Saturday August 13 2022 Forecast (8:13AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

If you are getting up to a blanket of clouds overhead, think of it as the toll booth at the entrance of a very nice weekend, and the toll is a rather cheap one, as we just have a few hours of clouds to deal with over eastern areas from a passing offshore disturbance. Otherwise a magnificent mid August weekend is ours as high pressure becomes dominant and we have low humidity and dry weather. In fact the only negative aspect of this stretch is it allows more building of the drought, but enjoy the nice weather for what it is. Humidity will be making a come back early to mid next week, but this time without the heat. This will take place as the high moves away Monday and a broad but weak area of low pressure to our south tries to head in this direction. With the exception of one really bad GFS run (06z), all reliable guidance now has a fairly minimal impact on our area from this system. If this is correct, it’s not great news, because the possibility of beneficial rain to help the drought diminishes greatly in the scenario being depicted by most guidance, and that is to take the bulk of the rainfall initially out to the south, then turning northward and northwestward too late to help us (though parts of northern New England, especially Maine, would do better). So while our weather becomes more humid and somewhat unsettled later Monday into Wednesday, I’m less optimistic about a helpful rain event.

TODAY: Lots of clouds especially eastern areas into mid morning, exiting from west to east, lastly on Cape Cod, by late morning, with a sun/cloud mix after. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s most areas but still near 60 across Cape Cod before falling into the 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58, coolest interior lower elevations. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers near the South Coast by late-day. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure trough lets go of the area with maybe a spot shower or thunderstorm otherwise fair and warming up August 18, then high pressure takes over with dry and warmer weather and most likely a return to moderate humidity through the August 20-21 weekend, and maybe a bit more heat and humidity sneaking in by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

High pressure dominates with below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during the last full week of August.

53 thoughts on “Saturday August 13 2022 Forecast (8:13AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    Looking at the prospect of a cool (weather) concert on the beach on Nantucket tonight!

    (It features the music of Queen, so maybe that’s cool also…)

  2. I’ll be in Rockport MA for the back half of the afternoon until about 10PM tonight. I can wear shorts when it’s cooler, as long as I have a light jacket with me. Lots of photos and a great fireworks display in my near future. If any of you are going up there, look for the person by himself with a Bruins hat taking a lot of photos with a phone camera, then come say hi! 😉

  3. Thanks TK.

    Is the Wednesday system similar to a wintertime norlun? Earlier it really looked like a Wednesday washout (on my day off, btw). Oh well.

    1. No, it is not really the same.
      The “earlier” is a good example of why we can’t just look at the model and say “this is what’s gonna happen”. In using the guidance as a tool, and I think SAK said it best on his blog, we have our doubts based on performance in certain regimes and given trends. He expressed doubts about that guidance being right about such a beneficial rainfall. I had mine too, though I must admit I felt a bit more optimistic initially than I had for a while, with reservation. Basically the same thing.,

      Is there still time for a surprise? Sure. But odds don’t favor it. If you ignore the bad 06z GFS, 3 major medium range models now have the general pattern such that we will miss out on a lot of what could have been.

    1. The pictures are from a separate branch of the river that tends to dry up easily. The main river is still flowing. So in some aspects, this is cherry picked to emphasize. Yes, they are in a drought, as any area can be, but they will break out of it, sooner than California will theirs. The comments by locals under the main tweet help to clarify this, including photos.

      But this is something we see in both social media and mainstream media, find the worst looking thing and take a picture of it to emphasize something.

      That said, yes they have significant drought there, for now.

          1. It’s a flawed run, I believe. I think I’m looking at the ensembles and they don’t agree with this at all.

            So, I’d take this gfs run and doubt it very highly.

            2. Thank you and I would not mind rain, I remember a year ago (8/19) when we had a deluge with Henry or was it Henri and that would not be particularly helpful with the ground as baked hard as it is.

        1. This is now for the 18th? We have outdoor plans for the 19th. I’m sure hoping that stays clear I think I’ll work on a plan b just in case. When we made the plans, one of my kids said we can now be sure that it will finally rain

          1. It would probably still improve drastically on the 18th, but have a plan B in case, since there is still some uncertainty with all of this.

  16. Don’t toss out the rain event yet. Still some hope. But I still won’t hold my breath either. 😉

  18. The Rhine river is approaching a critical mark, as water levels continue to decrease. This week’s heat wave coupled with a severe drought is causing the low water levels. As I said earlier this week, a lot of transportation of goods and raw materials takes place in Europe by way of barges that traverse the large rivers from major ports like Rotterdam to the industrial heartland of Germany and back. It’s becoming more and more difficult for barges and other shipping traffic to move down the waterways, especially where there are turns. This is not an unprecedented event, but it has been happening more frequently in recent years. https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1558453818995707906

    1. 13 rivers in England are at the lowest levels ever recorded.

      You hit the nail squarely on the head when you said some of these are not unprecedented, but they are occurring more frequently.

  19. was just chatting with my SIl. In the decades he has owned an office building beside the Sudbury in Ashland, the water has not been this low. The Deer are walking up and down the middle. It recovered a bit after a recent rain but lost it quickly. The Blackstone both in this area and behind my sons home in RI is a bit ahead of the Sudbury and is also extremely low.

    Extremes are in every corner of our earth. Since the 1980s each decade has been warmer globally than the last. The arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the earth and what happens there impacts the entire planet.

    https://www.npr.org/2022/08/11/1116608415/the-arctic-is-heating-up-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-earth-study-f

        1. It’s only the northern hemisphere’s arctic region that has, and the reason is the reduction in sea ice changes the albedo of the region which can then absorb more sunlight. The antarctic is more variable, with parts of the region (the peninsula for example) having warmed, as well as “West Antarctica” while other sections have gotten somewhat colder. The antarctic just recorded its second coldest year on record. In 2021, Amundsen-Scott at the South Pole recorded its coldest 6-month period (April-September) on record. But as I always say, include the period of record for reference. Record-keeping there goes back to 1957, so this is the coldest 6-month period in the 65 years we’ve been recording it there. Regardless of cause, a warmer overall globe will still have colder areas, at least initially. It warmed up drastically enough in the pre-human warm spells to melt all the ice at both poles. This took place over very long periods of time.

          Also, to address your first line, just because somewhere is the “coldest place in the world” doesn’t mean it has to have a slower rate of warming, or cooling, for that matter. In fact, the poles are more vulnerable to more rapid changes in longer-term temps than the lower latitudes, just because of the very nature of the orientation of earth / sun (our main driver of all climate and weather).

          By the way, when bringing up these things before to bring science into the discussion, I have been FALSELY called a climate change denier. No. I always have said and always will say we should take our steps to reduce our impact. You can’t be part of an environment without having an impact on said environment. It gets tiring being falsely accused of something I am not. 😉 😉 😉 I know you never have done that, but my goodness social media can be vicious at times.

      2. I’d ask you to read comments on the tweet YOU shared but have learned from experience that when you are wrong you simply double down

        SAK I will ask you AGAIN not to respond to me. I do not have space in my life for a bully ….never have and never will.

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