Tuesday August 16 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

What once looked like a 3-day wet weather event according to the models is just down to a minimal 1-day thing, with very limited help for our drought. First, today, one of the days that originally looked cloudier and wetter, starts out quite nice as a weak area of high pressure holds on for a few more hours. Low pressure developing to our south will send its cloud shield northward into the region as the day goes on, thickening up more quickly over Cape Cod then into the rest of southeastern MA and RI, and these areas may see some rain drops before the end of the afternoon and more certainly this evening. That low will move northeast, then north, then hook back to the northwest as it passes to our east, but close enough to bring some rainfall to much of the WHW forecast area from late tonight into much of Wednesday, although areas to the southwest and west will have the lightest and most spotty rain while areas to the east see a steadier area. And it is these areas to the east which have the potential for 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain. Even this close to the event, there are still some significant enough model differences to try to confuse the forecaster, but this seems to be the best-bet scenario. Whatever wet weather we get tapers off Wednesday night, but as the low starts to pull away early Thursday, there may be one wrap-around shower area that gets southern NH and/or northern MA with a brief bout of rainfall to start the day, otherwise looks for a sun/cloud mix, dry air, but warmer with a land breeze behind the departing low Thursday. High pressure builds in with great summer weather late in the week, but you will notice an increase in humidity as we move through Friday and Saturday.

TODAY: Sun to start, then increasing clouds from south to north. Rain develops later in the day South Coast especially southern RI to Cape Cod. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s, highest South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely RI, eastern MA, and moving into southeastern NH, with periods of rain to the west. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts in eastern coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain and drizzle, steadiest in eastern MA and southeastern NH. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially eastern coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly evening. Areas of fog early. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling into and eventually through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief passing shower possible southern NH and northern MA early. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

Looks like the rest of the weekend finishes up rain-free and warm August 21. Humidity stays high and shower chances go up mid period then drier air arrives late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

Still looking for a southwesterly to westerly air flow in general with limited rain opportunities and near to above normal temperatures late August.

82 thoughts on “Tuesday August 16 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)”

    1. This will be a “slower” rain too, which helps condition the soil for a follow up.

      The problem: no real follow up in the cards soon enough to maximize the benefit.

      1. I posted one of the Mets examples a couple of days ago. I will take a half an inch of steady rain over a deluge of a few inches. Fingers crossed we see rain here

        1. 1/2 inch over a day is definitely better than 2 inches in 1 hour. Absolutely.

          Petey B has mentioned this on air as well.

          Hoping we get the higher end of my range in most of the region, but I’m still not holding my breath. Haha!

  15. Is the track of the low significantly closer to SNE than previous runs? Is that the reason for the “wetter” scenario for tomorrow?

    Last evening did not look good.

    1. The 3km NAM & HRRR hook the low center left sooner. This results in a wetter forecast. But, it’s still a model “forecast” and I’m still not holding my breath.

  16. Almost exactly 31 years ago (Noon to be exact), Tropical Storm Bob formed 185 miles east-southeast of Freeport in the Bahamas. The 72 hour forecast at that point (valid 12z Monday 8/19) was for Bob to be a 70 knot hurricane centered about 130 miles east of Jacksonville, FL moving north-northwestward.

            2. Tropical Storm Irene officially was a 55-knot tropical storm when it made landfall at Coney Island, Brooklyn, NY at 1300z on August 28, 2011.

              From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf

              “Irene continued moving north-northeastward and the center moved over Coney Island, Brooklyn, New York around 1300 UTC 28 August, and then over Manhattan, New York City about 1 h later. Once again, the storm’s strongest winds at the time of landfall (55 kt) continued to occur primarily well to the east of the center. “

            3. What most remember about tropical storm Irene was the vast destruction it caused inland – 11 inches of rain in Vermont that wiped out roads and homes and hiking trails. Some of that can still be seen today.

              Caused a total of 49 deaths too. Powerful effects way beyond the wind factor.

              1. I remember that. Was it Waterbury? Or a W town

                I think in along 302 between Intervale and bretton woods also. My memory is vague on both but I do recall whatever area it was had significant damage.

  21. Things are certainly looking better for rain chances.
    We’re almost at now casting for this event.

    Waiting to see 18Z HRRR

  22. Hopefully tomorrow’s rain will be tomorrow “night’s” rain as well, at least up until midnight.

    1. I’ll gladly take the postponement of Hampton Beach fireworks from Wed to Fri if it means better rainfall.

    1. I’m thinking of heading to the coast (Rockport, specifically) for PM high tide tomorrow. Should be some decent surf to view.

      Even if the rain were to stay further east, the orientation of the surface feature will still provide the bigger swells & surf.

      There are 3 storms in recorded history to make landfall on the Maine coast as hurricanes. Two of them, the Saxby Gale in Oct 1869 and Hurricane Bob in 1991 were on the classic track and had made initial landfalls in southeastern New England before making a second landfall in Maine. The only recorded storm to make its first landfall in New England on the Maine coast is Hurricane Gerda in 1969 which made landfall near Eastport as a category 2 storm, having taken a slight left hook in its track just prior. So that storm would be the closest to the track that Dave talks about, but not quite the same.

        1. I would love to view one of the big surf events from down in that area. It’s a bit far for me on a weekday after work but if we have a situation that I have more of a day available I will definitely consider it.

        1. Thanks! I wasn’t sure about that one. And info looking was not easy in the basement with a bad signal lol.

          1. Another correction, which you may not have been aware of. The Hurricane Re-Analysis Project adjusted Gerda to be a 70-knot hurricane at landfall just east of Machias, ME. Several years ago, they adjusted Saxby’s Gale to be a 90 knot hurricane at landfall near Brunswick, ME.

  28. Looks like a nice Wednesday washout for much of eastern New England! 🙂

    I never thought I would ever post something like that above on this blog. Temporary insanity? 😉

    1. Haha!
      It’s been a while. It looks wet either way – the amounts are still in a bit of question, but we’ll know in about 24 hours one way or another. 🙂

  29. So, the Euro was on to something after all. It hasn’t been performing well. But, it was the one model that bucked the trend. Admittedly, the amounts that showed up on yesterday’s run will not verify. But, it’s probably going to be about as steady a rainfall as we’ve had in a long time.

    1. I’d hesitate to give it too much credit because its focus was not quite lined up with the current short range guidance, and it backed off of that solution after for more than 1 run.

      The 12z run yesterday had a huge swath of 2″+ rainfall going all the way back to NY State and covering most of MA. This rooted from a double digit rainfall bullseye south of New England, which as JMA noted, is a classic convective feedback signature. So based on that, even if a higher rainfall amount takes place, the distribution will likely be different, as will the reason, and the Euro doesn’t really deserve credit because it was technically wrong anyway. 🙂

      The model is still struggling big time, so it’s hard to give it a full nod. There are some detail differences between that projection and the current one, when you take the entire atmosphere into account. All the guidance has struggled with this, including the short range stuff.

      The European model will need another upgrade and then will have to show me consistency better than it has recently for me to trust it anywhere close to the level I used to. 🙂

  30. Just for laughs, our friend the ICON model had a huge hit yesterday, now barely has any rain. 😉

  31. Re: NAM.

    The 12z runs showed quite a difference between the 12km and 3km versions of the model, with the higher res 3km being far wetter and the 12km being not-so-set.

    On the 18z runs, the differences continue somewhat, but now the 3km version hooks the low even sooner, so that it pulls the heavier rain even further south, now becoming basically a South Coast event, while much lighter amounts fall everywhere to the north, INCLUDING Boston. So no, this is not done evolving in the model world quite yet.

    Think it’s easy forecasting these things with the help of this guidance? 😉

  32. Use the NAMs and possibly HRRR with caution (especially NAM).
    3km NAM from 18z has a 20 inch rain bullseye south of Nantucket. Sorry, but 20 inches of rain will not be falling ANYWHERE. 😉 That’s a classic convective feedback signature.

    1. I’m a terrible dancer, but I’ll do it. 😉 At that time I’ll be hearing the “music” of tree frogs outside a friend’s condo. I’ll dance to their song, so long as nobody spies on me and takes video. 😛

          1. Hahahahahaha. I forgot but did say any time works so just did one. My oldest grand walked into the room, took one look said I look like a two year old which was an absolutely perfect description and went back upstairs.

  34. Thanks for the explanation, TK, regarding the European model.

    At this point, I’ll take pretty much any amount above, say, 0.5 inch. It wouldn’t do a lot, but it would stop the bleeding so to speak. The vegetation looks quite stressed. I’d be too if I had practically no water in 7 weeks. Well, I wouldn’t just be stressed, I’d be dead.

    1. We went for a hike today to one of our usual places in Fitchburg. The vegetation is significantly worse looking than it was a few weeks ago, and even then it wasn’t so great.

      I didn’t complain about the lack of mosquitoes. But, the missing pollinators is a bit frightening.

      1. It is sad to see, SClarke. I drove through town today and noticed that the vegetation is worse even than a few days ago. The tangle of green directly along roads is gone. Birds are not close to as man as they were. Except hummers and we have more than ever. Our dragonflies who typically patrol their “area” higher up are now patrolling close to ground. Looking for dew?

  35. Thanks TK. Boy it’s dry, but no reason for panic around these parts. We can’t go into a long term drought in our party of the country. Now if you live west of Colorado

    Have been in Austria and Italy the last 3 weeks, I can tell you the lack of rain in northern Italy is just as bad as parts of the west. Lake Como and surrounding areas have been in multiple year droughts. Pho river is disaster at this point. Temps were so hot even in the Dolomites- roughly 5-7 K feet altitude fortunately nighttime temps still drop. Thanks goodness since no AC, I managed but you should have heard the kids. Ha.

  39. Dry slotting in the places that need rain the most. Very little rain fell here overnight. The bulk of it has stayed offshore. Hoping that pivots west but not looking good.

  40. Incredible…it looks like basically little to nothing, especially in the areas that really need it. This is really getting depressing.

  41. I hope everybody knows now that these things don’t just happen when snow is involved. 😉

    New weather post…

Comments are closed.