Wednesday August 10 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

The hot spell is broken, and we’ll be in a cooler regime through the coming weekend. Thunderstorms brought up to an inch or two of rain to some areas Tuesday afternoon and early evening, especially south of I-90. Despite some locally heavy rainfall, the drought continues for the region and will for the foreseeable future, as we have not been able to get any widespread beneficial rain events in succession. I briefly had hope for some beneficial showers behind our frontal passage, but that is not going to materialize. Only a swath of showers will cross southeastern areas early on Thursday. We’ll keep moderate humidity in place both today and Thursday, with coolest air today and a bit of warm-up Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This front will cross the region Thursday night and early Friday and may produce a few showers, followed by a delivery of much drier air. This is going to set up a beautiful mid August weekend as high pressure arrives.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight mainly eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Chance of passing showers elsewhere. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy start with showers likely southeastern MA/RI. Otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

High pressure shifts offshore and a broad low pressure circulation over the Middle Atlantic States combine to send higher humidity air back this way next week, but this time without the high heat, as a southeast to south air flow will be dominant with maritime modification. This low pressure trough should result in up to 3 days of greater rainfall opportunities, which would be potential good news for drought relief.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

A typical August pattern looks like it will be with us heading into late month – weak zonal flow, warmth and some higher humidity at times, but also watch for an intrusion of drier/cooler air from Canada at some point as well. Still not seeing any solid signs of drought-busting rainfall, even from the tropics, but looking this far out into the future is of course a lower confidence forecast.

48 thoughts on “Wednesday August 10 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Much more tolerable this morning. Can’t wait for the humidity drop Friday into the weekend.

  5. Thanks TK.

    66 this morning. I for one am very happy to see the third 6 removed. However, this south of the pike town wants to know where the rain is 🙄

  6. Records. Records. And more records

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1557322928911536129?s=21&t=tP5Jr_Z6bTk3O-g8IaAYDg
    8/10 The *average* high over the past 3 weeks was a record 92F. What a torch
    Also a record 26 straight days of highs 80F+ that likely ends today.

    https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1557303175631310849?s=21&t=tP5Jr_Z6bTk3O-g8IaAYDg
    8/10 The big heat is now in the record books. Hottest 30 days on record. (average day/night=80F) Longest streak at or over 80F (26 days). 2nd longest streak at or over 95F. (6). (Vicki adding that #1 with 7 was 1944

  11. This summer is going to be remembered for the two heat waves that happened. We had a nice stretch from June 1st to July 17th with many days where the humidity was in check with fronts coming through where the heat and humidity could not get established. Since July 18th more very warm to hot and humid days than days where the humidity was in check.

  12. 0.44″ of rain, the most since July 2.

    The low max was 77º yesterday, one degree shy of the record set on July 31, 1917.

    We hit 98º before noon and the dewpoint was 78º around 3 pm.

  13. Logan 23F cooler than at 11am yesterday.

    Worcester 16F cooler

    Providence 20F and Hartford, CT 10F, but 20F lower heat indice.

    1. I think I stated on the previous blog I had already heard two complaints about it being too cool or too cold. I heard about yet another one from somebody else so add to that.

      Makes me laugh.

      1. I get the comment that it is too cold. A lot of people liked the weather we just had and to them that is the best part of summer. So also to them, is cold comparatively. its for sure that everyone is different. My oldest is one of them.

        1. As an affirmation of how cold it felt comparatively…..six year old rilyn mac went out this morning to walk the dog. It was misting and she asked her mom if it was snowing.

      2. 🙂 🙂

        I’m doing some work outside that I put off until it cooled off and appreciated today’s temps pretty quickly. It feels great, but I still eventually worked up a sweat.

        1. I took my granddaughter to her riding lesson where there was a nice breeze. But she and the horse worked up quite a sweat. I have a completely different perspective on what is too cold….in my book too cold doesn’t exist. And I’m sure that warrants many eye rolls for good reason

  14. WBZ news today reported that it is rare to see the same area struck by lightning twice. They were referring to the Cape Cod Marina and Onset Bay in this case. The statement is incorrect. When you have an intense thunderstorm with a concentrated lightning core, multiple strikes over a small area is quite common. Is not rare at all to have the same bay (even marina), shopping area, amusement park, etc. struck by lightning more than once in the same storm.

    1. Well, it’s that old saying of “lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place.” 😉

      Growing up, that’s all I ever heard along with never to stand under a tree during a thunderstorm.

  19. A while back some of you may recall my mentioning of some signs of better moisture arriving in the southwestern US as early as this year. That is happening. They are having a banner monsoon season with some areas having already received 300% or more of their normal monsoon season rainfall. This is putting the largest dent in a long-term drought that we have seen in a long, long time. And I think there is further good news ahead for this part of the country in the months to come. More on this later…

    1. I saw yesterday over the past 6 weeks, New Mexico has gone from like 70 plus percent in the highest drought category to now just under 30.

      Finally some relief.

        1. Yes, the earlier days of the “monsoon season” in June are when the hottest part of the year is about to come to an end. The early storms often have very little rain that reaches the ground and the fire danger goes up because of lightning. This is followed soon though by much wetter storms in July and especially August, which help quell the fires and bring beneficial rain. An unfortunate side effect of this seasonal phenomenon is flash flooding, but that part of the country is well aware of the danger and they plan for that the best they can. Last year’s monsoon rainfall was above average in Arizona and this year’s is above normal over a larger area, which is a good trend for that part of the country. 🙂

          Forecasting monsoon seasons in the US Southwest, and especially India / Asia / Indonesia were a huge part of my long-term work in the private sector, so this is something I’ve had a lot of experience with over the years. Sometimes when the Indian Monsoon sets in, the flash flooding can be just horrendous. The 1990s were a particularly bad decade for such events.

  20. Another very quiet tropical year in the Northern Hemisphere. This is the second one in a row.

    These stats are from a colleague of mine…

    Percent of normal ACE:
    Atlantic – 22%
    Eastern/Central Pacific – 149%
    Western North Pacific – 25%
    Northern Indian Ocean – 63%
    Northern Hemisphere total – 67%

    So a little bit active in the Eastern Pacific and very quiet elsewhere.

  21. CPC like cooler than normal interior Northeast through Great Lakes through mid South, Midwest, and southern Plains during the next 2 weeks. Byebye heat. The northwestern quarter of the country is likely to be the warmest, relative to normal, during that time.

    This will drag the summer average down in a rather large swath of the nation.

    Some of the medium range guidance is really playing up our rain chances in the August 16-18 time frame. We’ve seen this before, only to be disappointed, but this one holds a bit more promise. I mentioned it today in my blog post cautiously in the increased humidity and shower chances during that time frame, but if I see some consistency in guidance over the next few days then I’ll hit the wording a bit harder and keep my fingers crossed for some more substantial drought denting in mid August. 🙂

      1. PNW & NW Europe have had notably hot summers. These are 2 areas that can get very hot at times, but they tend to go much longer stretches between major heat, and neither, especially NW Europe, have infrastructure to handle it well. NW Europe is about to get round 2, but thankfully this one won’t be nearly as severe or last as long as the super hot stretch earlier this summer.

        1. I have family in a few areas in PNW. Not a lot of AC but knowing that these hot spells will become more frequent as the globe continues to warm, installing AC units is becoming very common. Unlike many areas of this country, that area as a whole is working to address warming. The area has a reputation for being aware of the environment.

          Europe as we have mentioned on here is not like the US when it comes to AC. But many areas have use good old fashioned common sense with thicker walls, tile floors, window shutters, etc.

  22. I have been forecasting showers for Friday for a couple days now…

    NWS forecast yesterday for Friday was “sunny”. It is not going to be sunny in eastern Mass that day.

    Today the zone forecast for Suffolk County says “partly sunny” but mentions no chance of shower activity. I continue to disagree with this.

    But I think by later tonight or certainly tomorrow they will be forecasting showers for Friday, for at least part of the day.

    Anyway at least tomorrow looks like a pretty decent beach day despite the earlier in the week app forecast for a rainy day. 😉 Just further proof of the uselessness of those things… Hey at least there will be plenty of parking!

  23. Because of the dry conditions, i believe some town(s) in MA have postponed fireworks due to fire danger levels.

    1. Sadly makes sense. It’s been a difficult two years for the pyrotechnics business. This is a shame

    2. Burlington did.
      I never go to that display anyway. The one in Newburyport on the same date is way better. 😉

      There were 2 displays knocked out by t-storms on Sunday (Beverly, which is rescheduled for this Sunday), and Peabody, which has yet to be rescheduled. I go to the Beverly one, so now I’ll be at Rockport Saturday and Beverly Sunday. Pyro tour continues!

  24. Baseball season is very long, a “marathon,” to quote Tito Francona. How fortunes have changed. Seattle Mariners looked like a doormat back in May, and even part of June. The Red Sox smoked the Mariners at home and also won a series on the road. Today’s version of both teams couldn’t be more different. The Mariners are a really good team. They have a well-balanced roster. They are the opposite of the now dysfunctional and rather dead Red Sox (headed for oblivion).

    And while the Yankees haven’t experienced the same kind of collapse, they are reeling. If I was a Yankees fan I would not be confident about my chances in October. Not enough pitching, and this includes the vaunted bullpen.

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