Tuesday August 23 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

108 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

A pretty decent production of rainfall by the warm front portion of our low pressure system yesterday resulting in up to a few inches of rain in the jackpot areas of southeastern MA, especially Plymouth County. Other areas enjoyed the benefit of 0.50 to 1.50 inch but there were some “have-nots” that ended up under the 0.50 inch mark. Such is the nature of summertime rain. But in general, a helpful event for the drought. We’re far from ending it, but anything we get is definitely a positive. And some areas are in for more today. But this time the activity, associated with an approaching cold front, will be more in the form of classic showers and thunderstorms. After a morning that starts out with lots of clouds, areas of fog, and a cool mugginess, the wind will pick up and help clear us out at least somewhat, and enough to get some decent daytime heating. We’ll see some initial showers and possible thunderstorms pop up in a south southwest air flow well ahead of the cold front, and some of these can cause brief downpours. These will be around from midday through the first part of the afternoon. Later in the afternoon and into evening, a couple or a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms will have more of a west-to-east movement across our region, with activity most favored west of and up to the I-95 corridor, with less of a chance of the activity pushing into southeastern MA and RI before it has weakened and is in the process of dissipating. The frontal boundary will pass by the region by late evening but may linger a bit just offshore Wednesday, which will feature some additional clouds. Also, a little disturbance passing by to the north may trigger a couple isolated pop-up afternoon showers mainly over interior locations later in the day, but the probability of any location seeing that is very low. High pressure will dominate the weather Thursday with very warm, dry air. Friday, the high pushes offshore and a cold front approaches. It will be a very warm and slightly more humid day and with the approach of the front, add in the chance for a shower or thunderstorm, current timing favoring those being west and north of Boston later in the day with areas to the southeast only seeing remnant showers sometime in the evening or night. Either way, the front pushes through and high pressure from Canada builds to our north and sends a cooling north to northeast wind into our area to start the weekend, with fair weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, favoring areas in the I-95 corridor westward. Any storms can lead to brief road / parking lot flooding. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be variable and briefly gusty around any shower or storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Very slight shower threat interior areas afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible evening. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Ironed out the uncertainty and August 28 looks like it will be a nice finish to the final weekend of August with high pressure shifting east of New England, fair weather and a southeasterly air flow, keeping the coast coolest while it warms nicely inland. Fair and slightly more humid weather August 29 and then we’ll watch for a frontal boundary to approach the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat sometime between late August 30 and late August 31 – timing uncertain, and a possible shot of cool/dry air to start September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Early indications are for high pressure to dominate the first several days of September with dry weather, starting seasonable then warming up.

108 thoughts on “Tuesday August 23 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  1. We finally have a typhoon in the West Pacific, first one in over 6 weeks. It’s southeast of Japan, forecast to head north, then northeast out into the open waters of the North Pacific without impacting land. So, why am I mentioning it? Recurving typhoons tend to alter the upper-air pattern downstream over North America a couple of weeks later. Indeed, both the GFS and European Ensembles are showing hints that the ridge starts to build out West and a trough develops in the East toward the beginning of September. That would bring an end to summer. On the latest 46-day European Ensemble, issued early Monday, Of the 51 members of that Ensemble, a total of 2 have a high of 90 or higher in Boston after September 6. Several have highs in the 50s as early September 17. None of the 51 members have a low below 40 in Boston through the end of the run (October 5).

    3. Thanks! I always remember looking for pattern altering events related to Western Pacific typhoons.

  2. Thanks TK. 1.08 here yesterday. The one cell around 7:30 last night produced over half an inch in 20 mins.

  3. In terms of potential tropical activity, the majority of the ones that do develop the wave moving off of Africa in a few days have it recurve safely out in the Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Logan was one of the “have-nots” at 0.44 inch.

    Maybe they do better this afternoon. We will see.

    2. Thanks TK

      1.20 here. All but a short period in the afternoon was a moderate to gentle rain. Very nice

  11. Jimmy, you will be happy to know that the Dallas Cowboys are the #1 most valuable NFL franchise. 🙂

    The Patriots are ranked #2. I’ll take it. 🙂

    1. I don’t care how valuable they are unless I’m gonna buy them, which I’m not. Haha!!

      Just give me a good season. 🙂

      1. I was somewhat surprised at the Cowboys considering they haven’t even been to the SB in eons it seems. It’s probably “the name” of team and it’s former rich history more than anything.

  12. I am hoping for a good season for the Cowboys. I am thinking 8-9 9-8 season. Madden 23 has the Cowboys at 12-5 with Dak Prescott winning the MVP. Dak is going to have less to work with for offensive weapons after trading Amari Cooper to the Browns in the offseason and losing Cedric Wilson to free agency. The Cowboys need to cut down on the penalties after leading the league in penalties last season.

  15. Hoping a lot of areas at home get some rain again today.

    It’s your typical 91-92F, 76F-77F dew point with 100-104F heat indice day in Boca.

  16. Wound up with 0.31 inch here – total for the day yesterday.

    I see that Logan had a bit more. But nothing like what some towns got, including Plymouth, but also Providence.

    I’m about to do a long run after my morning meetings. I’ll report on the state of the vegetation. It’s bound to look a bit better than it did, even with only a 0.31 inch drink.

      1. I’ve noticed many trees have given up for the summer. They have either dropped their (green) leaves like yours or turned burnt orange.

  17. A bit of very light mist earlier. With the still mostly cloudy skies, can decent showers even develop?

  18. Before everyone starts going crazy over the 12z GFS with a major hurricane in the Gulf, it has minimal support from the ensemble.

        1. I don’t look at the Ensemble mean when it comes to tropicals, because even if they all show it, if the placement and strength are different, the mean will wash it all out. You have to look at the individual members, and only a couple show a storm even remotely similar to what the operational shows.

    1. The flamingo story!!
      I have to show this to my friend from Leominster. They are obsessed with flamingos out there. 😀

    1. Not sure what part of town that was by I ended up with .92 today but Attleboro ended up with 6+ and Rehoboth 7. Crazy. Might have been the southern part of North Attleboro

  26. My computer has said “rain coming” for many hours now and nothing has happened. By the way, the “rain coming” has appeared on my computer – bottom bar – periodically for weeks now. I am serious. And, rain has rarely occurred over that time period.

    In any case, after my 6 mile run I can attest to the fact that it did rain yesterday. There were a few residual small puddles. But, it wasn’t much. Vegetation looked just as stressed as before. Of course, 0.31 inch isn’t going to change things overnight. Hopefully we’ll get some rain later today and this evening. It sure looks like it’s going to rain. But again, it’s looked that way pretty much all day, with not a single drop falling from the sky.

    I read somewhere that “foliage will be late this year.” That, folks, is wrong. Foliage will be relatively early this year. I can already see it on my runs. In addition to trees just shedding leaves or having leaves turn brown, some trees are already turning bright colors (especially the ones that turn yellow), well ahead of schedule. Of course, this will vary from locale to locale, and region to region. The rain deficit in Boston is much worse than, say, Attleboro or Plymouth or the Merrimack Valley. Also, NNE has enjoyed beneficial rains recently which will help them have a more normal foliage season.

    1. I posted above the radar run where rain sure looked to hit us. It never did. Well we got 0.04 but what was headed this way was loaded with thunder and lightning. Nada

      North and captain stole it 😉 😉

      I agree re foliage. I am now wondering if we will even have foliage this year. I see so many brown, dried up leaves covering lawns already

  34. Vicki my mom was coming back with a friend and could not come up a street in Waterbury with flooding. She was telling me cars were turning around. Waterbury under a flash flood warning now which is no surprise.

  35. So much for the July/Aug driest. It seems like everywhere in my travels today there is flooding and or torrential downpours. Very wet day.

    1. Where have you been? There are quite a few areas that did not get that much rain either, so you cannot just blanket statement “so much for the July / August driest”. There are still some dry records to be challenged, pending upcoming weather obviously.

      Blanket statement seldom work, especially with summertime convective activity. There are places that got 3-4 inches of rain yesterday that will still be in moderate to severe drought next update.

  36. Wow! Some crazy loud thunder and heavy rain down here in Plymouth. Lost power at work but thankfully (or maybe not thankfully) we have a generator.

    1. That one will push you up around or over 1/2 inch .. maybe even a bit more. It has enough left to catch you with some good rain I believe.

      1. Yay. I sure hope we actually get it. Too many have knocked on our door and poof. Earlier today also.

        Also I’ll take the smaller amounts vs deluges. Much better for the vegetation. Although deluges help the water areas

  40. Literally right now I can almost count the drops falling out of the sky. And this `shower’ has been of short duration. The sky is brightening already. My computer says “rain to stop.” Well, computer, it never really rained, so don’t tell me the rain is about to stop.

    Can’t imagine that the miss part of hit-or-miss is only in Boston. Vicki mentioned Sutton having only had 0.5. There have got to be towns in metro Boston that have also received only a pittance of rain today.

    No question many places will still be in drought. In Boston itself, the total amount of rain for today and yesterday can’t be more than 0.46 (at Logan), and it’s been less here in Back Bay. That’s not even a dent in the precipitation deficit, quite frankly.

    1. There are other towns. Dave e tweeted he was selling home in the dresser. I think it was in holliston area but not positive.

      We hear about the areas that are getting extreme numbers which makes sense. I’m about to post one below

    2. Literally Boston has been the VERY ISOLATED spot to not receive rainfall. I mean we can go city by city. But imo it’s unfortunate that the news media goes by Boston when many areas got a very good drink of water.

      1. You remind me of someone who used to be on this blog. I can’t put my finger on it but it’s eerily similar 🙂

      2. You’re quite wrong “Olive”. Boston was not a “very isolated spot” to receive rainfall. They had rainfall there. The amounts were much lower than in the jackpot areas. There were plenty of places that got over an inch, and in some cases several inches of rainfall during the last 2 days. But there were also a whole lot of locations that did not receive more than 1/2 inch of rain, and in some cases far less than that. This was not a widespread big event. It was a widespread light to moderate event with swaths of heavy to very heavy rain.

        Helpful? Absolutely.
        Drought ending? Absolutely not.

  43. Lightning show was great. We ended up with 0,11 (Mac’s angel number) from This with a total of .018 so far today. You were right, TK, it didnt miss us.

    1. I hoped it would give you a bit more rain but it started to shrink up a bit. At least you got something out of it! I’m about to get a light shower out of the anvil precip downwind. I’ve heard 2 or 3 distant deep rumbles of thunder to the south, which originated in the anvil of that area of storms.

      1. I got exactly what I hoped for. Thunder and a lighting show. And a bonus of some more rain. You did good.

  44. My computer has said “rain coming” for an hour. It ain’t raining. Maybe it will, but stop teasing me.

  45. Can someone tell me why there is a rain delay at Fenway? Besides a few spit drops, It hasn’t rained here all day. I’m 2 miles from the park. Is it raining there? Or, do they just need the practice of doing the tarp thing?

  47. We are 5 days away from tying and 6 days away from breaking the record for the longest period of time without a named tropical system in the Atlantic. NOTE: Records go back to 1950 (72 years).

    Here is the list of the 5 least active periods as of today (August 23), courtesy a colleague of mine…

    1962 – 56 days
    2022 – 51 days (and counting)
    1994 – 43 days
    1991 – 42 days
    1997 – 40 days
    1961 – 40 days

    All of these years ended with a below or well below average number of storms, except for 1961, which had an extremely active end of August onward and finished above average. So it remains to be seen where 2022 finishes, but with only two current disturbances, both of which are rated with only a 20% chance of development during the next 5 days, it’s increasingly likely 2022 will move into first place on the list of longest period without a named storm.

    There is a long way to go in the season though. The climate peak is September 10, and the season runs until the end of November, so a lot can change between now and then.

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