Sunday August 14 2022 Forecast (8:06AM)

84 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

Will it rain? Will it not rain? If it rains, how much will it rain? Questions without answers. Well we have some answers, but not all of them are complete or confident, but we’ll get to that. First we have a beautiful Sunday to enjoy before our weather pattern takes a turn. Today’s weather is brought to you by Canadian high pressure and brings us lots of sun, a chilly morning compared to recently, but a nice rebound to near normal afternoon highs with low humidity. It’s interesting to note that this morning’s 7:00 a.m. temperatures showcase some of the regional / local differences you can have. Boston, for example, is exhibiting the urban heat island effect with 65 while a typical cool spot, Norwood, sits at 53, just a few degrees above the upper 40s. Meanwhile, out on the islands, ocean water keeps Nantucket modified at 68 while the relatively low elevation air port at Martha’s Vineyard sits at 54. These are the types of things a forecaster has to take into account when they need to get very specific with temperature forecasts, and it’s often easy to forget and have certain areas outside your temperature range, even if the forecast was “generally” good. Anyway, nice day today, and then the change begins Monday, slowly though, as high pressure slides offshore. As a broad area of weak low pressure begins to expand slowly northward along the US East Coast, we’ll first notice some increase in cloud cover, though the humidity rise will be hardly noticeable at first. It’s the Tuesday-Thursday period when we will have our highest humidity and a greater threat of some rain in the region. The model guidance is now all over the place with rainfall amounts – with the 3 models I mentioned yesterday having kind of flip flopped overall, ranging from a tenth of an inch of rain (European model) to a more moderate rainfall event (GFS model’s 06z run after a heavier one on the 00z run), with their colleague the Canadian model getting fancy with a heavier rain event for northeastern MA and southeastern NH while the rest of the region is left out, having just light rain. What does this tell you? It tells you that the guidance is not very helpful for this event just a few days out from it. But since Tuesday is day 3 on a Sunday morning update, and it looks like the main event, whatever that turns out to be, will be Wednesday to early Thursday, I can’t say I’m surprised. To be fair, while not a winter pattern, the set-up of the surface features looks a little like what you see in a colder season storm (just not as strong) so the configuration of that pattern and exact placement of features will be key in determining just how things unfold. So another day must go by before I really try to nail down details, and for now I am going to go with a light to moderate rain event for Wednesday, ending Thursday, and adjustments will be made as necessary.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the South Coast. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH. Chance of rain elsewhere. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure brings fair and warmer weather with manageable humidity for August 19 through the August 20-21 weekend based on current timing. Humidity increases along with a shower/thunderstorm chance early the following week as high pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Overall trend is for weak westerly to southerly flow with limited rain chances and near to above normal temperatures. Still don’t see a pattern that brings consistent enough rainfall to do a lot of drought reduction.

84 thoughts on “Sunday August 14 2022 Forecast (8:06AM)”

      1. All recovered Vicki thanks . All focus now is preparing all week for our sons graduation party this Saturday ( Tk we need sunny & warm )

  2. Thank you, TK!

    Your Canadian model sounds right to me based on much of what we have seen of late. That is based on absolutely nothing other than my fear that once again we will watch anything headed this way dry up just before it arrives

  3. Thanks TK.

    And Thank you Canada for paying us a visit for a change. Please stop by often, like every day for the rest of the summer. 🙂

    Unfortunately the HHH will be the pesky relative that won’t leave and wears out its welcome. That’s August for you. 😉

    1. So far not seeing much of a return to the bigger heat.
      Warmer in the medium range, yes, but no strong signs of heat at this point.

  4. Hopefully the humidity will make itself useful for a change and brings us a good 2-3” of beneficial rain for Wednesday/early Thursday.

    1. We could use it, but somehow I think the amounts are not going to quite live up to those expectations. We’ll see though. Not writing it off yet.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The weather the last 3 days has been perfect! Love it!
    Now, if we only can get some rain.

    1. Hi JJ. Have you had a chance to get out on the course or has it been too hot? Courses here are holding their own, especially greens. I’m assuming they are allowed to water.

  9. Post by Sak yesterday
    “The rest of the world is warming faster than the rest of the world.”
    https://twitter.com/Bozena15259009/status/1552398208755765249?fbclid=IwAR2G06fz00q1nJSwtk58JCmCbHNZQj7Rj7hu1pnT6q43Rbul6IhR7-bjevE

    What the media of those places are talking about is how far from the average global temperature change they are warming. Basically How much faster are you warming than the average of the world. Not comparing individual locations.

    Climate change based on the science was never about everyone just getting warmer and drier. It was about the fact that more extreme weather will be occurring with less middle ground which is pretty much what we are seeing the past several years and just like meterologists, climate scientists can be wrong as well but in actually they have a much higher success rate 😉 Nature tries to balance out, we just won’t like the results of this balancing act.

    2. Here is a little quiz.
      What body of water is warming the fastest.
      A. Arctic
      B. Gulf of Maine
      C. Antarctica
      D. Coral Triangle.
      E. Pacific Northwest coast
      F Mediterranean Sea.

      2. G. My mom’s new hot water tank. They set the thermostat too high. 😉

        The North Atlantic has warmed at a faster rate than all other oceans in the past 30-40 years ago my real answer is B.

  11. Thanks TK and Good morning from Seattle! Sunny and heading for a high of 75 here today as we get ready to leave on our Alaska cruise. We had similar weather here yesterday. Spent the day walking around the City and went to the Giant Wheel, Wings over Washington IMAX ride, the Aquarium, Pike Place market and the Space Needle. Really like this City and would like to come back to the PacNW again sometime when we have more time.

    They have been in a dry pattern here as well with no precip forecasted in the foreseeable future however they are coming off a wet April to June so aren’t in the drought situation we are.

    Unfortunately the weather does not look as nice in SE AK this week with a big Gulf low coming in and an atmospheric river setting up the first half of the week during our stops in Juneau and Sitka (the cruise line cancelled our originally scheduled stop in Skagway due to ongoing rockslides). But we will hope for the best. We are prepared for whatever comes our way!

    2. Seattle is such a lovely city. Enjoy and enjoy your cruise.

      Mac’s sister lived in Spokane and we travelled most all of WA when we visited as well as into Idaho. He has cousins who live over the sound and one on Mercer island. I know they are struggling out that way with heat also.

      Just a lovely state. I’m happy for you to be in this trip. Maybe you will send photos as time permits.

  12. Just wanted to give everybody a little heads up.
    This is not a definite yet but I have been contemplating a few things about WHW. I am looking to shift my focus a little bit as my interests are growing in other directions these days. I really enjoy my daily work in assisted living and my interest in photography is beginning to outweigh my interest in weather forecasting. Observing and storm chasing are not included in that. 😉

    My initial thought is sometime during the next 12 to 18 months to make a redesign of this site, probably abandoning the WordPress version and keeping a presence on a couple of social media platforms while I come up with a different method to deliver information on the web page. I have been thinking about this for a while but not quite sure how to go about it. But now I have some consultation in place to help.

    For now, this site will continue as is. But with so many people here that have been here from the WBZ blog days, I thought that a very in advance heads up is owed to you. 🙂

    Updates will come here when there is something to update. In the meantime, carry on! 🙂

    1. I should also add to this I am becoming more involved in writing music with my son. We’re working on a few projects at the moment. There is a full album coming out in just under one year that is going to be centered around the life of my dad. At least the main track on the album will be dedicated to the music of his life. This will all be original material written by my son and myself. I’m really excited about that endeavor as well. 🙂

        1. Nathan is going to be a huge part of this project, more so than I am. He does most of the writing and most of the arranging. I’m a good idea guy and I provide percussion that will be sampled as well as vocals that both of us will be doing.

          When we are writing a song I will often come up with a melody or a chord sequence and he will take it from there.

          1. That is pretty interesting! Writing music is great and something I do on the side as well. Great way to get my mind off things!

            Look forward to seeing your new setup.

          2. I am sure your collaboration will be awesome and can’t wait to hear it. Something you will both remember for many years to come.

    2. Brian, I think this is awesome. You have done this so professionally, for so long, with such care and expertise, that I think lots of us sometimes forget that this is not your job, but rather a hobby you do for free. I, for one, have no hobbies I have ever committed to at the rate of a daily task that can sometimes take hours, done for well over a decade. You absolutely deserve to free up some time for yourself to explore other hobbies. Can’t wait to see what that level of enthusiasm and time will bring to your music (already seen the photography results).

      1. Thanks Jules!

        It was great to see you out here in the WHW forecast area during your visit. Haha!

        Best wishes for the coming school year for you and the young ladies. 🙂

        1. Thanks 🙂 looking forward to the fall but also counting the days until the forecast is relevant again in December 🙂 gotta take the little one to her theater group audition soon. Let the overscheduling begin! (Or continue…)

    3. Your eye for photography is pretty remarkable in all the pictures you have shared with us here and on social media.

      Can’t wait to see what’s in store for you and know many here will feel the way I do, that we will support you in whatever you decide to do.

      Thanks again for all you do here each and every day. It is my first place to go to each morning and then back throughout the day and have learned so much from everyone here over the last 12 years.

  15. I’ve offered before but the offer always stands. I would be happy to help in any way. I love working with that sort of project.

  17. Over the last handful of days, if we equated the GFS’ projected rain to a snow scenario, the model would be projecting by run ….

    15 inches, 30, 0, 8, 21, 0, 40, 20 and now on its 12z run, zip zero.

    JpDave would love this consistency for a winter storm. 🙂

      1. 8/19. Yay!!!! Sorry. Don’t mean to root against rain and would welcome it on the 17 or 18……or 19 if it has to be

  20. Thanks, TK.

    I love the sound of your music project! I did a cd of originals and arrangements with my son six years ago, and we just recently started toward another. The generational collaboration is really wonderful! 🙂

    (I do hope that your weather expertise will continue to be accessible in some form…)

    1. I didn’t see the quiz

      I know the Atlantic along our coast is rising fastest. I also believe it is warming fastest. So will go with B

  23. Thanks, TK!

    Today would have been the final round of the Northern Trust golf tourney at TPC-Boston in Norton. The tournament was every Labor Day weekend as the Deutsche Bank Open. In 2017, it became the Dell Technology Championship. Because the PGA shortened the season by a week, it went to an alternating site between Norton and New Jersey as the Northern Trust Open. It was in New Jersey last August.

    In the off-season, Northern Trust dropped its sponsorship and the tournament was snatched up by FedEx and is now played and will be played in Memphis.

    I went to TPC-Norton in 2018 (less than 10 minutes from my home) and had a great time and a perfect weather day. I was so looking forward to going back this summer.

    I believe the closest PGA championship is the Travelers in Cromwell.

    1. I was not aware that it was no longer. Mac and son attended often. My son caddied for the pro am several years ago since he is a Ouimet scholar. Darned if I can recall which pro he caddied for but I remember he missed Freddie by just one. I was very disappointed 😉

      Was it the senior PGA that played Nashawtuc?

  24. Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries killed Freya the walrus. So sad and unnecessary. Freya had become quite an attraction in Norway. Apparently, she `commuted’ back and forth between Shetland and Norway. https://twitter.com/georgecmcgavin/status/1558828724652593152

    I believe Americans get their appreciation of wildlife and preservation of nature from the British. You’ll see the two tweets I sent were from British folks appalled at the killing of Freya. The valuing of animals is ingrained in society there. Quite a wonderful attribute, really.

    1. Norway is not known for getting many black marks in the world but this is definitely one of them, although attributable to really one person. Sad.

    2. Wow. I am not sure what prompted this but it sure seems to go against everything food and agriculture organizations worldwide stand for. A very close friend of Mac’s family (Roy Jackson) was the deputy director of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for years. I had the pleasure of meeting him only once before his untimely death. To say he was passionate about the safety of fish I’d an understatement. His daughter is the family friend I often mention who lives in Mercer island, WA

      I agree with TK…Norway doesn’t often deserve black marks. I’ll have to read more. Thank you for sharing, Joshua

  25. Model fun for the upcoming rain threat…

    12z GFS is a complete miss for this area (Tom mentioned this above)

    12z ECMWF is a grazing for eastern MA.

    12z GEM brings a slug of not too heavy rain to eastern Massachusetts favoring north of Boston as well as southeastern NH.

    12z NAM … out of its optimal range … Is most like the GEM but that does not mean much.

    There has been too much flip-flopping on the guidance and we would have to wait for NAM a little closer like 48 hours or less and at least two consistent runs.

    In summary… Still don’t really know what’s going to happen.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    Looking forward to the changes you will be making in the future. I love music and I think it’s great you and your son will be working on this.

    My answer to Matt is A.

  28. Tk all of the above sounds great & I wish you the best of luck on whatever you do in the future . You certainly have given us a phenomenal blog here as it’s like family . I’m also very grateful that you always help me out with my side work answering many questions without hesitation. You are a good man !!

  30. The Answer is B, Gulf of Maine.
    It is the fastest warming body of water in the entire world at around 95% with the rest of the 5% being scattered throughout the world oceans.

  31. The 12km & 3km NAM’s from 00z do not agree with each other on the rain threat. 12km is much wetter, same orientation as before (heavier northeast, less southwest), while the 3km is much lighter overall.

  33. 00z GEM still has kind of the same idea as before … heavier rain northeastern MA and southeastern NH with a big drop off just to the southwest, but the heavier rain axis has shifted slightly to the north and is more southeastern NH and barely northeastern MA on that run.

  34. CPC’s 6-10 & 8-14 showing a lot of cooler than average temps Midwest and South while the heat returns to the PNW.

    Above normal precipitation again for much of the Southwest. This is GREAT news. This is starting to cut into the long-term drought in that area.

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