Saturday August 20 2022 Forecast (9:24AM)

72 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

A summer weekend with mainly fair weather and modest humidity – not great for our drought but very good for outdoor activities. The only thing we have to watch for is a couple isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses the area, otherwise high pressure will be in general control and most areas will have a rain-free weekend. Monday, things change as a disturbance approaches and moves into the region with its warm front bringing a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, a spike of humidity. It will continue humid into Tuesday along with a shower and thunderstorm chance as a cold front crosses the region. This front will bring drier air in by Wednesday but clouds may be stubborn as the frontal boundary hangs up close to the South Coast, where there may even be a few showers.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds morning. Sun and puffy clouds afternoon with only a slight chance of a couple isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly interior locations west and northwest of Boston. Highs 85-92 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog overnight interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 83-90 except cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

Model issues make using medium range guidance iffy at best, but from what I can discern of the pattern it looks mostly dry with above normal temperatures August 25-27 then a shower / thunderstorm chance later in the period with a frontal boundary moving into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

The end of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

72 thoughts on “Saturday August 20 2022 Forecast (9:24AM)”

    1. The drought will trigger some trees into early dormancy. The same kind of thing happens here too. Certain trees will go early like in 2016, but they can still be rather bright in color. There will be a second very nice surge of rustics later, regardless of the drought. Most trees do very well in a drought, but some of the older ones, and certain types, will react a bit more.

    1. You never have to apologize for complaining. If that was the case, I should apologize for never complaining about it. 😉 Haha!

      On your previous post I was just showing you the reasons why this will be a little easier to take than the big hot stretch we had before. 🙂

  4. Hazy sky this morning. I’m hearing there are a few fires in the area where we used to live. Rainshine. I’m not sure how close the one on the Sudbury/Marlboro line is. I’m thinking that it is around the Wayside Country Store. They are now looking for a possible fire on the Weston/Wayland line. The aqueducts run through that area,

    There doesn’t seem to be much wind…at least out here…so hopefully that will help

    1. This isn’t the same area, but driving down I-95 south from southeastern NH toward home late last night I passed by 3 distinctive areas that basically smelled of brushfire smoke badly enough that it irritated my eyes a little bit even with my windows up and AC on. It looked like I was driving in a light fog, but of course it was smoke.

        1. I don’t think it was the Rockport fire only because I was in Rockport on Wednesday while this fire was burning and I drove very very close to the location of the fire and you could barely detect any smoke and that was being on the downwind side. I think this is coming more from spot fires along the I-95 corridor. And based on the wind direction last night some of that may have been from the Breakheart Reservation fire.

    2. We’ve been getting a lot of that this season which of course is nothing new for the GFS model. It is now quite the running joke throughout the meteorological community. 😉

  9. Thanks, TK!

    The discussion on hurricanes yesterday made me recall a story that my grandmother told me of a baby being swept out to sea in Onset during Hurricane Carol in 1954. I also thought it was just a story until I found this article in the New England Historical Society. The hurricane (apparently without warning) trapped families on Onset Island (on the western of the Canal) and, tragically, a baby was lost when she or he slipped from her or his mom’s arms.

    https://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/hurricane-carol-deadly-name-retired/

    Also, I have mentioned it here a couple of time that the PBS station in Providence produced an Emmy-award winning documentary, Wake of ’38, on the 1938 hurricane. It’s outstanding and it’s also on YouTube. If you have an hour, it’s well worth the watch.
    If not, bookmark it.

    The story of the family who survived the storm on what was left of the roof of their home is amazing!!! (at 22:10)

    Here’s the link:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmo0Ur7q0Ew&t=1478s

    2. Awesome. I’ve talked on here about my mom’s 1938 stories and I will watch

      Re 1954…there was no warning of immediate danger. My dad left my mom, brother and me at our rented Humarock house and headed to work in Boston. They knew there was a hurricane off the coast of NC. But my dad said he’d back that afternoon in plenty of time to beat the storm.

      1. Logan will not get to 90. My range of 85-92 with cooler coast puts them in the “cooler coast” zone. Maybe 85 if they can get the wind to go S for a bit.

  13. Middleboro Little League plays an elimination game this evening against Pennsylvania. The winner stays alive and the loser is out of the double-elimination tourney. All 20 teams will attend the MLB Little League Classic tomorrow night between the Sox and the O’s.

    The town of Middleborough has gone Little League crazy this week. Many signs of support up all over town and many watch parties at local restaurants and watering holes. Great to see!

    2. I love that kind of stuff and win or lose they should all be proud!

      But let’s hope they can pull this off!

      1. It would be nice to get one win in a very tough tournament. So many talented teams and players! Tennessee and Hawai’i are undefeated, so is Canada.

        Certainly better than the Red Sox! 🙂 What was THAT last night in Baltimore???? Yankees continue to reel.

    3. I am truly enjoying watching the games.

      What time does middleboro play tonight. I’m recording all but want to plan dinner so I can watch live 🙂

      I love that your town is so involved. It is heartwarming

      I watched Tennessee play Utah and spent a good amount of time shedding tears. When the Tennessee team (including the coach) replaced its caps with Utah’s caps before the first pitch to honor Utah’s Easton after serious injuries from falling from his bunk…..well I’m still crying. Ill find a link and post below for anyone interested

    1. There is still plenty of afternoon time to get to 90 with a wind shift. Six o’clock jump?

      Dave Epstein had a 91 for next Friday which probably means 90s for that weekend. 🙁

      1. No, it actually means 90s for Friday, and has nothing to do with next weekend, when the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/Blend of Models all have temperatures below 90 both Saturday and Sunday.

      2. Is the 6:00 pm jump happen this late in summer? Or is it more in July and early August. The sun sets around 7:30 now. It seems we hit peak temperatures around 3-3:30 hold steady for about 1-1.5 hours. Then around 4:30-5 temperatures begin to fall slowly until about 7:15-7:30 then the temperatures drops like 3-5 degrees over like 30 minutes between 730-8.

      3. The trend is a little cooler for next weekend.

        I will take the warm weather on Friday if it happens though as I will likely be at a water park. 🙂

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Yes, we got an automated call from the police chief warning of a brush fire on the Marlboro/Hudson line affecting several roads to the north and west of Sudbury. So far, this morning, we have not smelled smoke. We live near Sudbury Ctre. I put on air conditioner in case. Strange thing is that 2 days ago, Thurs., we got a strong smell of smoke outside. Only fires I knew of were up in Saugus. My eyes and throat have been burning off and on for several days. But it is calm out now. And it just clouded up. Blue sky w/white clouds. Didn’t hear about Wayland fires. But I am not surprised that they are there. Wondering if only a tropical storm will break this drought of several days of heavy rain. Or must we wait until the supposedly bad winter ahead. The weather is crazy for sure. Climate change; viruses; so many food recalls(don’t eat almonds from CA). Sad world nowadays.

    1. There are several ways to break a drought. One tropical system probably would not do it.

      Either way, the best way to break a drought is in stages. We will get there. This particular drought is similar to the 2016 one and we are in a location that doesn’t get long-term droughts like the much larger scope ones in the western and southwestern US or other parts of the world. So in that regard we are quite lucky.

      We have not had a drought last more than 18 months in this area since the 1960s. This one will not likely rival that one.

    2. Rainshine, I think the Marlboro fire has been ongoing for a few days. It may be that fire you smelled. One report I read today is that this is a flare up. It wasn’t from the best source so I am not positive

  18. Logan back down to 81 with ENE wind at 13 mph

    It is 89 here in JP after being 91 a little while ago. Some clouds have blocked out the sun. 🙂

  19. Some convection firing. A nice little cell out by Vickies way

    between Dudley and Webster,

    Cells “appear” to by pulsing to me.

  20. JP porch fest in on today.

    We have a band set up in the driveway across the street.
    There are people sitting on our brown front lawn.

    Stinken jazz band! I can’t stand it! It is extremely annoying for me. Yeah I know, people love it, just not I. 🙂

    Some sort of funk band is scheduled for later. At least that
    would be a little more tolerable. I wish we had some sort of rock band! No such luck. How about some Irish music? That would be OK Or Spanish music? Rythm and blues. Country even. At this point I would even take rap. Anything but jazz!!!!!!

    1. I love the idea of a porch fest. I don’t mind jazz. But it isn’t my favorite by any stretch. Oldies would work for me or swing….

      1. Perhaps I should have said all of those. I think I’ve listened to every style of music that you listed today…

        But right now I am in the middle of a very long set of Led Zeppelin. Happy birthday Robert Plant!

  21. Looks like 86 maximum for Logan unless something funny happens later.

    With the hotspot Norwood at 93 I could not completely rule out Logan making a run at 90 later but honestly it would surprise me. We have to keep in mind the already noticeably shorter daylight and lower sun angle as factors in going against Logan getting seven or more degrees out of a late day wind shift. Worth keeping an eye on though.

    1. When the seabreeze shut off at Logan, the wind went SSW and the temp spiked to 90 for about 10-15 minutes before starting to drop again.

      1. What’s left of it, if any at all, looks to pass South of me. Figures. I hope a new one pops just a tad North of this one.

  24. Logan hit 90 yesterday thanks to the “six o’clock jump” or in this case, the “four o’clock” jump as of 4:17 p.m. I bet they get to 90 or higher again today. I certainly won’t bet against it. 😉

    #20

  25. One weather aspect of our visit to South Florida in mid/late August ……

    Experiencing what kind of heat and humidity builds up in the atmosphere by this time of year down here.

    With the right flow aloft, I can see why hurricane heat engines can maximize to become a Katrina, Dorian, Camille, etc. The heat energy available to them is incredibly plentiful.

    8am ob for Boca: Temp: 86F, dew point: 75F Heat Index: 95F

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