Monday August 15 2022 Forecast (7:12AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

And now we reach the half-way point of the month of August and the start of a new week. Today will be a fairly nice day with high pressure hanging on, providing a sun/cloud mix and modest humidity with seasonable warmth. The high gives way to a broad circulation of low pressure which will result in a cooler but more humid onshore air flow for Tuesday and Wednesday. We’ve been over the ups and downs on the guidance and all of that, but leaving out the rollercoaster details, I am going to tell you that my strong leaning now is for a drier forecast with more of a scattering of shower activity from later Tuesday through Wednesday. There is just enough evidence to still leave the door open for a more widespread swath of showers / rain for northeastern MA and southeastern NH on Wednesday, but don’t be surprised if I have to pull back from this on the next update. In short, not a whole lot of drought relief is in store for us despite it looking a little more promising previously. Later in the week, high pressure retakes the region with fair weather returning and a warming trend as well.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Limited sun at times with clouds dominant. A chance of showers, favoring the South Coast. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers likely, but more widespread showers are possible in southeastern NH and adjacent northeastern MA. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Increasing humidity, but slowly, during the course of the August 20-21 weekend. Mainly dry weather is expected overall, but a shower threat may present itself later in the weekend. A bout of higher humidity and opportunity for a few showers and thunderstorms at times early to middle portion of next week with a general southwesterly air flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Still looking for a southwesterly to westerly air flow in general with limited rain opportunities and near to above normal temperatures into late August.

61 thoughts on “Monday August 15 2022 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  2. Continuing what I started last night…

    00z ECMWF is mainly a miss too.
    06z GFS is a miss, so that model has locked into drier scenario.
    The NAM’s from 06z are weird… the 12km which had been a heavier event on the 00z run is now mainly a miss, while the 3km which had been mainly a miss on the 00z run is now a hit – for Cape Cod, with less elsewhere .. HAHAHA .. any surprise that we have NAM weirdness? No, not really. 🙂

    Consensus model forecast is a graze / miss on the midweek threat.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    So, if I’m counting correctly this would be 5 straight times that what initially looked like a period of promising beneficial rain has swung and missed.

    July was very dry in Boston; around 0.65 inch for the month. August thus far is just as dry, if not more so. Wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be one of the top 5 driest July and August periods on record.

    1. 5 driest July/August in Boston:

      1965 – 2.03″
      1910 – 2.13″
      1968 – 2.18″
      1907 – 2.19″
      1957 – 2.35″

      2022 to date – 0.88″

  4. Thanks TK.

    Amazing that the area in New England that needs the rain the least (Maine) will be getting drenched. I believe they are barely “abnormally dry”, correct?

  9. Thanks TK
    Vicki to answer your question from yesterday. I have had a chance to get out on the golf course. Where I golf the greens are in good shape but the fairways have burned areas with the lack of rainfall we have had despite them watering them daily. Since I am not a long hitter off the tee I have been enjoying the burned areas as I have been getting more roll and little bit more distance on the tee shots.

    1. Thank you, JJ. The conditions of some courses I see here seems to be about the same. Nice that you are taking advantage of the roll!!

  13. SAK, thanks for providing details on the 5 driest July/August periods in Boston. There’s still a lot of August left. But, 2022 could very well turn out to be the driest July/August period on record.

    1. It could! Of course literally one thunderstorm could change that in a matter of minutes. From a weather geek perspective, fun to track.

  15. 12z Guidance still looking pretty dry for this week.
    Perhaps a shower here and there, but that’s about it.
    Hope this changes!

    1. 12z 12km NAM is dry except a few eastern coastal showers early Wednesday. Very lit

      12z 3km NAM has that and additional light shower / drizzle backlash Wed evening, but amounts are very light, even in areas it previously had higher.

      Once again, can’t say it’s a surprise to me, because it isn’t.

  17. Just in case you thought we had sanity and full agreement on rain or lack thereof….. the 12z euro comes along.

            1. I really don’t have any faith in the European model since the last set of upgrades. It hasn’t given me a reason to have faith in it.

  18. With the tropics very quiet and nothing of any significance in the medium range we have a shot (not a guarantee, this is weather) at no named storms in the Atlantic in August. This is quite rare. Last time that happened was 1997. But we have 16 days to go to make it the 2nd time in a quarter century.

      1. Just goes to show they’re are other factors to consider. There is no “clear cut” in prediction, only statistics. 🙂

  19. This would stink in winter.

    4-5 days ago, projecting a decent snowfall.

    Then the next 2 days, it’s torturous back and forth.

    Then the last 12-24 hrs, reality of little or no snow sets in.

    This morning, the depression of no snow sets in.

    Then, with nearly all the other 12z stuff saying no snow, the 12z Euro shows a blizzard and offers potentially a glimmer of hope that you know you shouldn’t bite on, but …………

    1. When I worked as a software engineer, a group of us enjoyed discussing such geeky things. The more we talked about probability, the more we realized we actually didn’t know what was going on.

      A great example is the Monty Hall Problem. It is very simple to state, and very counterintuitive. So much so that some professional mathematicians completely embarrassed themselves arguing in public with Marilyn vos Savant of the “Ask Marilyn” column. If only they had taken a few minutes to write a computer program to simulate the problem, they could have saved their reputations!

      1. You got my attention. Found the Monty Hall Problem. When I get to a larger screen, will look into it.

  21. Spoke to my daughter in Glasgow just now. She and her mother (my ex-wife) are enjoying an evening meal, sitting by the fire. My daughter’s apartment has an old-fashioned fireplace, which is in use year round. Mother and daughter strolled through Glasgow in light rain all day. It’s very green everywhere. It’s a good thing local (Boston) trees and vegetation can’t read this blog, otherwise they’d be getting very jealous.

  22. 12z ECMWF is like old school NAM / ETA with its convective feedback driving QPF in SNE stemming from the offshore convection in the mid-Atlantic and further offshore to our southeast.

      1. The larva version … like it.
        Though given model performance this summer give me the AVN/MRF/ETA/NGM at this point.

    1. I do know that. But I’m going for it anyway.

      And that doesn’t mean it is what I think will happen. I just would hope for it against all odds.

      1. I hope it does too. I would not mind one bit if Wednesday’s Hampton Beach fw are postponed until Friday if it means we get a good solid rain event.

  25. The only rain NWS Boston has in the forecast for my area is isolated showers for Wednesday. All other days are DRY. That’s not a bad way to lean right now. 😉

    1. Well you can tell which solution he isn’t going for based on that. 🙂 I’m in the same camp at the moment, but hoping for more.

    1. I remember one called Angel Falls that was something I have a vivid memory of on my Viewmaster. Now I’m dating myself. 😛

  29. Thanks, TK.

    We returned today from 3 weeks on the Cape to 2 flopped, brown lilies and 2 azalea bushes each of which had some dead brown branches. I’m grateful we took the outdoor potted plants along! We’ll definitely need to start watering the azaleas.

    The Cape was mostly dry, but the vegetation, at least near ponds, seems to be hanging in. The hydrangeas are pretty sad, though.

    1. So glad you could get away for a while.

      I think I saw tears on our hydrangeas leaves ….well if they had water in them, I would have. Trees are showing signs of struggle out this way also. Birds are very quiet except hummingbirds who are higher in number than I’ve seen.

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