Thursday August 25 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

Pretty typical late summer weather will be ours as we head down the home stretch of August. First, high pressure provides a fair and warm day today with low to moderate humidity. This high slips offshore and the humidity comes up a bit, but shy of oppressive levels, on Friday. We’ll see a few air mass showers and thunderstorms start to pop up during the afternoon, and the approach of a cold front can help organize some of these showers and storms into line segments scattered around the area later in the day and into the evening hours. We’ll have to watch for a few strong to locally severe storms, but it will not be a widespread outbreak of severe weather. If you have outdoor plans, just keep a close watch on the sky and a reliable radar app if possible. The actual cold front will probably not clear the region until sometime early Saturday morning but I do think any shower activity will be limited to practically non-existent once the evening activity is gone. Saturday itself turns out to be a nice day, but noticeably cooler with a northerly to easterly air flow as high pressure bridges itself from the Great Lakes to northern Maine, centered in the St. Lawrence Valley. This high will bubble eastward and bring us an easterly to southeasterly air flow on Sunday, a day that will feature a few clouds but fair weather, a tiny increase in humidity (hardly noticeable), coolest but comfortable on the coast, and a little warmer over the interior away from the ocean’s effect. High pressure remains in control Monday, but centered to our east it will provide a southerly wind with a little more warmth and humidity here.

TODAY: Patchy clouds early morning interior southern MA and parts of CT/RI, otherwise mostly sunny, then additional cloud patches west to east later. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 Cape Cod & immediate coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90. Dew point climbing through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog and isolated showers overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW overnight.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A shot of very warm to hotter air for the final 2 days of August, but the timing of a frontal boundary is uncertain for both showers and thunderstorms as well as an air mass change. There will be details to iron out. Dry weather for the first few days of September, starting cooler then warming up.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

There’s a little uncertainty in the pattern as some tropical activity from the western Pacific may have a hand in altering the pattern currently shown on medium range guidance. For now, calling for a mainly dry weather pattern with some up and down temperatures and only briefly unsettled weather at some point during the period. Will iron out the details with time.

55 thoughts on “Thursday August 25 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Dp in Savannah GA this morning 75F. Evidently dragging it north with us.

    I’ll try to leave it behind as we continue north today 🙂 🙂

      1. Tom, why have you been torturing yourself with spending your vacation in the south? Not that it’s been totally comfy up here either. 🙂

  10. The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 crossed the region 487 years ago today. Had this storm hit today, the damage would be utterly incredble. It followed a track similar to Bob, but about 25 miles farther N/W. This put Providence on the strong side of the storm and Boston in the eyewall. It was estimated to be a Category 3 at landfall – one of 6 storms to make landfall in New England as a Category 3 storm. (The others are the Great September Gale of 1815, Redfield’s Hurricane of 1821, Saxby’s Gale in 1869, the Long Island Express in 1938, and Carol in 1954).

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1562786887063900160?s=20&t=4NX6Hp6X71n7H9iimyUimQ

      1. We are not. But then I often wonder about areas more prone. After hugo, the powers that be said homes along the shoreline on Isle of Palms would not be rebuilt. They have not only been rebuilt but they have two to three new houses in front of (ocean side) where the ones destroyed homes stood.

        1. That is concerning.
          I’ve often said how $ and taking chances seems to outweigh what should be more of a priority.

        2. While I think building closer and closer to the ocean is foolish, I wonder if there is a way to really adequately prepare. Kenny Chesney’s home on St John was destroyed. It had hurricane upgrades including windows that were supposed to withstand up to 200 mph winds. He wasn’t there at the time but had opened his home to neighbors and friends because it was supposed to be safer.

  15. That is scary that New England isn’t equipped to withstand a CAT-3 hurricane. How is it that the island of Bermuda gets through most hurricanes so relatively unscathed? All these years I don’t recall their government ever requesting assistance from the U.S. or other countries. I also don’t recall them reporting all that many deaths either. Much like our major blizzards, they merely clean up and move on with their lives in a few days.

    1. Taken directly from the Bermuda Weather Service website:

      “It is also important to note that construction methods in Bermuda show a respect for the weather. Bermuda buildings are built of stone blocks with heavy stone roofs designed to withstand damaging winds. This helps explain the fact that there have been few if any fatalities in Bermuda in recent years associated with storm damage to buildings. Seawater inundation from storm surge is also not exacerbated by the local coastal topography; geographically speaking, Bermuda is a single peak rising from the deep ocean bed. Therefore, most of the surge flows past the Island and does not “pile up” as in locations with shelving coastlines.”

      1. Should have added the next paragraph too:

        “However, there needs to be an ongoing support of public awareness of, and preparedness for, the potentially devastating effects on Bermuda of a direct hit by a major hurricane (Cat 3 or above). It can take decades for a storm of this intensity to directly affect the Island – the last was Hurricane Nicole on 13 October 2016; prior to that was Hurricane Fabian on 5 September 2003. Damaging Hurricane Emily was only a Category I Hurricane, when it swiftly passed over Bermuda in the early hours of 24 September 1987. “

  18. Thank you, TK. Question for you or or if anyone knows? We are tent camping near Newburyport all next week, and wondering about those thunderstorm chances. Our only concern is the lightning. Does that look like a possibility for Tuesday? or Wednesday?

    Just trying to ratchet down the anxiety here. We can hop in the cars if needed to sit it out. I’m sure Major Tom can relate, except I believe he has a camper. We only have that thin sheet of nylon overhead, lol.

    1. I can’t help but sure understand the anxiety. Here’s hoping for a fun filled, storm free week ❤️

    2. It’s a long way off and I’m frankly split 50/50 between Tuesday and Wednesday. Some guidance has the main front coming through Tuesday while other guidance has it Wednesday. Not a dilemma I haven’t seen. So right now I would just keep in mind that there’s the possibility of something around either of those two days and possibly both. If you come up with a backup plan for shelter if you need it I would highly recommend that. And then just pay attention as we fine-tune getting closer to it.

      1. Does that mean our best shot at genuine widespread soakings?

        Also, what about tomorrow, especially for Boston?

      2. Thank you TK – much appreciated.

        We are relatively safety-aware, but we probably should talk over our backup options. That’s a great suggestion. And of course check into the latest on WHW!

  19. I saw a graphic from a colleague today showing the temperature for the month of July for the southern hemisphere upper atmosphere (10mb) being as much as 18° F below normal (not -18° for the entire hemisphere but departures that were up to that level). My colleague theorizes, and I agree, that such large departures are directly correlated to the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption earlier this year. Many portions of the southern hemisphere have been seeing some of their coldest weather in a long time and that will probably translate into a very cool summer as well.

    If you recall, something similar occurred, except primarily in the northern hemisphere, after the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the early 1990s.

  20. Personally I always think of the ‘Southern New Hurricane’ season as a 8 week stretch (August 1st-September 30th). Its when we have to pay close attention to these warm core tropical systems . Imo severe weather/ tornado warnings bring out the most in a weather junkie like myself. The adrenaline rush can go from 0-10 in minutes. Hurricane warnings are a close 2nd. 3rd are Blizzard warnings with winds at 50mph with 2-3 inches per hour for 12 hours. I love all 3.

    3. You can narrow those dates down a little more. New England/Long Island has had a landfalling hurricane 18 times in the past 170 years. Of the 18, 15 occurred between August 19 and September 27. The only ones outside that range are:

      Belle 8/9/1976
      Saxby’s Gale 10/4/1869
      Unnamed Storm 10/10/1894

      1. This is very similar in some ways to knowing which parts of the country are most prone to tornadoes at certain times of “tornado season”. Of course there are always things that fall outside of that but it’s a good general rule.

    4. Recently you stated you hated winter.
      Our thunderstorms are pretty good up here sometimes but there’s nothing like a Texas one. 😉

      1. AFAIC, the sun angle in August is the same as the sun angle in…August. 😉

        It still doesn’t make a 90 degree day in any month feel any better.

        1. There’s definitely a notable difference based on sun angle. This is just a scientific fact. The comfort level also has a lot to do with humidity, which statistically is higher in August than June.

            1. Depends on the air mass. We reside in the mid latitudes which are dominated by the westerlies. We can have high humidity or low humidity, and anything in between. Hurricane season doesn’t directly dictate our humidity up here. It’s more just seasonal climatology.

              Some Septembers we have great weather, modest humidity, lots of fair weather. There have been Septembers where we have been muggy and wet with a predominant flow out of the tropics and up the East Coast. Others, like 1981, where we had a lot of cool/dry air from Canada. Then FF 2 years to 1983 and we blazed in heat (but not too much humidity). That’s the thing about here – variety among a general idea of how the progression always goes.

Comments are closed.