Monday August 22 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)

90 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

Our best shot at beneficial rain to scratch the surface of the drought comes today as a warm front lifts toward and into the region ahead of advancing low pressure. A broad albeit weak trough of low pressure will help provide energy for this system, increasing the chance that at least a couple swaths of heavier rain and possible thunder occur with fairly widespread showers this afternoon and evening. My thinking is that a general 0.25 to 0.75 inch can be expected with spot amounts of 0.75 to over 1.00 inch are very possible. Some of the heavier rain can lead to quick areas of flooding, so keep that in mind if traveling. Once the warm front lifts through tonight, the rain chance dwindles to just a spot shower or thunderstorm in the warm sector, but what will be a relatively cooler (compared to the weekend) but humid day today will transition to a mild and muggy night. Tuesday, the low parenting the warm front will bring its sibling cold front across the region, triggering scattered showers and a few heavier thunderstorms. This does not look as widespread an event, nevertheless some heavy downpours are possible and can impact travel for brief times. The front will struggle to clear the area quickly and because of that some cloudiness may hang around Wednesday, so I’m not expecting complete clearing at this time. High pressure will push in though with dry weather returning including lower dew point air which will last through Thursday, a day that will feature more sun. On Friday, the high pushes offshore and we heat up a little bit with an increase in humidity, but an approaching cold front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day. The timing and coverage of this activity is uncertain, but early indications are that it will lack good support and therefore have limited coverage.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely with embedded downpours and possible thunder from south to north during the afternoon and evening. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas. Isolated showers / thunderstorms possible. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, favoring areas in the I-95 corridor westward. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be variable and briefly gusty around any shower or storms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

There is a little uncertainty in the forecast for the final weekend of August (27-28) with disagreement in the medium range guidance. Leaning toward a sun/cloud mix Saturday (27) with lower dew points, and more humid air and cloud cover for Sunday (28) but not sure yet if showers will threaten. Fine-tuning of this outlook will take place as the week goes on. With uncertainty to start this period, there is obviously some beyond that as well and we’ll be watching for a frontal boundary to approach and pass the region sometime in the last few days of the month with a shower and thunderstorm threat.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Early indications are for high pressure to dominate the first several days of September with dry weather, starting seasonable then warming up, and a chance of some unsettled weather by the end of the period.

90 thoughts on “Monday August 22 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  2. NOTE: A lot of Boston’s northern suburbs are blanketed in smoke from the Saugus area based on the current wind direction. I can smell it here inside the house with all the windows closed.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Best of luck on your mother’s eye procedure this morning! 🙂

    And have a good time at Six Flags on Friday. We may notch yet another 90 that day?

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Wishing your mom well.

    Also hoping the front is late enough Friday so you enjoy six flags but cleared out early enough for my brother and his sister and brother in law to join my entire family for hugs and memories of my sister in law.

    1. Personally I’d love to see a thunderstorm at Six Flags, but it’s Nate’s birthday so this is for him really.

      Maybe the front can wait till Saturday AM haha

      1. Nooooooo on Saturday. I of course was not clear. We are hosting everyone here Saturday. 16 people…7 kids….in the house is not my first choice.

        I’m hoping the front straddles the two days.

  10. It’s astounding how often KBOX radar goes down right at the start of a bigger event…

    5 times now in recent memory.

  16. I like weather.us

    Then use the menu to select the radar and tap on Boston.

    Multiple options on top of radar page including Doppler.

    Something with opposite wind directions now wsw of Nantucket.

  17. It’s neat on radar.

    Some echoes, I’m guessing the highest level ones are moving SW to NE. Some echoes, moving SE to NW. At the lowest levels, north of an approaching warm front, the sfc winds are E to NE. Clearly the spc and Taunton don’t mention any opportunity of a weak tornado, so I wonder what ingredients are missing ? Maybe all of them, 🙂

  20. Standing by to close my windows as rain is approaching. Into light green echoes here, but nothing reaching the ground yet.

  22. TK, I never saw where you mentioned you Mom’s procedure, but I see all of these comments and want to wish her the best.

  23. Some occasional very light rain now occurring here in JP. 🙂

    waiting for a bit heavier rain. Not here yet

  25. NWS Boston/Norton Skywarn @WX1BOX
    27m
    Rainfall Reports (1″ or more):
    Plympton, MA: 2.55″ (2.35″ of rain in 1 hour)
    Plymouth, MA: 2.51″
    Kingston, MA: 2.22″
    Exeter, RI: 1.86″
    Duxbury, MA: 1.51″
    Carver, MA: 1.43″
    Middleborough, MA: 1.42″
    West Kingston, RI: 1.14″
    Hope Valley, RI: 1.11

    1. Thank you.

      Now IF ONLY some of that could get in here.
      Rain has picked up, but nothing to write home about.
      definitely RAINING though and I am thankful for that.

      Let’s keep it up.

      But if we keep it up then it won’t come down.

    2. As I mentioned yesterday, the operational runs are fun to look at, but I put little stock in them that far out. At that range, I focus mainly on the Ensembles. They still have several members that should at least a threat to the East Coast (and a few into the Gulf).

      1. Yes, I understand. I just looked at the GFS ensembles and the Euro ensembles and was disappointed to be sure.
        Long way to go. We shall see.

  27. Nice steady moderate RAIN falling here.
    PERFECT for the vegetation. Not hard enough for all of
    that run off.

  28. Second batch has a better shot further up the I-95 belt.

    It’s a start. We have tomorrow’s threat, but unfortunately although not surprisingly we follow that with a dry stretch.

  34. The glob of rain in central mass and Connecticut looks like it’s going slowly North? Not much left for eastern Mass for the locations that need it the most.

  37. Crap STUCK in the middle yet again,
    Rain to the East and Rain to the West but NOTHING HERE now nor for awhile and in fact, this may be it for today!

    We picked up perhaps 0.1 to NO more than 0.2 inch

      1. 0.16 inch is all she wrote where I am.

        I am not going out on a limb to say that Boston will beat, no, shatter, its previous driest July/August period. Sure, we may have some showers between now and August 31st, but it ain’t going to add up to the needed amount to even tie for 2nd place on the list. That would be another ~1.35 inches. 1.35 inches ain’t happening between now and August 31st. Of course, I could be wrong. But, it’s probably best at this point to be bold in predicting that we’re staying well below a total (!) of 2 inches for July and August.

        1. If Boston was just 15 or so miles south (Hingham to Plymouth) they would have amounts over 2 inches. Also Worcester got a decent soaking I believe?

        2. Don’t completely count it out. A disturbance sometime in the last 3 days of the month can do it. It’s a long-shot at this point in time, but we’ll see how things shape up as we get closer.

          1. You are correct. I’m not counting it out. I’m just going out on a limb – that may be sawed off with that end of the month possible soaker – and predicting we’ll be number one in the record books for the driest July/August.

            Olive, you are correct. If Boston was, say, where Scituate is, we’d have had more rain. Certainly if Boston was where Plymouth is, we would have. I could tell the trees that if they had only been planted in Plymouth they’d be much happier today. But, I’d probably get whacked by a falling branch at that point.

            1. But as it turns out, Boston is where Boston is. 😉

              Sorry, I could not resist that. 😛

        3. Logan was at 0.89″ before today for July/August, and has received 0.39″ (and counting) today, which puts it up to 1.28″ since July 1. The record is 2.03″, set in 1965. Boston is only 0.75″ shy of the record now with more rain possible tonight, tomorrow, Friday, and who knows what next week.

          BTW, Boston’s record for driest 60 day period is 0.96″ in the 60 days ending 10/14/1930, and counting today, Boston is at 1.93″ over the past 60 days, which doesn’t even crack the Top 100 for driest 60-day stretches in Boston.

          1. I remember my brother David telling me about 1965 (he was 9) when you could walk across a section of Horn Pond in Woburn on the west side of the causeway that separates it from the main pond, as it was completely dry and the mud had dried up enough to allow solid footing. Something similar happened in the mid 1970s I believe. In some of our dry spells in the 1980s and more recently in 2016 and this year, only the back side of that area is water-free, but still somewhat muddy. So nowhere really close to 1965. I can gauge the water level and compare it to other dry spells based on a few permanent structures in the water there, and what I determined yesterday is that the water level of Horn Pond is about 3 inches higher still than its lowest point in 2016. Not exactly to 2016 level, but not far away. I’m sure that water level will edge up a bit after today, and maybe tomorrow depending on where any showers/storm occur. We’ll see on that one…

  38. With a convective, system, there are almost always going to be haves and have-nots. No surprise here.

    On the plus side, the advanced activity over southeastern MA was heavier than expected and provided at least some benefit there, despite the run-off. Elsewhere, minor to scattered moderate benefit as we near the end of part 1 of the event.

    Part 2, tomorrow, only delivers scattered activity as I see it.

    The meso-low, which was forecast by some short range guidance (incorrectly) to deliver good rain to a swath of eastern MA, only clipped Cape Cod and is now east of the region, offshore. So we have lost out on that one.

    I know Barry B. always said “all systems fail in a drought” but even Barry knew that sometimes a system doesn’t fail, but it just doesn’t deliver to full potential everywhere. This system will range from delivering over its expectation for some, and under for many. That is the nature of weather my friends. We predict it the best we can, then sit back and see what happens…

  39. Seconding the motions by Joshua, Philip and JPDave:

    0.24″ here in westside Taunton.

    Paraphrasing Jimmy Buffett:

    “Rain to left; Rain to right”

    Way to go, Mom! Hope she feels better soon, TK!

  40. TK, you did a great job, as you’ve done throughout this long period of relative lack of rainfall.

    You may recall the note I posted on probability. We always have to be cognizant of probability. There are very few definites in life. Well, the sun will come up and it will set, even when we don’t see it doing so because of cloud cover. There are A TON of uncertain events – with a wide range of uncertainty – in both the natural (eg, weather) and social (eg, economy) worlds. Modeling both the natural and social is REALLY difficult. So many confounding variables.

  41. It sure was well forecast by TK and our Mets.

    I’m just home now and so far we have 1.10. Uxbridge was about the same.

  43. Eric said the reason The 90 yesterday did not count is that the quick obs ….which that was ..sometimes have rounding issues from Celsius

  44. SAK says Logan got 0.39 inch. I certainly believe SAK. I live fairly close to the airport but only got 0.16 inch. Certainly these differences can happen between different locales.

    Thanks for reminding me that the record was in 1965 and was 2.03 inches for July/August. For some reason I was thinking it was closer to 2.4 inches.

    I was aware that there have been drier 2-month stretches, SAK, though I didn’t have exact numbers. Thank you for providing them. The reason I do think this particular drought has been significant is because of the combination of heat (lots of sun) and dryness. I’ve observed a lot in nature for many decades. This particular drought is doing a number on vegetation of all kinds. I’m not saying it’s unprecedented. But, it’s a very stressful life right now as a tree or bush in the Boston area (unless you’re getting watered).

    1. Joshua, I think at least part of the reason may be that our region has been in a general dry spell for the last 8 to 10 years. Definitely not a severe one, as we don’t really get that in this part of the country (like CA, for example) but the tendency since around 2013 has been for drier over wetter. This culminated in 2016 and again this year with the droughts. So as far as regionally, that longer-term impact is being seen with some trees / vegetation now.

    1. Yes, indeed, TK, glad she did well.

      Also, thanks for the bigger picture. It has been a relatively dry period since 2013. Of course, the summer of 2021 was an anomaly.

      1. Yes, in that time frame it was one of the anomalies.
        2020 wasn’t overly dry either. At least there were a lot more shower and thunderstorm episodes. It seemed like Nate & I were chasing twice a week in 2020!

        Anyway after tomorrow’s threat, which favors areas away from the South Coast & South Shore of MA as well as RI, it’s quiet again other than a few showers/storms at some point between Friday afternoon and the early hours of Saturday, depending on the timing of the front.

        We get a shot of rather refreshing air for the start of the weekend behind that front! Might stay in the 70s at Boston Saturday. What I’m not sure of yet as how quickly we return the moisture to the region in terms of slightly higher humidity. Maybe as early as Sunday. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no, but you know guidance….endless source of amusement for us meteorologists and enthusiasts. 😉

        Just for the heck of it, here are my forecast high temps for Logan for the next 10 days, starting with tomorrow…
        8/23: 79
        8/24: 81
        8/25: 88
        8/26: 87
        8/27: 77
        8/28: 79
        8/29: 79
        8/30: 81
        8/31: 83
        9/1: 68

        Ok who wants to save these and verify later? 😉

    1. That was a mesoscale low which the short-range guidance actually had forecast quite well. Only the placement was off.

      Those types of small circulations are not unusual for the setup we had today. I saw about three different ones moving through the region during the course of the day.

      1. I knew you’d referred to it. I just thought it was Interesting that Tom referred to something similar.

        1. Tom is very good at picking out such things. I know he’s a great teacher but I think he had two callings. 😉

  47. Light rain commenced here about a half hour ago. Still ongoing. Certainly enough to wet things up a bit. If this could go on for a few more hours that would be nice.

  50. We finally have a typhoon in the West Pacific, first one in over 6 weeks. It’s southeast of Japan, forecast to head north, then northeast out into the open waters of the North Pacific without impacting land. So, why am I mentioning it? Recurving typhoons tend to alter the upper-air pattern downstream over North America a couple of weeks later. Indeed, both the GFS and European Ensembles are showing hints that the ridge starts to build out West and a trough develops in the East toward the beginning of September. That would bring an end to summer. On the latest 46-day European Ensemble, issued early Monday, Of the 51 members of that Ensemble, a total of 2 have a high of 90 or higher in Boston after September 6. Several have highs in the 50s as early September 17. None of the 51 members have a low below 40 in Boston through the end of the run (October 5).

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