Friday August 12 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

A frontal boundary went by overnight with Friday’s morning showers occurring before the sun came up, which leaves us with a nice day today – sun/cloud mix, much cooler than recently, and finally much lower humidity. Other than a disturbance bringing some cloudiness later tonight and for part of Saturday morning, we’re setting up for a very nice mid August weekend, courtesy of high pressure – lots of sun, manageable temperatures and low humidity. Enjoy if you can! Early next week, high pressure gives way to a broad but weak trough of low pressure which will increase the cloud cover, humidity, and eventually rainfall chances – although it worries me a bit, regarding potential drought relief, that all of the medium range guidance today already looks less impressive for that rain chance. This will be something to monitor. Will keep Tuesday’s shower chance in the forecast for now.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds until mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

Less impressed by the guidance regarding the rainfall threat for early in this period, but will keep the shower chance in the forecast for August 17, with a few additional showers and thunderstorms possible for August 18. Dry trend for later in the period. Not looking for the return of hot weather at this time, although somewhat of a warming trend will likely occur.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

High pressure dominates with below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during the last full week of August.

60 thoughts on “Friday August 12 2022 Forecast (7:35AM)”

      1. There were a whole bunch of them from late June to mid July. Not rare at all this summer. 🙂

  13. Saw a predicted forecast low of 54 early Sunday morning. Brrrr Ik the forecast here is 55-62. 62 in Boston and in less populated and away from coast 55.

  16. The drought has created quite a bit of vegetation stress. A warning to hikers and others out and about in the woods, or simply walking/running/biking in a park. On my 12-mile run today I saw numerous fallen branches from dying (or sick) trees. Some of the branches were very large and if they had struck someone it would have caused serious injury or worse.

    Desiccation is a result of two things: 1. Prolonged period in which there is a lack of meaningful rain; 2. An unusually long and sustained period of heat/full sun.

  17. Canadian & European models rotate the low underneath us with mainly a miss next week.

    GFS now has no clear trend. One one rain, one run not so much rain, next run rain, next run not so much rain. Wet, dry, wet, dry, wet, dry, like a toddler that can’t make up its mind.

    Taking all this into account, the general trend is drier now.

  18. We are in the process of setting a long-term record regarding hurricane landfalls in the US.

    The last landfalling hurricane in the US in the month of June was in the year 1986. The 36 year period without one in June since is the longest stretch since record-keeping began.

    1. The now 31 year period without one here in New England/New York is the 2nd longest on record. The record is 38 years, between 1896 and 1934.

      It’s been 68 years since a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) hit the Northeast (Carol – 1954). The longest stretch without one is 69 years, between 1869 and 1938. Of course, with only 3 storms of this intensity since 1851, the sample size is fairly small. Before 1851, there are 3 additional documented storms that were believe to be Cat 3 or stronger – 1635, 1815, and 1821.

  19. Already seeing another inconsistency in the 18z GFS. Wet weather threat is there, but 24 hours ahead of previous runs. 😉

    “Don’t trust those model runs out more than 3 days.”
    How many of us meteorologists on here have said that now?
    There’s a reason. This is why we do what we do, because the tools are imperfect. 🙂

  20. You brought up a topic That’s been on my mind.

    While following several of our Mets on twitter the past week or so, I was interested that the Boston Mets used the same approach that the PNW Mets I followed in June 2021 did. Two in particular (Eric and Dave) but others also noted that models can also be used for guidance. Eric gave them credit for “sniffing the signal out well in advance” for this past event. Dave tweeted as you know that first thing he does in the am is look at the GFS long range precipitation forecast.

    I know full well that outside of three days, But I’ve noticed more than once in the past that they can “sniff out” something more general and the media Mets use that for a form of guidance combined with their own knowledge. It seems that while imperfect on a smaller scale that they sometimes can be quite helpful on a large scale.

    Just thinking out loud.

    1. That is exactly right and something I have referred to here on the blog many times in the past and even recently.

      When one of us says something about the “day 3 rule” etc, it’s not targeting the model’s ability for general pattern forecasting, but rather details. At this point it’s pretty common knowledge to all of the readers here because we talk about it so often, but it’s also important to occasionally remind folks what this means, as they have. This is why I think we have some great mets in our market and are lucky. I don’t read a lot of twitter but those guys are great at pointing out such things there, and they toss it in on the air when time allows. To me, this is very important for readers / listeners / watchers. It ties into the education aspect of it. If the general public is going to have access to some of the same tools the professionals use, or at least see a lot of posts about them, then we owe it to them to explain the cans and cannots of the tools we are using.

      1. Exactly. I mentioned a few weeks ago that the GFS has been correct about some events and what it saw might be worth watching and it sure was. Details have always been my friend although they can lead me off course, they tend not to.

        I agree it is important to carefully note in conjunction with missing the smaller scale details that the models do have an important larger scale use outside of three days. It’s easy to overlook

        Fwiw. I’ve found Twitter is an awesome way to get to know the Mets outside of a few nightly forecasts. Their personalities shine. Outside of Twitter, I’m lucky to know Pete and am developing a relationship with Eric.

        1. It’s a good way to get to know them a bit more since they are not confined to a 3 1/2 min presentation that has to conform to the “industry standard” set by people who know little or nothing about weather. 🙂

  21. Petey B cracked me up on his 5:45 segment today.

    When he was showing his 10-day hinting at some middle to upper 80s near the end of it, he made a voice to imitate somebody and said “I’m not getting into that ‘oh it’s over!’ thing about summer”. Reminds me of what I do when I’m talking to people about calling winter, summer, hurricane season, etc. over far too early. You know, like winter’s over on January 8 because we’re in a mild pattern and haven’t had a big snowstorm yet. 😉

    I could watch Pete all day. 🙂

  22. P.S. … deeper into the 18z GFS run, and while it brings a shower threat in sooner (Monday) it pulls back on the rain overall through the middle of next week, with a generally light event on this run.

    On the same weathercast referenced above, Pete Bouchard said that he’d hope we have this nailed down by late Sunday, at which time Monday becomes day 1, Tuesday becomes day 2, and Wednesday becomes day 3. Makes perfect sense to me. 🙂

  23. The first puzzle piece for the winter forecast usually is available about now, which is why using almanac forecasts as anything more than entertainment is a waste of time. Those are written in May, June, and July, when little if any reliable information for long range prediction of winter is available.

    The first puzzle piece that I see is that it looks like we will enter winter 2022-2023 in the La Niña phase of ENSO. By itself, this doesn’t really have any solid implications as to what type of winter we will see, but is merely one of a significant handful of puzzle pieces to consider as we move through the coming few months.

  24. “Awesome sunset warning” for later this hour into early 800PM hour (twilight). The set-up seems to be pretty good for it over eastern MA especially.

    1. A Monday. I remember coming home from a late night at work before sunrise in one of the thickest fogs I have ever travelled in, and the air was completely calm… It was both eerie and fascinating.

      1. Mac spent the day climbing up and down a ladder into the attic to catch a drip tucked way in the eves. Needless to say …I never mentioned being excited about a hurricane

      1. They safe that date for the best of the best.

        Mac’s twin also. But one year when I reminded him to call, he asked if it was Cam’s birthday too.

  26. The worst hurricane in my lifetime that I can remember is Gloria. It was the last true hurricane that I experienced hurricane force winds for about 3 hours. I remember the whistling of the wind between the houses and the cracking of branches and trees falling. Not much rain as I remember.

  27. Out and about. Just prior to sunset, saw an impressive towering cumulus cloud in the southwest sky. Wasn’t expecting it. I’m sure it’s not the same cloud, but a storm popped in RI, I believe.

  28. I should have a contest to see which non-met Facebook page will be the first to post their own version of a hurricane alert based on the 06z GFS (which is a very, very bad run, by the way). 😉

    But I won’t have the contest because I don’t look at any of those pages anymore unless somebody sends me a screen shot that I then have to tell them isn’t an actual weather forecast. 😉

      1. Nope. It’s not being developed from anything coming out of the tropics.

        It’s a bad run, severely over-developing low pressure at the surface in relation to the broad weak trough near the East Coast.

        Also, that disturbance’s chance of developing in the next 48 hours is 10%. The very quiet season continues for now…
        A few of the storms that were named so far were not actually storms that deserved names, but be that as it is (we know the politics of the NHC these days), it’s a very quiet first half of the season. Not the first time, won’t be the last.

          1. This is a good opportunity for me to point out that in no way does a quiet first half necessarily mean all of it will be though. Things can wake up in a hurry.

            1999 is a great example. Only one named storm before mid August, and then things really picked up, including “backward-moving” CAT 5 Hurricane Lenny in the Caribbean, and also Floyd, which had a significant impact on New England.

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