Friday August 19 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

The return to the feel of summer begins today as a warmer westerly flow between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure southwest of New England brings in warmer air but with fairly low humidity. The high slides offshore for the weekend bringing a very warm and increasingly humid southwesterly air flow to our region, though humidity levels will stay below the oppressive category despite their noticeable rise. Cloud cover will be limited much of the time, with just passing patches of clouds lingering today around the base of upper level low pressure as it departs while a few fair-weather cumulus will pop up and drift along in the wind. Tomorrow’s cumulus pop-up should be a little more prolific but not enough to interrupt the sun for long periods of time. I’m keeping the shower chance out of my forecast but a shower or storm may pop up in the mountains to our west, but something to watch just in case one wanders into the western reaches of the region or pops up in those areas due to an outflow boundary later in the day. Also, a sea breeze may get going in coastal areas for a while Saturday, keeping temperatures in check there while inland areas heat more. Sunday will be similar in terms of heating up best inland while a sea breeze can scale things back at the coast, and this time the sky coverage may be more from higher clouds, but thin so that they only veil the sun. Bottom line: Nice summertime stretch of weather through the weekend. Things change early next week as a broad area of low pressure crosses the region from west to east. Its warm front brings lots of clouds and the threat of some shower activity Monday, with a spike in humidity, setting up a shower and thunderstorm chance as the cold front crosses on Tuesday. Details can’t be determined for days 4 & 5 yet so that will take place later.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds by midday-afternoon. Highs 80-85 coast, 85-90 inland. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog overnight interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 83-90 except cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

High pressure re-gains control with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures dominant until late period when a shower and thunderstorm chance re-appears with a disturbance moving in.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

The final days of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time. One stronger front from Canada may introduce a brief shot of cooler air but I don’t have high confidence in this at this time.

75 thoughts on “Friday August 19 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK. I noticed that we have a west wind for the first time in a while. Perhaps that has more significance than I thought. Either way, it is a perfect day to celebrate Mac’s birthday.

    Happy birthday to Mrs SClarke also.

    1. Amazing how so many birthdays are during the summer months, at least it seems that way. Mine isn’t until late November just after Thanksgiving.

      1. I’ve always wondered how to celebrate a loved one’s birthday long after they passed on. All I can do is think about them for a minute or so then move on for the rest of the day. 🙂

    1. As always, thank you for these

      Also a year ago today Henri graced us with four inches of rain in an hour, a sink hole, a crack in our foundation and an hour or better in the basement during a tornado warning. What a difference a year makes

      1. Henri didn’t make landfall until August 22. On August 19, it was a few hundred miles south of Bermuda moving westward, and would not have any impact on the region for another 60+ hours. Even when it did, all of the rain was focused on western CT, western MA, and NY.

        A cold front came through on August 19 producing some heavy thunderstorms, but it had zero association to Henri.

    2. Thanks Jimmy. We could sure use a “Bob” today some 31 years later as far as rain is concerned. Last I saw, the tropics are still quiet if not dead.

  9. Warm but not oppressive. But too warm to start doing something about my dead lawn. I usually overseed in the next week or 2 but that requires water and cooler temps. Neither of which will happen.

    1. I was going to ask how your lawn is. Sounds like most here. Some are still watering but I think just over half or maybe two thirds have stopped.

      I’m hoping in a few weeks we can water enough go seed but a, also not holding my breath

      1. My drop dead date to seed is usually around or just after Labor Day. But it requires constant watering multiple times a day to keep the seed wet. If things stay the way they are, water restrictions will last well into the fall so not gonna waste money on good seed if I can’t water it

  11. Hurricane Bob if I remember correctly affected extreme southeastern Massachusetts and southern RI. Gloria like I’ve said before the worst hurricane I’ve experienced with winds for 3-4 hours of 70-80 mph. I can still hear the snapping sounds of branches breaking and the scary whistling sound coming between the houses from those winds.

    1. I heard from a WBZ radio anchor this morning that this fall’s foliage will be much later than usual.

  13. Saw more drought damage on my run. More fallen branches, some very large. Sad spectacle.

    Happy Birthday to SClarke’s wife and Mac, Vicki’s husband who sadly passed away several years ago.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    31 years ago today, eight of us were scheduled to sail from Boston to Martha’s Vineyard to celebrate my father-in-law’s birthday. Needless to say, that didn’t happen! But we did get to go the next day, and the swells were impressive.

  16. Thanks, TK…

    Thinking of you today, Vicki.
    Happy Birthday, Mrs. SClarke!

    On August 18, we were in Pt. Independence, Onset, boarding up the family cottage and pulling in the boat. We were being scoffed at by passerbys who told us that the storm wasn’t going to hit us.

    I heard stories that Rt. 495 traffic was a parking lot in the middle of the night with people trying to reach the Cape to pull their boats in. People were driving on the grassy median!

    I was working a summer job at a camp in Westport that year. Later in that week, I went down to the camp beach on Brayton Point on the Massachusetts-Rhode Island line. Sadly, there were dozens of dead rabbits in the dunes that perished in the storm surge,

    I had friends who rode out the storm in Onset and snapped these photos:

    https://imgur.com/McZ2ihn
    https://imgur.com/swEELa3
    https://imgur.com/rUrI2pq

  17. Will the streak continue for another year without a hurricane making landfall in SNE??? Time will tell

  20. Happy Birthday to all who are celebrating today. And to Mac, who I believe is smiling down at you , Vicki.

    Hurricane Gloria didn’t make much of an impact on us in Framingham. Just a weird fog that morning that was very low on the ground and some gusts of wind. But the next day a cold front came through w/heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning.

  21. My wife says “Thank you!” for the kind birthday wishes.

    Since one of her favorite things in the world is to work outside in her gardens, today’s weather is a great gift.

    1. Logan has been overachieving a lot this summer so no surprise. I bet they do it again tomorrow, if not Sunday as well.

      Does this make it 20 now? I’ve lost count.

  24. Unlike Rainshine, Gloria impacted us more than Bob. Location even in the same town sure makes a difference. We lost a series of trees in our neighborhood. The wind sounded like a locomotive. Bob seemed tame in comparison wind wise, but flooding was much worse than Gloria

    1. One of the factors at least in a good portion of the region is that Gloria was the first storm with widespread wind of that magnitude with leaves on the trees and quite a while and there were a lot of trees ready to go. Bob was a little bit more confined to the southeast part of the region other than a period of powerful wind on the backside over more of the region, but a lot of the weak trees had already been taken down 6 years prior.

      So I think in comparison Gloria probably took down more trees in a wider area whereas Bob was more concentrated over a narrower path for its most significant damage.

      1. Makes sense. We didn’t have the flooding with Gloria either.

        And we didn’t lose power with either ….arghhhhh

  25. On this date in 1955 we were saying goodbye to Hurricane Diane. The 18+ inches of rain deposited by that storm still stands as a MA state record for 24 hours.

    The region was still recovering from the one-two punch of category 3 hurricane Carol and category 2 Hurricane Edna in 1954.

    In New England that recorded weather history we have never been impacted that severely by three tropical systems that close together outside of those three systems.

    1. Carol in 1955 was the one my mom and brother and I had to be rescued…by a family friend….because the ocean was coming into out rented cottage.

    1. The mid 1950s is an unprecedented period of time for tropical activity affecting New England. You can throw in Donna in 1960 if you want.

        1. My 2 oldest brothers told me stories about Donna as they were old enough to remember it well.

          One of them was a loose roof on a screen house being repeatedly blown up then slamming down. My uncle and father went out there mid-storm to tie it down and it worked.

      1. My guess above (20) was almost right and it still may be realized after tomorrow and Sunday. Ha!! 🙂

  28. Today was one of only a few days this summer that the temps over-achieved my expectations in the coastal plain. The reason at places like Boston: WNW-NW wind and much drier air than I expected. 92 / 46. That’s desert dry for Boston. 😉

  29. Good news on the Texas drought front…

    They should be receiving a significant amount of rain during the next 8 to 10 days. It will likely lead to some flooding issues, which is not the good news. The better news is that the flooding should be non-severe, and the even better news is the drought is going to take a big hit there.

    The Southwest is having a great run of wet weather which is making a significant impact in the drought. It’s a long-term drought though so don’t expect it to just “go away”. It will take time.

  31. Gloria vs Bob

    Why were Gloria and Bob so much different around here? Simple – the track. As tropical systems move up the East Coast (and especially as they start undergoing extratropical transformation), they become lopsided. The majority of the precipitation shifts to the western half of the storm, and the strong winds are mainly confined to the eastern half of the storm. These storms are usually moving at a fast clip (average 25-30 mph), and that forward speed gets added to the max sustained winds on the right side, and subtracted from the left side.

    Gloria went up the Connecticut Valley. So, wind gusts of 50-70 mph were common across the eastern two thirds of southern New England, with most places receiving less than 1″ of rainfall. From western Mass into NY, there was 4-8″ of rain, but wind gust were mainly under 40mph, except right near the center.

    Bob crossed southern RI and southeastern MA. So, they strong winds were confined to Cape Cod and parts of extreme SE Mass (where gusts exceeded 100mph in spots, with less than 1″ of rain, while the rest of central and eastern MA/RI, eastern CT got 4-8″ rain, but wind gusts were in the 30-50mph range, except for when the center was crossing MA and the backlash as it moved into Massachusetts Bay.

  32. Boca: temp 90F, dp: 77F. I’m not sure I can describe what that feels like 🙂

    Day 17 at Logan, I think. Many warm to hot projections on model runs over the past many days.

    I think with the drought, there is a slight, very slight chance to approach 30 (90F) days at Logan.

    42 days to Sept 30th, need 13 more. That’s close to 33%, which makes it very unlikely. ……… But with the dry ground, what would be 85, 86F might end up being 90F. Depends on seabreeze potential at Logan and how long the warm/hot pattern lasts.

    1. Realistically, you have until September 15. Boston has only reached 90 after 9/15 34 times in 150 years of records, about once every 5 years. Out of those 34 times, 21 occurred before 1954. It’s only happed 4 times in the last 39 years:

      90 – 9/16/1991
      91 – 9/15/1993
      93 – 9/26/2007
      92 – 9/23/2019

      1. Thanks SAK, so it’s 12 days needed in about the next 25 days.

        Ok well, maybe 20-24 for this warm season when all is said and done.

          1. Still could, but statistically unlikely. And the trend has been for fewer late season 90+ days.

            You’re also looking at a sun angle that’s nowhere NEAR June / July, along with much shorter daylight in comparison to then too. It makes a big difference.
            Even in the highly anomalous 1983 heat, just about all of that occurred in the first 2/3 of the month. The last “really hot” day was September 20.

  34. Seeing the projections of more >90F days is making me ill. I already thought yesterday was way too warm. I like being outdoors and doing things (running, hiking, biking, soccer, frisbee, whatever). But it’s nearly impossible in this kind of weather.

    1. I have never complained about any weather. I know it doesn’t do any good so looking at it positively seems to make more sense.

      BUT I sure understand what you mean about enjoying being outside. Like you, I love being outside. Not being able to be out because the heat seems to be having more of an affect on me health wise as I get older is bothersome.

      I’ve said before that it seems very odd that the only season I can’t be out is summer.

      I wonder also if this has something to do with Covid. I feel that some of us are limited in where we can go so having outdoors removed from choices is one more insult.

    2. Well, we’re not going back to what we had in the hot stretch previously. Dew points generally modest. When we do spike them, we cool down a bit. Lower sun angle makes a big difference too. I wouldn’t let the projections make you ill. There may very well be fewer than “projected”. 🙂

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