bit of a temp drop.

    I give this cool air credit. It must be a very thin, moderated layer, but in the face of the westerly flow above it, its made it a decent distance down the coast, relatively speaking.

      2. yes, for sbout 10 yesrs or so,

        Wife, son and I saw here about 35-40 yesrs ago on the boston common. We were 3rd row center for an awesome concert experience. What a show it was. She was a super lady, So Sad.

      3. yes, for sbout 10 yesrs or so,

        Wife, son and I saw here about 35-40 yesrs ago on the boston common. We were 3rd row center for an awesome concert experience. What a show it was. She was a super lady, So Sad.

    1. 95 here and that is tops for the day.

      I was just putting out the trash and recycling. It was like stepping into a blast furnace! BRUTAL!!!!!

    1. You said “blast furnace” and that is indeed what it felt like.

      My relatively new refrigerator can’t keep up. Had to throw out a lot of things just now. Part of the problem is no AC, but I live in a basement apartment. If I installed window AC I’d have no natural light at all. There is no central AC in the building.

        2. I’d forgotten my don had one when he was in Framingham. Friends in York Maine do also. Great suggestion

        3. This is good for 200 sqft. For every 6,000 BTU AC Unit it will keep 200 sqft nice and cool. I tend to go bigger and would get a 7-8,000 BTU for every 200 sqft.

      3. 23, 14, 15, 24, 16 is the last 5 summer’s worth of 90F+ days at Logan.

        Now, the next upcoming 5 summers could be 7, 4, 9, 2, and 6 for days greater than or equal to 90F.

        I wonder what the investment in the AC would be against what you lost in cost for food ……. I think this and other summers have proven the AC wouldn’t need to be in the window from early June to early September, but maybe could be put in there for certain stretches, if that’s not too much of a pain and you have storage for it.

        In any event, I hope you can keep comfortable as best as possible.

    1. Thanks for sharing the info on the portable AC, SClarke. I talked about this with the hardware store owner two summers ago. He knows my small unit with very small windows. The window units either don’t fit or block the entire window. Ventilating the portable AC’s is a major problem in my unit. There really isn’t any place to do this properly, other than a hole in the brick wall that would require applying for a permit – which could take years from the local historic commission.

      1. Joshua, I apologize for my post above. It was well intended, but after reading this post, well ….. I made some assumptions and just in general, overstepped some bounds. Sorry. Tom

    1. Not necessarily. Summer runs til late September, and history shows that September can bring the heat itself.

  54. Thanks TK!

    Hi WHW 🙂

    Hope everyone here has been well, it’s been awhile. Sorry to disappear these past few months. Things have been very busy on my end and I’ve taken a step back from social media in general. Long story short: I’m in a new state, with a new job! For a longer story, see below, this is from my FB page.

    https://imgur.com/Us0N4K0

    Needless to say, I am quite far from the WHW coverage area 😉

    I’ve still been reading the blog on and off but have probably missed a lot the past few months. Now that things are more settled on my end, I’m getting myself “back in the game.” While I probably won’t quite be a regular, I’m hoping to chime in more going forward!

    For a little bonus, here’s a rather impressive shot of a thunderstorm I got a little earlier today, this cell was about 50 miles northeast of me. Beautiful structure and an overshooting top visible…

    https://imgur.com/4G1P6fW

    2. As Mac would always say…I am bursting my buttons Congratulations on a well deserved promotion and move. As always, I wish for you everything you wish for yourself and more.

  55. Tom, no need to apologize. You did not overstep any bounds.

    It’s kind of you and others to try and think of solutions to the problem. The good news is it’s a relatively short-lived problem in the Northeast. I do manage with my fans – I have a really fancy bladeless one in my bedroom/study. Soon enough the fans will go into storage. On a day like today that seems unbelievable. But it’s definitely true. It’s like those days in February when I cross the Boston Common and it’s 20F and an 80F day is unimaginable, but really only a few months away at that point in time.

    One thing I don’t do is wish time away. Sure, I sometimes wish it was cooler. But, every day is a blessing. Yes, that includes the hot and humid ones. I also know that for you, Tom, and all teachers summers are precious. You work very hard during the school year, and not just throughout the week.

    1. Thanks Joshua !

      You have a very positive attitude about the heat.

      Yes, summers are a savior for sure. My mind is starting to think about getting into our school soon and dropping off some supplies and putting a few posters back up onto the wall. 🙂

  56. The sun is dipping below the trees sooner. I am able to sit out, enjoy the breeze on the deck and look up

  59. I mentioned this before but I will definitely contact my oil company at some point to discuss installation of AC for next summer. They send flyers all the time on it. I am like Joshua with no AC and just fans. I am tired now of coming home from work or errands to a hot house and constantly sweating no matter how easy the chore, even just sitting down to rest.

    Our summers have changed greatly since I was growing up. If you could hang on for 4-5 days, cool Canadian air would arrive for at least 2-3 days worth. I guess with this planet’s new “climate change”, is now preventing Canada from paying us occasional visits. I can remember the occasional well below normal day in which a very light jacket was necessary.

    Even with the upcoming pattern “breakdown” we are still talking mid-80s for daytime highs. Still not a reason to turn off AC’s just yet.

    Wish me luck on an AC installation for 2023!

    1. One final thought: I do fear that the 30 days set in 1983 will be challenged, and sooner rather than later. If not next summer then the one after that, etc.

      This planet just gets HOTTER AND HOTTER AND HOTTER!!!!!!! 🙁

    2. I’ve had AC since 1993. Always go more BTU AC than sqft. It’s a big mistake in southern New England. For every 200 sqft ft you want 6,000 BTU.

      1. Wait….I thought you are in northern NE?

        Rule of thumb is below. Going higher is not recommended

        Old house 400-450 square feet per ton (12k BTU)
        New House 550-600 square feet per ton
        The big mistake is over Oversized would make the compressor short cycle and die

      2. Good thing you live in the mountains of north central New England where it’s not as big a mistake. 😉

  60. Isle of Shoals ob now 68F with a NNE wind.

    Pressure fell 2mb btwn 3 and 7pm. Perhaps a very micro scale low. Now this low has moved east of them and is giving this backdoor front another little push.

    Hampton, NH is still very warm and humid, but its breeze has gone to very light from the north.

    1. If only. The southern edge of the line I mentioned earlier is shockingly starting to fall apart. Hopefully, someone gets some rain

  62. Hampton, NH has gone from 84F to 72F in 1 hr and Rockport, MA had a bit of a temp drop in the past 10 mins

  64. Still wondering why I am the only person who is forecasting Thursday to be a mostly nice day…

    Do the rest of them know something I don’t? 😉

  65. New weather post…

    Leaning toward higher t-storm risk being southern half of MA southward, but everywhere must be on the look-out today.

    The beneficial rainfall event potential for Wednesday has pretty much gone POOF and become a limited shower episode for southeastern areas Wed night.

    Still feel like after a wet start for the SE, Thursday is a nice day. 🙂

    I noticed NWS changed their wording from “mostly cloudy” to “partly sunny” for Thursday, so they’re catching on. 😉

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