Wednesday August 17 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

I can’t say I’m surprised that the original multi-day beneficial rain threat has dwindled to a “gee I hope we can get a few hours of rain enough to wet the ground at least” event. For reasons (model-wise and otherwise) that I have already talked about on this blog, while staying hopeful I wasn’t going to hold my breath on this being a significant event for all of us. However there will still be some areas that get benefit out of this, maybe up to 1/2 inch of rain, favoring northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as mentioned on yesterday’s blog update. Elsewhere, I don’t hold out much hope for many areas seeing more than 1/4 inch. In fact, there are enough thin spots in the overcast this morning that the sun is shining through it. With low pressure moving to the north, keeping a lot of its influence over the water to our east, hooking it back just enough to get the previously-mentioned areas with a little more rain later on, the forecast from yesterday remains pretty much unchanged. One other thing to watch today will be for some minor coastal flooding due to rough surf and some larger ocean swells. This will be most likely a couple hours either side of high tide. We’ll still be under the influence of the circulation of this low pressure area on Thursday as it pulls away, so expect a few morning showers possibly in southern NH and northern MA, otherwise a day of lots of clouds, limited sun, and a gusty breeze. High pressure then builds in with a return to the feel of summer Friday through the coming weekend. Humidity, while on the rise, will remain in check until later in the weekend when it will rise to more uncomfortable levels.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of rain and drizzle, mostly insignificant, but some steadier rainfall more likely in northeastern MA and southern NH during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast with gusts 25-35 MPH Cape Ann and Cape Cod and up to 25 MPH remainder of coastal plain.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain most likely southern NH and northern MA. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling into and eventually through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief passing shower possible southern NH and northern MA early. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point below 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Higher humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance early next week then a trend toward seasonably warm and dry weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final days of August should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday August 17 2022 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  2. Thank you TK!
    O.00” in the rain gauge this morning here, very unfortunate as we desperately needed some rain. Looking at the radar it doesn’t appear that the rain will back into this area. There was even some rain overnight in the majority of Connecticut, stuck in the no precip hole once again. I guess we’re on to the next one.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The models fooled me again. Based on the latest yesterday afternoon and evening, I thought for sure we would
    get at least 1/2 inch and perhaps an inch or so. NOT SO!
    Awoke this morning to find DRY pavement!!! Radar looked
    so promising! Even this morning at 6 AM it looked like a big slug of rain was about to move in!!! NOPE! It fizzled to nothing.

    It’s like it comes in from the ocean only to dry up over
    our parched landscape! Pretty pathetic.

    Logan came in at 0.01 inch. Now there is a drought buster for you.

    TK, once again, you shined with the forecast!!

    Many thanks

  8. Thank you, TK.

    This isn’t good. And, I must say, I’m not expecting anything out of the possible showers next week, which many TV mets put on their forecasts late last night. One almost wonders if they’re doing this to make people happy. Everyone wants some rain at this point. Problem is every time they’ve put showers in the forecast – albeit with the caveat “chance of showers” – it hasn’t happened.

    Haven’t seen trees and bushes this sad looking in a long time. We’ve had drought situations before, to be sure, but this particular one has occurred precisely during the period of peak sun and heat: July and August.

    By the way, I cannot imagine how difficult it must have been for Native Americans and then later the settlers from Europe to deal with these kinds of situations. While droughts can occur in England, they’re rare, short-lived, and not nearly as damaging as ours. It’s just hotter and sunnier here for longer periods of time, and our soil already sucks to high heaven compared to England’s (doesn’t retain moisture well).

    1. The early Native Americans and Euro settlers didn’t have our “climate change” so any droughts weren’t anywhere near this long lasting.

  9. Thank you. TK.

    It was so close that I could literally smell it. 0.01 here. I see toward the center of town it was 0.09.

  11. Thanks, TK…

    A measly 0.08 overnight

    23.55 year-to-date.

    Record driest year 27.31″ in 1965

  14. Philip, the 17th century was truly fascinating weather- and climate-wise. Very cold in many parts of the world, including most of continental Europe. It also featured droughts. There were in fact 9 noteworthy droughts in England: 1634, 1635, 1636, 1666, 1667, 1684, 1685, 1694, and 1695.

    There were a similar number of noteworthy droughts in North America, including a devastating one in 1611 and 1612. Droughts here tended to be worse than the ones experienced in England.

    The summer of 1623 saw perhaps the worst drought of them all, at least in New England. Here’s a nice recap of climate in New England in the 17th century. https://www.colonialsociety.org/node/1742

    A Boston Globe article from 2013 described the 17th century as one that was wrecked by climate: From droughts to wildfires to extreme cold. https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2013/07/06/century-world-wrecked-climate/gsvNRUK5dThU7d5cnEdZaK/story.html

    I do believe in climate change in our current era; especially the “world getting hotter” part. I also think humans can play a role in impacting climate change. But, we must always be cognizant of the cyclical nature of climate.

  15. Even my conservative forecast wasn’t conservative enough.

    I still think NE MA / SE NH has a shot to get to 0.25+ later today

  16. Driving home at 2am, I had very light drain/drizzle along 128 from about Needham down to Dedham. From Dedham to Avon, I had some bigger raindrops. When I got into the City of Champions, it was actually a steady light rain, the ground was wet, and there were actually some puddles. So, imagine my surprise when I woke up about 20 minutes and the sun was coming through the skylight in the bedroom. We had a whopping 0.09″ here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound.

    1. I drove thru a 15 second shower of big drops in Concord MA at 9:45pm.

      At home, barely enough to wet the ground overnight, dry ground and sun breaking through after that.

  19. Thanks TK !

    Sorry to see the radar !!

    At the NC border, headed south, eventually to Boca Raton, FL to move my daughter into FAU for college. Stopping at Tybee Island, GA for a few days to split the trip up a bit.

    2. Safe travels, Tom. Hard to believe your daughter is headed for college. Sending wishes for a great year to her!!

  20. Interesting how that wall of rain just to the east is going to completely miss, but the wall of heat/humidity is all set to return once again for the weekend. At least two more 90 degree days to add to our “endless” summer. And who knows how many more thereafter before this month ends? 🙁

    3. This summer imo hasn’t been to bad imo. Lots of days with low humidity. Sure some hot days but nothing to extreme. I think the lack of rain has been the big story, not the heat.

    1. The slice o’ sun is like a dry banding so it’s lined up and part of the circulation. It’s starting to fill in with cumulus clouds up my way.

      1. I was trying to keep them here, but they must be multiplying. I have yet to see the sun

        There has Been a consistent east wind for days….just an observation and not connected to anything other than we more often than not have a W or SW wind

      1. I’m loving following him more closely than I was. He comments are always no nonsense and positive. I need to stay away from the Covid page for a bit so I can get back to that.

  25. A friend just reminded me that the middleboro little league game is on ESPN at 3:00. Go Middleboro.

  27. Most heavier rain showers appear central and western mass. Perplexed as these areas were predicted to get least amount of precip. I dont know how the meteorologists do it. I’d throw in the towel by now lol.

    1. That’s diurnal, only indirectly related to the “storm”. It’s the response of the atmosphere to solar heating and cold air aloft.

      The thinner overcast out there allowed that to happen rather easily.

  29. Not a drop of rain in Boston. Nothing. My rain gauge didn’t register anything last night either. Brutal. This July/August period – during which there’s been plenty of sun and heat – could very well turn out to be the driest on record, and it might not even be that close, as in at least 1 inch less rain than the number 2 spot in the ranking. If it spits a few drops of rain next week I’ll surprised at this point.

  32. Cloud seeding: https://www.science.org/content/article/does-cloud-seeding-really-work-experiment-above-idaho-suggests-humans-can-turbocharge

    Russians, and the Soviets before the establishment of the Russian Federation, were really into cloud seeding.

    In Crimea, for example, in 2020 during a drought. And long before that throughout the Soviet Union.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg12416933-300-technology-soviet-union-creates-artificial-downpours/

    In fact, it began in earnest in the 1970s in the Soviet Union, but also apparently the U.S. Treaties were signed between the two countries on weather modification, and not using it for tactical advantages in war time. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1989/10/27/soviets-experiment-with-weather/cd5bb36c-927f-4d4e-8776-64d6b37f209b/

  35. Texas has been just as dry, if not drier, than most of New England recently. For several days now, the models show a much wetter pattern setting up there by early next week. Some models have as much as 5-10″ across north Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Obviously that much rain in a short period after a drought isn’t as beneficial as you’d hope, but hopefully, it’s a sign of things to come around here. Unfortunately, looking at some of the longer range versions of the Ensembles, they mostly show below normal precipitation through November.

    1. I was looking at the seasonal stuff myself the other day and not impressed with the prospects of drought relief anytime soon.

  36. Ssk. While my question above was for Olive, how is your landscape business doing with this drought.

    1. Can’t recall where you are. There were little cells popping up In several areas. I thought we might get something in SSutton but sadly no

  38. Quick sports note. In all my years of watching baseball I can’t remember a team with as much talent as the Yankees have, and having been so dominant for the first 50% of the season – well on on their way to a 110 or 115 win season – look in total disarray. It’s brutal. While the manager isn’t responsible for most of this, there’s got to be some accountability. Why the front office believes in Boone I’ll never quite understand.

    1. Great post, and I agree. However no matter what they are the face of the MLB. I respect the Yankees. 27 Championships. And a beautiful state of the art stadium.

  39. Quick shower in Back Bay. It rained hard VERY briefly. I mean only a couple of minutes. I hope a few more of these showers pull through.

  40. Before this slide by the Yankees some fans were comparing this team to the 98 Yankees who won 114 regular season games. They got off to a 52-18 start. As a Yankees fan anything short of a world series this season will be a failure. Today they brought up Estevan florial and oswaldo Cabrera to provide a spark.

    1. I really thought this Yankees team was a juggernaut. Though I’m not a Yankee fan, I love baseball and really like some of the Yankee players, including Judge (MVP, in my opinion). Something’s off, though, with the team right now and really for the past 6 weeks.

      They’re in a rain delay in NY right now. Sometimes rain delays can spark a team in a weird way. They’re down 4-2. Let’s see what happens.

  41. It’s a feel good feeling for 24 hours but the redsox win got no closer to the 1 game playoff game as the Blue Jays win. Before this 3 game winning streak they had a 21% chance of making the playoffs. Now they’ve actually dropped to 16%. Vegas is weird but they aren’t in this to lose. Go Redsox!!

    1. Yes, it’s an uphill battle for the Sox. Playing better right now, which is good. BUT, they’ve got a tough road ahead with lots of games against AL East teams. They also have to overcome several teams just to get into a playoff spot. We’ll see. I wrote them off, which is dumb of me, I know. I am after all a diehard Sox fan.

  42. Boston experienced a 3-degree temp rise from 68 to 71 late tonight after the wind flipped from north to west. Not unusual. The land was much warmer today while the coastal plain had cooler air via the Gulf of Maine.

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