Sunday August 28 2022 Forecast (8:20AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Early this morning a stratus blanket sits over much of the region but this has already been eroding from east to west so that many eastern MA and RI areas as well as the NH Seacoast are seeing sunshine, and this is progressing inland with time and this general trend will continue. Although a few clouds may be stubborn in some areas and others can redevelop in the form of cumulus clouds as the sun’s heating increases, similar to yesterday. All in all, we end up with a sun/cloud mix but a rather nice day, thanks to high pressure centered to our east. This high will slip southward into the “Bermuda High” position to start off the week, so our heat and humidity levels will increase Monday into Tuesday, but not close to the levels of previous hot spells this summer. Also, it will be rather short-lived as a cold front approaches and passes through the region between late Tuesday and midday Wednesday, based on current expected timing. This timing is limiting for showers and thunderstorms, with most activity during the day Tuesday to our west and north, diminishing before it arrives in this area, and most of Wednesday’s activity firing up to our east if the front is quick enough, and possibly over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI if the front is just a little slower, with activity favoring the morning and midday. Today’s forecast update will take into account either possibility and then of course it will be fine-tuned as we get closer with the help of short-range guidance early in the week. Thursday is the first day of September and on cue a Canadian high pressure area will deliver us a fresh air mass from our neighbors to the north, for the first day of meteorological autumn.

TODAY: Clouds dominate inland areas and parts of the South Coast early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 67-73. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers possible favoring southern and eastern areas early in the day. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible through midday southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s but lowering slowly. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to dominate with fair weather and a slow warming trend from September 2-5 which includes all of Labor Day Weekend. A frontal boundary may get closer with higher humidity and a shower threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

A frontal boundary may be close by early in the period with a shower threat, then high pressure takes over with another stretch of fair weather, starting cooler than warming up. We may have to watch the waters to our south and/or southeast for a tropical system out there by later in the period as there are signs of a little more activity in the tropics in the days to come and somewhat more reliable medium range guidance has been putting systems out there around that time. At this time of year it’s always necessary to pay attention to this regardless of how quiet or active the season has been thus far.

75 thoughts on “Sunday August 28 2022 Forecast (8:20AM)”

  3. One thing I did not mention in the discussion but will here. The drought may have gotten some reduction recently in certain areas from our shower and thunderstorm activity, but by no means is it close to being broken, and with a drier overall outlook in the days ahead, I highly suspect it will worsen further into September. This drought is not “historic” by any stretch, but it’s serious enough to have agricultural and some water supply impact, similar to 2016, and it’s hard to tell at this point when we’ll get into a pattern that is enough to reduce it / eliminate it.

  4. Thanks, TK. Great discussion. Warming trends in September are fine by me. Summer-like days and cooler nights….

  7. Thank you, TK. Yesterday was glorious. Thank you for your help deciding which day to have our small celebration in memory of my sister-in-law.

    2. I drove through it, starting in northern New Hampshire around 7:30 or 8 and ending outside of Boston around 11. One of the scarier three hours of my life…. (Had my three year old in the backseat). Felt like a big deal based on that experience…

    3. Not a big deal? You have a very bad memory then. Make sure you look at that WMUR link. Since you supposedly live in NH now, Chuckles, you should have planned this reply much better. Not that I haven’t been onto you since your first message here a few months ago. You’ve had your fun here this time, but now it’s time to say goodbye. And yes I am aware of your “operatives” as well. Maybe they are not such the good friends you think they are. 😉

      I hear there are some great weather blogs in Texas. Check them out! 😉

      1. And I thought MY weather memory was bad. Irene brought down quite a number of branches in my neighborhood.

        What part of the state did you live in at the time, Olive?

  11. Thanks, TK!

    Last day of summer vacation! Two teacher days tomorrow and Tuesday and then the rest of the week with students. My 40th year in the classroom.

    If I am not mistaken, Irene knocked out 100% of the power to Foxborough for a couple of days where Mrs. Fantastic was a teacher.

  12. Captain Fantastic wishing you nothing but the best for the upcoming school year as well as Tom and all other teachers.

    1. Thanks, JJ, and to everyone for your kind words and support throughout the years here. Let’s hope and pray for calmer times ahead for our students and schools so we can get back to normal (whatever that is these days!!!) 🙂

      1. Thanks! That was a magical evening up there after I drove up to intercept storms coming toward the seacoast. First there was the storm’s approach, the storm itself (although the core went just to our north there were some decent lightning strikes), the follow-up downpours that kept everyone under the overhang for a while. I literally counted down to the end of that when I was watching the live radar, then walked out to get a few shots of a shallow fog that rolled in from the water just as the clouds were breaking overhead, and then a bit later the epic sunset. Those cumulus clouds in the photo built further into thunderstorms near the southern Maine Coast a bit later and gave us some more distant lightning to view. 🙂

  17. Hey Tk I gotta hand it to ya! been following since the WBZ blog days, wow has it been that long???!!! Nobody described the evolution of the sky cover like you, the erosion of the low clouds from coast inland, still seeing them in interior NH but elsewhere as you described they would redevelop in the form of fair weather cumulus due to sun’s heating and that is exactly what i have witnessed through the morning!! it’s sunnier near the coast, and that is from more stable air there now now allowing the clouds to re form so easily. excellent forecasting, mate! going back to my lurker status again, until next time, DOH!

    1. Thanks! I appreciate your kind words and colorful posts, even if you only step out of the shadows once in a while. DOH!!! 😀

  19. Thanks TK.

    Best of luck to all the teachers here! 🙂

    So sorry though for your students who have to return BEFORE Labor Day. I had to return to Community College the last week of August myself but there is a difference between a late teens college student and a 1st grader, for example. At least there won’t be too much high heat to start the year this time around.

  20. Just out of curiosity are there teacher shortages up there in Massachusetts? I know in Waterbury there short roughly 100 teachers to start the school year.

    1. Wow. 100. Framingham is short 65 and I thought that was a lot. And bus drivers are short also. I’m not sure of neighboring towns here. I’m out of touch with schools since the the grandkids are homeschooling again but just happened to see a comment on the Framingham FB page

      1. Baker is even considering bringing back the National Guardsmen again to drive buses. I get the impression that there is a greater bus driver shortage but I suspect a teacher shortage to some extent as well.

        1. I’m hearing you are correct about bus drivers. Good catch, Philip.

          I checked with a few out here. There is a teacher shortage. Many kids who are getting their schedules have TBD listed as their teachers.

          1. Oh and nurses are very short. Last year many schools systems had one nurse to cover multiple schools. And they were lucky to have that one

  21. Thanks TK.

    Finally no “Olive Hole” over me this past week! We received about 0.75″ of rain Monday, over 2″ in the storms Tuesday and over 1″ in the storms Friday. About a months worth of rain in a week and over 4″ for August will ensure an above average precip month for us. May need some tropical activity to duplicate that in September.

    My landscaping has recovered nicely but the lawn still looks like crap. Grass is dead but of course the weeds and crabgrass are flourishing!

    1. Welcome home. How was Alaska. Bunnies are our flowers. Field mice eating tomatoes and other veggies. Lawn looks like crap and I am kicking myself for not paying better attention to Ace.

      Olive hole. Clever and funny.

      1. Vicki, the trip to Seattle and cruise to Alaska was great and the weather really cooperated for the most part. Glacier Bay was spectacular and I took a ton of pictures. Also got some great shots of Rainier, Mt S Helens and Mt Hood on the plane on the way back. I will post some pictures in the next couple days when I get a chance.

        Unfortunately I came back with Covid, so have been under the weather a good portion of the week but I’m feeling much better this weekend.

        1. Oh no Mark. That is an awful way to end a perfect trip. I hope you feel better and your family stays well.

          I look forward to seeing your photos.

    1. Just an heartbreaking hurricane. All hurricanes are I know but when the news started to report that the levees were starting to fail I remember feeling heartsick.

  24. Mark, that “Olive Hole” as you call it has certainly been over the city of Boston this entire summer. Good rains to the west and good rains just to the east/southeast of the Harbor. Logan can’t seem to get even a half inch. The most I believe has been 0.44” in any given storm. The next highest was 0.40” iirc.

  26. So are we certain that “Olive” is old friend “Charlie”? TK doesn’t usually get fooled by that old trick.

    1. We have at least two more just this week alone. Not that I want 90s but you can never rule out September, or even a sneaky 1 or 2 in October.

      That would make it a close call for 30 set in 1983. Logan officially has 20 to date. Do the math. 🙁

  28. Awesome beach ⛱️ day here at Roger Wheeler State Beach here along the south coast of Rhode Island. Not a cloud in the sky 76° ocean temp the water is Chrystal clear hardly a speck of seaweed.

    1. Sounds wonderful. It often seems that when the water gets warmer, bugs and seaweed increase. I love that isn’t the case.

      Enjoy!!!!!

  29. I have not heard about any major staff shortages in my school, district or the area. I spoke with my principal last week and there weren’t any staff resignations that he didn’t already know about or aniticpate. I can give you an update after teacher meetings tomorrow.

    Tom, have a great first week and school year! 🙂

    2. That is very good news. It will make for a much more consistent year.

      I’m sure wishing for a much much better year for you and Tom and All teachers in whw as well as school staff and of course the kiddos.

      I know there are other teachers on whw. I sincerely apologize for not recalling names :/

    1. Yes, I recall that it weakened to a Cat 3 just before landfall. As bad as it was in New Orleans, it could have been worse.

  31. 18z GFS is having some fun developing those tropical systems out in the Atlantic. Sends the lead system into Brownsfield TX as a major hurricane a week from Tuesday and sends the followup system on a left hook that makes landfall with South Carolina and then sends the remnant depression up the coast delivering some heavy rains to SNE around 9/10.

    Hour 198:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022082818&fh=198

    Hour 312:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022082818&fh=312

    I’m sure 0z is conjuring up a different solution but either way, looks like the tropics are finally waking up and there should be a few things to track in the next couple weeks.

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