Thursday August 11 2022 Forecast (8:12AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

A disturbance passes southeast of New England today bringing a short-lived rainfall episode to RI and southeastern MA, maybe a brief sprinkle to the northwest of there, then improving weather but limited sun after that. Humidity will still be at moderate levels with a light southerly air flow. Tonight and early Friday, a cold front crosses the region with a shower chance, and this will open the door to cooler and drier air to flow in during Friday. The weekend looks fabulous with high pressure and dry air in place. High pressure shifts offshore and the approach of a low pressure trough Monday means an increase in cloud cover eventually, but still rain-free.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an episode of rain RI and southeastern MA and a few sprinkles possible further north on the I-95 belt. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to S 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

Don’t look now but we have a shot of beneficial rain from low pressure drifting up the Eastern Seaboard in the August 16-17 time frame. I’m not going to say lock it in yet but it’s our best shot in a while at widespread rainfall that doesn’t fall all at once then run off. Will monitor and fine-tune. It would come with higher humidity but not hot weather, in fact below normal temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms may occur August 18 with lingering instability before we dry out and warm up later next week, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Looking at a “summer zonal” flow overall with mostly fair weather, moderate to higher humidity and mostly near normal temperatures, but may end up with a push of cooler/drier air from Canada before the end of the period.

48 thoughts on “Thursday August 11 2022 Forecast (8:12AM)”

    1. I have a beach day today at the NH Seacoast and there are several younger children with the group going. It’ll be better to have a day of limited sun, not-too-hot, but moderately muggy. Perfection IMO when teaching some kids how to build dribble castles. 🙂

      2. My favorite of all sand castles is the dribble castle. I love that it is passed from generation to generation

        1. My first dribble castle was made at River Country (which no longer exists) in Florida, 1977.

  3. Thanks TK.

    While it does appear that high heat won’t be dominant anymore, high humidity is still going to be in the picture from time to time in the coming weeks unfortunately. I will be very glad when Canadian air dominates again.

      2. Thank you. I can’t get it to load …my Wi-Fi has been nuts lately. I am just not sure about which one is more accurate.

          1. I wonder why. It is kind of like weather channels to me or even nws for forecasts. I am much more apt to go to local weather because they know the area rather than focus on national.

            And I know that even if the areas east of here just got a fair amount of rain it doesn’t mean they were not seeing a heavier drought before started to feel it.

            I wonder how many in those areas have water bans. That might give a clue

  6. Thanks TK
    Fairfield CT was eliminated last night so CT won’t have a team in the little league world series. I enjoy watching this event every year as former little league player for three years.

    1. Awesome that you played little league. I kept missing the CT game. It was rained out the first day (I think) and then I couldn’t find it. I’m sorry it lost but wow what a thrill for the team to be part of something so special.

  8. Yesterday at the store I saw mostly autumn clothes in the main displays with summer clothes in the clearance. Then today Dunkin’ Donuts now has pumpkin spice coffee. It won’t be long now. Enjoy the day!!!

    1. Waaaay too early for pumpkin spice stuff imo. Dunkin’ puts it out earlier every year now it seems. Corporate greed?

        1. I think of corporate greed when a company like Lowes increases the price on plywood ahead of a Hurricane.

      2. I figure if people don’t want it, they won’t buy it. Why not offer. As far as clothes, it’s definitely not early. Back to school is in a few weeks.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    And yes, high(er) humidity is typical in August. But, I am in agreement with Philip, I will be glad when it’s gone.

  12. Lightly raining in Marshfield.

    Curious to see what 12z GFS projects for next Tuesday/Wednesday.

    Didn’t think the 00z run was impressive for rain.

  14. I was in Star Market a little while ago, and there was this huge display of Pumpkin Spice Cheerios.

    YUCK!!!!

    With regard to Dunkin’ already offering pumpkin spice, I still wonder if there really is all that much demand for it in late summer.

  15. A large area in Europe is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, and it’s been a sustained period of drought. This graphic depicts a map of Europe. It’s in Dutch. Shows where there is drought and where there is “vegetation stress.”
    https://cdn.nos.nl/image/2022/08/11/886772/1024x576a.jpg

    It’s really bad, and unfortunately has been a trend in recent decades, and especially during the last 10 years across much of Europe. It’s caused by a combination of relatively extreme and persistent heat and lack of precipitation. The Rhine fiver is running dangerously low. The river set to become impassable to barges by Friday, threatening crucial shipments of coal, oil and goods. Barge traffic on the rivers is VERY important – critical – throughout Europe, for transportation from the main ports like Rotterdam.

  16. My daughters yard looks as if fall has arrived. The lawn is covered with leaves. All near acre. These are established and healthy trees. A younger tree in our front yard that holds leaves well into November has some yellow leaves.

    We just drove from Sutton through upton into Hopkinton. The trees are showing signs of struggle. More closer to here than Hopkinton

    A couple of areas in daughters yard…

    https://imgur.com/a/N8bir0k

      1. Not really longer, but a 2-part season. Some trees go early, some dull but others with good color. A break comes, and then the rustic season usually delivers well regardless of the weather pattern. Same as 2016.

  17. 12z ECMWF brings 0.02″ of rain to Springfield over the next 10 days. 0.25″ to Worcester, and just a tad more than that to Boston during the same time period. Hyannis is about 1.25″ so there is a sharp cutoff.

    I do think next week has a better rain chance in SNE than in recent weeks, but just as I didn’t think ECMWF 105-110 was going to verify during the early August, I don’t think yesterday’s widespread 3-5″ of rain is going to verify either, if there are to be beneficial rains I would think late Tuesday to early Thursday would be the watch period. However, I fear north and west could end up somewhat dry and best chances for beneficial amounts could be the Cape and Islands and down east Maine, while the majority of SNE stays dry. The dynamics to wind this up and bring it north and west seem fishy to me, or out to sea,,,Ha!

    3. I agree. The trend on the guidance in the last 2-3 runs is drier, and that includes 3 major medium range models.

  19. Middleboro Little League 10, Bangor ME 1.
    Massachusetts is off to Williamsport for the Little League World Series!!! 🙂

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